Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitney, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: There is currently a relative minimum in showery activity across the CWA as we await a more widespread round of rain later today which is beginning to take shape to our west. While a couple of isolated cells have managed to produce lightning flashes overnight, meager instability will make these occurrences very scarce today. Aside from refining short term PoPs based on recent model trends, no significant adjustments were necessary with this morning's update.

-Stalley

Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday/

During the next 36 hours, a mid-level cutoff low will move from southern New Mexico into Texas while becoming reabsorbed within stronger mid-latitude westerlies. As this occurs, this feature will result periodic rain showers, with a couple of distinct rounds of slightly more widespread rainfall. The first of these rounds will arrive this afternoon and evening, and the second will arrive Sunday morning. Outside of these time windows, expect periods of dry time occasionally interrupted by brief light rain showers, similar to the conditions experienced over the past 6 hours. Total weekend rainfall amounts will mostly fall within a range of 0.10" to 0.25".

Mid-level moisture continues to increase ahead of the aforementioned cutoff low, and column moisture is becoming increasingly favorable for rainfall to actually reach the surface after much of the initial activity yesterday fell as virga.
Strengthening low-level southwesterly flow will result in ascent via warm advection, culminating in a batch of more widespread showers spreading from SW to NE through the forecast area during the afternoon and evening time period today. Lapse rates and elevated instability appear rather marginal to support occurrences of lightning, but we cannot completely rule out a couple rumbles of thunder.

Richer near-surface moisture will arrive overnight into Sunday morning while temperatures remain steady in the mid 40s due to overcast skies and low-level warm/moist advection. This setup should result in areas of mist/fog and probably some patchy drizzle, while periodic showers still rooted within the mid- levels continue to stream overhead. A second batch of slightly more widespread rain associated with the nearby upper low's dynamic ascent is likely to fill in from SW to NE beginning before sunrise Sunday morning, traversing the CWA by the afternoon. Veering westerly low-level flow following the trough's passage will result in gradual clearing of skies from west to east during the afternoon, and a few hours of sun will allow some spots to warm into the 60s following a cool and rainy morning.
The entire forecast area should be free of precipitation by Sunday evening.

-Stalley

LONG TERM
/Issued 242 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024/ /Sunday Night Onward/

As precipitation moves farther east and away from the region along with the disturbance responsible for our weekend rain, a larger scale upper trough will be digging southeast from the Great Basin through the southern Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis will take place over Northwest Texas as an attendant frontal system develops ahead of the upper trough. The resulting surface cyclone will slide southeast into western North Texas Sunday night, with a dryline extending south and a cold front extending west from the surface low. Clearing skies, recent rain, and moisture being drawn northward around the eastern flank of the low may lead to fog development for areas along and east of I-35 Sunday night/Monday morning. Some dense fog is possible, but still uncertain 48 hours in advance.

In either case, the surface low will continue sliding southeast as the upper trough digs through the Four Corners region, dissipating any fog by midday Monday. The aforementioned cold front will surge southeast through western North Texas Monday afternoon, and through the rest of the region Monday night, bringing dry, windy and much cooler air into the region for the midweek period. Highs in the 60s and 70s on Monday will drop to the 50s area-wide on Tuesday as the axis of the upper trough moves overhead. Red River counties may end up with highs in the 40s due to strong cold air advection behind the front. North winds may weaken slightly Tuesday night but should still remain in the 15 to 20 MPH range. This combined with temperatures falling into the 30s will create wind chills in the 20s area-wide Tuesday night- Wednesday morning.

The upper trough will swing east through the eastern third of the CONUS on Wednesday, beginning a slow warm-up for the second half of next week as a weak ridge develops in its wake. The cool, dry continental airmass in place will still allow temperatures to dip into the lower and middle 30s Wednesday night, but Thursday temperatures should have little trouble reaching the lower and middle 60s. The pattern will remain unsettled, however, with a shortwave trough entering the West Coast by Thursday. The resulting lee-side surface troughing will generate a fast uptick in return flow Thursday afternoon and evening. A warming trend will continue in advance of this next upper level system, with above-normal temperatures expected Friday and Saturday. The shortwave will move quickly east through the Southern Plains, bringing more rain chances sometime next weekend.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/

Light rain showers will continue on an intermittent basis this morning before becoming more widespread through the afternoon and evening period. While some very isolated lightning activity is possible mainly across Central Texas today, this potential is far too low to carry any thunder in the TAFs due to meager instability. Current cigs near 5-7 kft will progressively lower following the onset of afternoon precipitation, and will become MVFR and eventually IFR overnight. Areas of mist/drizzle may periodically cause visibility category reductions as well heading into Sunday morning. Fairly quick improvement from IFR is expected around 18z Sunday as the arrival of drier air from the west scours low-level moisture while bringing an end to rain chances.
A south wind will prevail through the entirety of the forecast period at speeds below 10 kts.

-Stalley


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 50 47 62 49 68 / 80 60 60 0 0 Waco 48 46 62 49 76 / 70 50 60 5 0 Paris 52 46 55 47 64 / 30 70 80 20 0 Denton 50 44 63 44 66 / 80 60 50 0 0 McKinney 52 45 60 47 68 / 70 60 60 5 0 Dallas 50 46 60 49 67 / 80 60 70 5 0 Terrell 50 46 60 49 70 / 70 70 80 10 0 Corsicana 48 47 62 52 75 / 70 60 80 10 0 Temple 47 46 66 49 79 / 60 40 50 5 0 Mineral Wells 48 44 68 44 68 / 80 40 30 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.