Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Talahi Island, GA

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Talahi Island, GA

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Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 081731 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 131 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will slowly move south across our area through early Friday, followed by High pressure into Saturday. A front could lift north through our region early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
No major changes with the early afternoon update. Satellite showing various boundaries in and near the area, with the sea breeze still pinned near the coast with a deep offshore flow.
The cold front is approaching I-16 in Georgia, and this will be a focus for convection to develop, as well as the other boundaries now that we're near our convective temps. 0-6 km Bulk Shear is as much as 35-45 kt, and with strong updrafts and steep low level lapse rates, this will result in some organization to storms, resulting in marginally severe hail and strong to damaging winds. Cold pooling will occur late day and this evening, leading to enhanced instability, and helping with the formation and progression of convection. Smoke is still evident on satellite and views outside, but no reductions in surface visibility have been noted. So no mention of smoke/haze in the forecast.

Previous discussion...
Through early this evening: The deep mid level cyclone over New England will remain in place again,. while the large cyclonic flow around it will extend across the local counties. This has pushed a weak back door cold front through the Charleston Quad- County region, and is most noticeable by a wind shift to the north and northeast and slightly lower dew points. The front will stall across the counties between I-16 in Georgia and I-26 in South Carolina this afternoon, and will become the initial focus for convection.

The modified 12Z KCHS sounding isn't quite as impressive as the past two days, but is still certainly sufficient for showers and t-storms, a some of which will become strong or severe. The biggest difference between this afternoon/evening from the past two days would be that there will be more shear, with 0-6 km Bulk Shear and Effective Shear to reach at least 35-45 kt.
Thunderstorms will initiate during the early and mid afternoon when we reach our convective temps. They are expected to first form in an east-west fashion, roughly from Beaufort and southern Charleston County to Jenkins, Screven and Bulloch County. This is near the cold front and also associated with a belt of stronger 700 mb winds. Given the the strength of the shear and with boundary interactions, t-storms will organize into clusters and multicells as we head into the late afternoon and early evening. DCAPE of 800-1200 J/kg and evidence of cold pooling will result in damaging winds as the main hazard. Hail CAPE of 600-800 J/kg plus the shear will equate to hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Special Weather Statements and Severe T-storm Warnings will likely be required, especially between 3 PM and 9 PM. In addition, locally heavy downpours will occur with some potential for training storms. And as always, frequent cloud to ground lightning will also occur.

A large range of temps from one side of the cold front to the other, ranging from lower 80s far north to lower 90s far south.
Most places though will peak at 85-90F degrees.

Satellite images and guidance provided by the HRRR Smoke products indicate that the smoke from wildfires in Canada has reached near the Gulf Coast, and includes much of the local counties. In fact, KCHS has reported tower visibility as low as 2-3SM this morning, an indication of the smoke. We'll see if this continues and consider adding haze or smoke to the grids, but the majority of such conditions should remain aloft. And convection will certainly help in clearing the air, at least temporarily.

Late evening and overnight: Showers and thunderstorms are expected to steadily weaken and push offshore. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low 60s inland to the upper 60s across the GA coast.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Friday: The mid-level pattern finally changes. The unseasonably strong trough over the Northeast U.S. lifts away to the northeast.
This will cause heights to increase over our area, leading to NW flow overhead. At the surface, a cold front is expected to stretch from west to east just south of our area in the morning. It'll quickly move south and away from us during the afternoon. As it does this, High pressure will build in from the northwest, continuing to approach into the overnight. The High will bring drier conditions into our area, with PWATs likely dropping below 1" overnight. But before these lower PWATs arrive, 1.5" PWATs should remain over our extreme southern GA counties. This moisture combined with an afternoon sea breeze could generate some convection. But it should be isolated in coverage and limited to the GA coast and just inland, while our SC counties remain dry. There's not much instability, so it could end up being just showers and no thunderstorms. But if any thunderstorms do develop, they're not expected to be strong. Any convection will dissipate in the evening, with the overnight being dry. High temperatures should be at or maybe a few degrees below normal, generally in the 80s, except cooler at the beaches. Lows will range from the upper 50s far inland to the mid 60s along the immediate coast.

Saturday: Mid-level heights gradually rise over our region with mainly westerly winds. Surface High pressure will move over the Southeast during the day, then offshore in the evening. A warm front will develop to our south, then start to lift north through our area late at night. The High will keep a majority of our area dry during the day with fair weather cumulus. Though, we can't rule out isolated convection for counties bordering the Altamaha River. Highs will be around 90 degrees, except cooler at the beaches due to a sea breeze.
Showers or perhaps thunderstorms could develop late at night. Though the coverage and intensity is questionable. Lows will generally be in the 60s.

Sunday: Mid-level troughing starts to form over the Great Lakes region, which leads to troughing over the Southeast and a ridge just offshore. A surface warm front will lift north during the day. The front will usher more moisture into the region along with increasing instability. Combined with the sea breeze, afternoon convection is expected. Some of it could be strong or or marginally severe. But these details will need to get refined in future forecasts. High temperatures will be near normal.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A mid-level rex block will be over most of the U.S. Sunday night through Tuesday, then it'll transition to one dominant trough over the Eastern U.S. Tuesday night into Wednesday. A surface front will be over or near our area Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect diurnal convection, with higher coverage possible near the front.
Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
08/18Z TAFs: All sites will experience SHRA/TSRA into early tonight, leading to at least periodic flight restrictions.
The best timing for any direct impacts down in the IFR or MVFR categories for both ceilings and visibilities will be between 08/20Z and 09/01Z, although amendments could be required.
Activity will result from a stalled out cold front near KSAV, the sea breeze and various other mesoscale boundaries as seen on satellite. All of the TSRA can also result in gusty winds, which we'll cap at 25 or 30 kt at this time, but conditions do favor even higher gusts should a stronger storm move through.
Lingering convection late evening convection will wane and dissipate overnight, potentially followed by some lower ceilings behind the departing cold front late at night and into Friday morning. We can refine this potential occurrence in later TAF issuances.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR Friday afternoon and Saturday.
Brief flight restriction are expected due to afternoon/evening convection Sunday and Monday.

MARINE
A backdoor cold will stall across the southern South Carolina or far northern Georgia waters this afternoon, then push south tonight, as it gets a boost from convection. Rounds of thunderstorms are expected to push over the nearshore waters late this afternoon and evening, especially over the SC waters.
These storms may result in gusts of 34 kts or greater with cloud-to-water lightning. Special Marine Warnings will likely be required. Outside of convection winds will be S or SW to the south of the front, mainly at or below 15-20 kt, with shifting winds at 10-12 kt or less further north. Sea breeze circulations and convection will also alter convection. Most winds tonight will become E or NE behind the front, mainly at 10-15 kt or less. Seas will be no more than 3 or 4 feet throughout.

Friday: A cold front is expected to stretch from west to east just south of our GA waters in the morning. This front moves south and away from our area through the afternoon and overnight hours, while High pressure builds in from the northwest. This synoptic pattern will cause winds to be light to moderate, highest along the land/sea interface and in the Charleston Harbor during the afternoon due to the formation of a sea breeze. Seas will generally be 2-3 ft.

Weekend: High pressure will move over the Southeast on Saturday, then offshore Saturday night. A front will lift north through our area on Sunday. No Small Craft Advisories are expected with the front. Though, the sea breeze could be a bit stronger both afternoons, leading to gusty winds along the land/sea interface and in the Charleston Harbor. Seas will generally be 2-3 ft.

Monday: Expect mainly southwest winds, backing during the afternoon with the formation of the sea breeze. Seas will be 2-3 ft.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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