Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Talahi Island, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A weak and dry backdoor cold front will push slowly south across the SC Lowcountry this morning, reaching the Savannah River by mid-day.
Otherwise, the forecast area should remain dominated by broad high pressure. Sfc winds are forecast to remain from NNW through today.
Passing mid and high clouds are forecast to develop breaks through the day, sky conditions should remain partly to mostly sunny. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 40s across the CHS Tri-county to the upper 50s across SE GA.

Tonight, near term guidance indicates that a short-wave trough will ripple east of the Southern Appalachians late tonight, reaching the GA/SC coast around 12Z Thursday. NAM12 shows a belt of H5 vorticity advancing across the CWA late tonight. As a result, cloud cover should gradually increase tonight, especially across SE GA. A weak pressure gradient should allow winds to weaken below 5 mph late tonight. Areas under the thick cloud cover should favor lows in the mid to upper 30s, with values around 30 degrees are possible over inland SC.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Thursday and Friday: A dry cold front will push through the region on Thursday as a shortwave trough ripples over the southeastern states aloft. Friday high pressure will build into the region, centered over the southeastern states as zonal flow develops aloft.
Both days will feature rain-free conditions along with plentiful sunshine. High temperatures will return to near normal values, with daytime highs in the upper 50s to around 60 and overnight lows in the 30s inland and around 40 at the coast.

Friday night into Saturday: The quiet weather pattern will begin to change on Friday night as clouds begin to increase ahead of the next approaching cold front. Large scale troughing will develop aloft Friday night and persist into Saturday as the cold front approaches.
Models are in fairly good agreement on a period of showers pushing through the region on Saturday, with the heaviest precipitation in the afternoon hours. Models are depicting PWAT values surging to around 1.4" on Saturday afternoon, which would rival the daily maximum according to SPC climatology. Rainfall totals are generally between 0.75" and 1" through Saturday evening. Temperatures on Saturday are forecast to be in the upper 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The active pattern will continue through the remainder of the weekend as broad troughing persists over the eastern half of the CONUS. Showers will persist through Saturday night and into Sunday afternoon, associated with the aforementioned cold front. High temperatures on Sunday will likely reach into the low 60s before plummeting into the 30s overnight post FROPA.

After Sunday the forecast becomes very uncertain as there are vast run-to-run differences. All guidance does point to an anomalously deep upper level trough over a large portion of the CONUS, along with a very cold arctic airmass at the surface. A low pressure system could develop off the southeastern coast early to mid next week, bringing precipitation to the forecast area. The combination of the arctic airmass and the possible precipitation yields the potential for winter weather. At this juncture, model guidance does suggest a threat of winter weather across the forecast area. However, an above normal amount of uncertainty exists regarding very important forecast details such as possible precipitation types and amounts, timing, and specific impacted areas.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
12Z TAFs: High pressure will remained ridged across the terminals through the TAF period. A dry backdoor cold front is timed to push south across the terminals this morning, resulting in winds to shift from the north. Some degree of mid to high clouds will continue to stream across the terminals through the period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the week. A front is expected to begin impacting the area Saturday, bringing the potential for showers and brief periods of flight restrictions.

MARINE
A weak and dry backdoor cold front will push slow south across the SC Lowcountry this morning, reaching the Savannah River by mid-day.
North-northwest winds should surge across the Charleston County nearshore waters as the front passes. Winds may strengthen to 15- 20kts with gusts 25 kts. These winds will be highlighted with a Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM this morning. Elsewhere, winds should favor speeds between 15 to 20 kts. Seas are forecast to range between 2-4 ft. High pressure is forecast to increase across the marine zones tonight, decreasing the pressure gradient. Winds should settle between 5 to 10 kts with seas between 1 to 2 ft.

Thursday through Monday: A dry cold front will push through the waters on Thursday, with high pressure building in on Friday.
Thursday night could feature a short time period of 25 knot gusts across the Charleston nearshore waters and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters, possibly necessitating a short-lived Small Craft Advisory. NW winds are forecast to wane into Friday with 10 to 15 knots by Friday afternoon. A cold front will push through the region this weekend, however winds are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Seas through Friday are forecast to average 2 to 4 ft, increasing to 3 to 5 over the weekend as the cold front pushes through.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ350.