Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitney, TX

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

While there is a threat of strong to severe storms today and tomorrow, the threat in our forecast area will be isolated and largely confined to areas northwest of D/FW.

Our entire forecast area is in an expansive open warm sector with a dryline over West Texas. Ahead of the dryline, an open gulf is promoting dense stratus that has pooled underneath a hearty cap that was based around 880 mb on this morning's sounding. Modest lift from heating will deepen the boundary layer this afternoon (latest aircraft sounding now has the cap around 860 mb), but the absence of a more robust source of lift will limit deep convection to areas near the dryline later today and this evening. The dryline is forecast advance as far east as about Fredrick to Snyder even down to the Big Bend region of Texas this afternoon by the time thunderstorms initiate. Above the cap, quite steep lapse rates and sufficient shear exist for supercells to develop quickly, well to the west of our forecast area. The storms should advance east-northeast off the boundary, likely growing upscale into a few clusters or bowing segments overnight. These are the storms that should move into the western parts of our forecast area this evening, not the robust initial supercells that are driving SPC's Enhanced risk to our northwest.

The storms that move into our area this evening will be driven by their own cold pools and moving into an increasingly stable environment, particularly after about 10 pm local. So while a few storms/clusters will be able to break the cap with the help of their own cold pool, expect storms to decay as they advance east toward the I-35 corridor. While not explicitly mentioned above, we will also have to watch storms currently near the Big Bend area that could move into Western Central Texas late tonight/early tomorrow morning. The same caveats about moving into an increasingly stable environment also apply to these storms.

Another warm and humid night, under dense gulf stratus, is forecast tonight as the dryline retreats west. There is a chance of scattered elevated showers, perhaps a few thunderstorms, across North Texas tomorrow morning. The lift causing these storms should be diffuse and broad, so pinpointing the exact location of this activity is difficult, even at this time range. Given how steep the lapse rates aloft are, we can't rule out a few instances of large hail if robust updrafts are able to organize.

There should be a lull in activity in the late morning into early afternoon before thunderstorm activity ramps back up later in the day. The dryline is forecast to nudge a little further east tomorrow, stalling near Wichita Falls to Abilene with a triple point in SW Oklahoma. We expect another round of storms to develop near/east of the dryline (especially near the triple point) that move east-northeast through the evening, weakening overnight. A majority of the CAMs initiate simulated reflectivity returns, that appear to be thunderstorms, in the open warm sector tomorrow afternoon along and east of the I-35 corridor, but forecast soundings don't really support deep/surface-based convection. It appears that most of the simulated reflectivity blobs are showers initiated within the boundary layer, while the deepest/strongest convection remains to our west/northwest near the dryline. We'll be watching to see if the low-level stratus thins out and promotes stronger surface heating, which would help a few more updrafts break the cap ahead of the dryline. The chance of this is around 10-20% if I had to put a number on it. All of this to say, while there is another threat of strong to severe storms again tomorrow, the severe threat in our area should be isolated and largely confined to areas northwest of D/FW.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Subtle ridging aloft is forecast to move over the state on Thursday, choking thunderstorm chances as we head into Thursday.
Even though the surface pattern remains unchanged (staying in the warm sector with a dryline to our west), we do not have any precip mentioned in the forecast Thursday. As a result, it should be a warm to hot day with high temps in the upper 80s and heat index values in the low 90s. Similar weather is forecast Friday, but a little cooler high temperatures as the wind field backs out out of the south-southeast.

A cold front is forecast to slide down the plains Friday night, moving through North and Central Texas Saturday. This will be a rather strong cold front for this time of the year, lowering highs from the upper 80s on Thursday to the low 70s/upper 60s Saturday and Sunday. After about a week of sustained southerly flow, the front will be able to squeeze some rain out of the atmosphere.
Most of the activity will develop near the front and last for only a couple hours before moving south. Average rain amounts Saturday are generally less than 0.25" due to the quick-moving and light nature of the precip. A reinforcing high pressure system will move into the region Sunday night and Monday, keeping below-normal temperatures in place early next week. Southerly flow returns by Tuesday, bringing temperatures to near the seasonal norms by the middle parts of next week. We'll have to watch for quick-moving systems moving across the region that develop precip, but those details will come into focus a little later.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A blanket of high MVFR/low VFR ceilings overspreads all TAF sites at this time. Expect the ceilings to slowly lift over the course of the afternoon, becoming VFR at all terminals in the hour or two near sunset. Scattered storms are forecast to develop well west of the D10 terminals that may impact Bowie arrivals and potentially Glen Rose arrivals this evening, but we expect the storms to dissipate before reaching D10.

Another round of low MVFR stratus is expected tonight/tomorrow morning. Although we did not include it in the TAF, there is a ~30% chance of high IFR ceilings between ~12-16Z.

We did not include any precip in the TAFs for tomorrow. The large scale sources of lift are too displaced from the TAF sites and we simply do not have enough confidence of direct terminal impacts at this time. Future TAFs will monitor the trends and add precip as warranted.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 69 81 67 / 20 40 50 40 Waco 82 68 79 67 / 10 10 40 30 Paris 81 67 79 65 / 20 30 50 70 Denton 81 67 80 65 / 20 50 60 30 McKinney 81 68 80 66 / 20 40 50 50 Dallas 84 69 81 67 / 20 30 50 40 Terrell 82 68 81 66 / 20 10 50 50 Corsicana 84 69 84 68 / 20 10 40 40 Temple 83 68 83 67 / 10 10 30 30 Mineral Wells 82 66 81 64 / 20 50 60 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.