Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tybee Island, GA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Tonight: Aloft, a mid-lvl low will continue to meander over the Deep South, advecting deep moisture across a boundary positioned near the SC/GA state line. 0-6 km bulk shear remains around 25-30 kt this evening, but instability is rather weak with the loss of day-time heating, especially inland where rounds of showers and thunderstorms have occurred earlier today. However, MLCAPE near 500-1000 J/kg, ample moisture transport (PWATs 1.7-1.8 inches), and sufficient forcing associated with h5 shortwave energy traversing aloft and isentropic lift across the boundary, will likely lead to rounds of additional showers and thunderstorms overnight, some of which pose a flash flood/flood risk through overnight hours, especially for inland areas of Southeast Georgia into inland areas of Southeast South Carolina where at least 5-7 inches of rainfall has already occurred through the day. Latest radar trends do indicate bands of showers and thunderstorms closing in on I-16, shifting north with time, likely in a sub-severe state given a lack of instability, but capable of producing a few inches of rainfall (isolated higher amounts), followed by another round of precip later tonight. The latest HRRR suggests the most intense rainfall progressing north towards the Tri-County Area later tonight, perhaps occurring more inland from coastal communities before continuing north of the local area within a few hours around daybreak Monday. Overnight lows will remain mild despite precip activity, generally in the mid-upper 60s inland to lower 70s near the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Active, wet weather will continue early this week. A closed mid level low will remain over the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Monday, making some slow northeast progress Monday night.
Shortwave energy will pass over the region ahead of this feature, coincident with unseasonably high PWats, near or possibly in excess of 1.8 inches (which is around climatological maximums). At the surface, a stalled front will linger in the vicinity before finally shifting northward as a broad low moves into the region overnight. Ample large scale forcing and deep moisture will bring another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Additional rainfall amounts on average of 1-2 inches are forecast Monday through Monday night, with potential for locally higher amounts as hinted by HRRR probs of 10% for greater than 3 inches over southeast Georgia. Given a few days of soggy conditions, some flooding could be possible especially in urban and poor-drainage areas and in areas where a large amount of rain falls in a short period of time. In addition, radar will bear watching for a couple strong to possibly severe thunderstorms given some modest instability and shear present.
Locally strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado would be the primary threats. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures cooler than normal.

The mid level low will continue to slowly lift north-northeast towards the Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday, eventually opening up into a trough. Less convective coverage is expected overall than previous days, but there will still be at least scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each day. Higher activity/PoPs should become more focused over South Carolina on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
There will finally be a return to drier weather for late week as high pressure returns both at the surface and aloft. Models indicate a shortwave could pass near or over the Carolinas on Saturday and bring the potential for showers/thunderstorms, but otherwise the forecast is largely dry during this period.
Perhaps more notably will be the warming temperatures. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 90s Friday and Saturday, with even higher heat indices possibly in the 100-105F range in spots.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SAV: Shower and thunderstorms are likely to impact the terminal for much of the night and into early morning hours Monday, producing MVFR/IFR conditions at times. Prevailing IFR cigs should arrive by around 12Z Monday, before gradually improving to MVFR with gusty south-southeast winds upwards to around 20 kt during much of the afternoon.

CHS/JZI: Showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact the terminals within the next few hours, producing rounds of MVFR/IFR conditions through the night. IFR coniditons should prevail at both terminals by around 12Z Monday, before gradually improving to MVFR with gusty south-southeast winds upwards to around 20 kt during the afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: MVFR or lower cigs and/or vsbys possible through Tuesday as a front remains stalled nearby and several rounds of showers/tstms move through.

MARINE
Tonight: A stationary front will meander across our area, yielding southeast winds between 10 to 15 kt with gusts upwards to around 20 kt for much of the night. However, shower and thunderstorms are likely across local waters overnight, some of which could require Marine Weather Statements and/or possibly Special Marine Warnings. Seas will generally average between 2-4 ft nearshore to 3-5 ft across outer Georgia waters, slowly building through late night.

Monday through Friday: A stalled front will linger over the region early this week. Winds/seas will be highest Monday into Monday night, and Small Craft Advisories have been hoisted for the nearshore Charleston county waters and outer Georgia waters.
It is possible that the advisory could be expanded to the remaining marine zones, but at this point conditions appear more marginal. In addition, mariners should be alert for rounds of showers and thunderstorms, which could produce locally strong gusts and/or isolated waterspouts. Marine conditions will improve Tuesday through late week as winds settle back to around 10 knots and seas 2-3 feet.

Rip Currents: Gusty winds, proximity to the full moon, and swell of 2-3 feet every 8 seconds will maintain a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all beaches on Monday. Current calculations indicate a Low risk for Tuesday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.