NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Tonight: A broad upper trough will remain over the eastern U.S., with our area on the southern edge of the trough. A surface ridge is expected to build in from the northwest later tonight,helping to push a weak cold front toward the region.
Beyond this period, this second front will likely stall and blend into the surface front already just south of the region.
An upper level shortwave is shown by models to approach the region late tonight/early Sunday morning from the southwest.
This feature will help to push moisture back northward along our coastal counties. Thus have left the trend of decreasing PoPs for the first 1/2 of the period, then slowly increasing from southeast to northwest after 06-08Z Sunday. Under mostly cloudy skies, low temperatures expected to fall into the mid to upper 60s well inland, and the upper 60s to lower 70s closer to the coast, which is near to slightly below seasonal normals.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
Aloft, a large mid-upper lvl trough will pivot eastward across the Northeast United States with weak h5 shortwave energy rippling across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states early week. At the sfc, a weak front will shift offshore early Sunday, perhaps dissipating while a more well defined front is draped west-east across the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and into the western Atlantic. High pressure is expected to build inland on Sunday behind the weak front, but lingering moisture along with favorable position of a h25 jet should result in few to scattered showers across a bulk of the local area, with even numerous showers along with a few thunderstorms possible, across coastal areas in Southeast Georgia. Very little change in the pattern occurs Monday and Tuesday in regards to h25 jetting aloft, sfc high pressure prevailing inland, and a nearly stationary front south and offshore. Guidance does indicate drier air filtering into inland areas where high pressure holds firm, but higher moisture and weak coastal troughing attempting to develop just south of the region could help produce few to scattered showers along coastal and southern areas heading into the middle of the week. A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out as well, mainly across coastal Georgia.

Temperatures will continue to be unseasonably cool but slightly moderating by mid-week. High temps in the upper 70s on Sunday should warm into the low-mid 80s by Tuesday. Low temps will generally range in the mid-upper 60s away from the coast Monday night, then dip to around 60 well inland to mid-upper 60s closer to the coast Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A ridge of high pressure will continue to extend into the region Wednesday through late week. A coastal trough looks to take shape later in the period, possibly evolving into a weak low. This could result in a wetter weather pattern if this comes to fruition. For now, PoPs remain in the slight chance to chance category through Wednesday, highest closer to the coast, before increasing to chance and likely categories heading through the second half of the week, highest across coastal Georgia. Temperatures remain a few degrees below seasonal norms.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Tonight: Generally expect VFR conditions for all sites through the evening. Later tonight: guidance continues to indicate CIGS lowering back to MVFR to possibly IFR as another upper level disturbance moves from southwest to northeast, and low level northeast winds increase from north to south across the area.
Have introduced a Prob30 for light showers later tonight, possibly as early as 06-08Z Sun for KSAV and then 13-15Z for KCHS and KJZI. Some guidance indicating coverage of light showers could be higher than currently forecasted.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are likely late Sunday into Monday, mainly due to low clouds and/or showers.
TEMPO flight restrictions are possible at the terminals heading into the middle of next week, but become more likely due to showers and thunderstorms starting Thursday next week.

MARINE
Tonight: No highlights are expected through tonight. However, building high pressure from the northwest later tonight is expected to increase northeast winds to 15 to 20 kts over our northern coastal waters along our SC coast. Seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Scattered to numerous showers expected, especially after midnight.

Sunday through Thursday: High pressure will build behind a weak front shifting across the region, setting up a pinched pressure gradient across the region and a persistent northeast to east flow across local waters early into the middle of next week. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for a large portion of local waters Monday and possibly through the middle of the week while the enhanced pressure gradient persists. Northeast/east winds gusting around 25 kt and seas building up to 6-7 ft (largest across offshore Georgia waters) will be common.

Rip Currents: Gusty NE winds along with swell around 7-8 seconds, favors a Moderate Risk for rip currents along all beaches Monday. An elevated risk for rip currents will persist into the middle of next week.



CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.