Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilmington Island, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
While the peak cold-air advection is now behind us, temperatures will continue to drop into the lower/mid 20s inland and the lower/mid 30s along the coast, keeping the area-wide Freeze Warning in good shape. These temperatures are pushing into the record low percentiles in regards to climatology for this time of year, per the ensemble situational awareness tables, and will likely result in record low temperatures for the day. While the winds will be decreasing in strength into the morning hours, winds look to remain just blustery enough to result in wind chills in the mid/upper teens to lower 20s degrees, also keeping the Cold Weather Advisory (primarily in place along and west of I-95) in good shape. Be sure to bundle up and wear appropriate clothing (jacket, pants, hat, gloves)
before heading out the door this morning.

Strong radiational heating today won't be enough to get us out of these well-below normal temperatures, and as a result we may also break record low maxes (coldest high temperatures for the date) as temperatures only rebound into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Winds will remain on the lighter side compared to yesterday, as the center of the surface high pressure will be moving into southwestern GA which will relax the surface pressure gradient across the region.

Overnight into Wednesday, the surface high pressure axis slides south of the region, shifting the light winds to become out of southwest. With a strong temperature inversion in place and no cloud coverage, radiational cooling will bring the region back down into the lower 30s along and west of I-95, and mid 30s to lower 40s east of I-95. Given the current expected freeze likely ending the growing season, not anticipating additional Frost or Freeze products at this time. Given the light winds, wind chills look to remain in the lower to mid 20s across the inland areas, thus also not requiring an additional Cold Weather Advisory at this time.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Aloft, zonal flow will return to the region on Wednesday as shortwave tries to pass through on the backside of a amplified upper- lvl trough. At the surface, high pressure will dominate and temperatures will slowly warm back up to near normal. A rain-free forecast has been maintained as the atmosphere remains extremely dry with PWATs ranging near 0.5 inches through the end of the week.
Model guidance continues to indicate that a dry, cold front will push across the region on Thursday morning, but not much impact with this besides another reinforcing surge of dry, cold air into the region. Southwesterly winds could become a bit breezy with speeds ranging from 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of the advancing cold front.
Thereafter, winds should decrease to 5 to 10 mph on Thursday and Friday. Another chilly couple of nights look to be in-store for Wednesday and Thursday with clear skies overhead, however it looks like temperatures will remain above freezing.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As upper-lvl ridging builds into the region through the weekend, quiet and dry conditions will persist through most of the period.
This will result in a progressive warm-up with temperatures returning to near normal on Friday followed by above normal through the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
11.12Z TAFS - VFR throughout the period. West winds will be remaining light at 5 to 10 knots throughout the day. This evening, expect winds to shift to become out of the southwest, remaining light into Wednesday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

MARINE
Today and tonight: Breezy northwest winds will be diminishing throughout the rest of the overnight hours into the morning, which will bring an end to hazardous seas throughout the morning hours, including the 6 ft seas. For the rest of the day, expect the westerly winds to remain light, with seas dropping into 2 to 4 ft range. This evening, expect winds to shift to become out of the southwest, remaining light into Wednesday morning, with seas 1 to 3 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: As a cold front approaches on Wednesday, the pressure gradient could tighten up and lead to the return of Small Craft Advisories on Wednesday as southwesterly winds approach gusts of 25 kt in the nearshore Charleston waters. Seas will range from 2 to 4 ft on Wednesday, before tapering off to 1 to 3 ft through the rest of the period.

FIRE WEATHER
Some fire weather concerns exist for today as RH values drop to around 25%. Additionally, NW wind gusts are forecasted to be around 10 to 15 mph on Tuesday. The rainfall from Sunday evening combined with the below normal temperatures will likely help alleviate some concerns, with partners indicating fuels are not dry enough for a Fire Danger Statement at this time.

CLIMATE
Tonight's freeze will not be the earliest on record for all three climate sites. Below are the records for informational purposes.

KCHS: October 25, 1937 KCXM: November 3, 1954 KSAV: October 27, 1962

Upcoming Record Low Temperatures:

November 11 (Tuesday): KCHS: 29/1943 KCXM: 32/1913 KSAV: 31/1968

November 12 (Wednesday): KCHS: 27/1943 KCXM: 33/1894 KSAV: 30/2011

Upcoming Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

November 11 (Tuesday): KCHS: 54/1968 KCXM: 46/1913 KSAV: 49/1913

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141.
Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ087- 088-099>101-114>116-137-138.
SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ040-042>045- 047>052.
Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for SCZ040- 042>044-047.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ352- 354.
Gale Warning until noon EST today for AMZ374.