Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Talahi Island, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Early Morning: Ongoing convection currently upstream across Central Georgia into the South Carolina Midlands will continue to progress eastward at a fairly quick pace given a primarily zonal flow across the Southeast United States. Most guidance indicates the bulk of this activity to erode and/or weaken considerably prior to arriving across western most zones locally given drier air. However, latest radar trends suggest the convection has the potential of reaching areas well inland within an hour or so of daybreak, and should it hold together longer than anticipated, a few thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and perhaps isolated damaging winds.

Today: Aloft, a primarily zonal flow will be in place across the Southeast United States between weak mid-lvl ridging sliding further away from the Southeast Coast and a trough progressing eastward across the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley region towards the Northeast this afternoon. A cold front associated with this trough will be forced east, approaching the region by late morning hours and quickly traversing the local area this afternoon. Latest guidance suggests a fair amount of dry air in place as the front arrives, and with a west-northwest downslope flow also in place, a drier solution than previous models runs have indicated. This would suggest convection that is able to develop ahead/along the front to be limited in coverage while traversing the local area this afternoon, with the bulk of convection pressed more south of I-16 across Southeast Georgia and mostly closer to the Altamaha River.
Although the severe weather risk remains low for the local area today, an axis of SBCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg and 0-6 km Bulk Shear around 25-30 kt will be in place prior to the arriving front. Should convection develop in this environment, unidirectional wind profiles, low-lvl lapse rates around 8.5 C/km and DCAPE around 1000 J/kg depicted on soundings suggest a few strong and/or severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Coastal locations along far southern Southeast South Carolina and mostly coastal areas across Southeast Georgia appear to have the highest potential for a severe thunderstorm mid-late afternoon, until the cold front quickly advances offshore by early evening.

Outside of shower/thunderstorm, ample sfc heating will lead to a well mixed profile, contributing to gusty southwest to west winds upwards to 20-25 mph and warm temps. In general, highs should peak in the low-mid 90s, with peak temps generally along the I-95 corridor ahead of the arriving front.

Tonight: Any showers and/or thunderstorms that are able to develop during the day will quickly shift offshore with a cold front by early evening, putting an end to any strong and/or severe thunderstorm concerns. A substantial amount of dry air depicted on water vapor imagery will arrive post fropa, quickly ending any precip across the local area for the remainder of the night once the front shifts offshore. Lows will be noticeably cooler than the previous night, generally in the low-mid 60s, although upper 60s should remain along the beaches.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Cyclonic flow aloft will remain to the north, with the Southeast U.S. virtually positioned within the base of a stubborn trough. Dry conditions are forecast during the period as a reinforcing cold front is progged to push across the area Thursday into Thursday night. Little moisture present due to the sweeping of Wednesday's cold front will maintain a rain-free FROPA. Other than a few high/cirrus clouds, skies will be mostly clear. High pressure across the Central U.S. will gradually filter into the area Friday, with additional building into Saturday. It should feel pleasantly drier as dew points drop to around 50 degrees or lower, along with nearly full sun both Friday and Saturday.

Thursday will be rather warm with highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s away from the immediate coast. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid 60s most locations and upper 60s along the beaches. Friday and Saturday will be cooler in the wake of the reinforcing cold front with highs only in the low to mid 80s, although some spots across extreme southeast Georgia could peak in the upper 80s. Friday night will be cool with lows in the mid to upper 50s inland and mid 60s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A weak warm front will develop across the southern local CWA Sunday and lift north Sunday night into Monday night ahead of a developing system to the west. Slight rain chances will return as a few showers/tstms could develop near the front. Then an associated cold front is progged to sweep across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing rain chances. Temperatures will return to near or slightly above normal early next week prior to the FROPA.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Thursday. However, a cold front arriving to the area could produce a isolated showers/thunderstorms that impact any terminal, producing brief periods of flight restrictions. At this time, probabilities remain too low to include SHRA/TSRA at the terminals. However, warm conditions will create a well-mixed layer Wednesday, resulting in gusty westerly winds upwards to around 20-25 kt at times prior to and post fropa late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: No concerns through the weekend.

MARINE
Today and Tonight: The pressure gradient will gradually strengthen across local waters today between high pressure shifting further offshore and a cold front arriving to the coast late day/early evening. Southwest winds generally between 15-20 kt will be in place during the day as a result, but even a few gusts to 25 kt are possible off the Charleston County Coast despite warm air advection ahead of the arriving front. Should trends favor a stronger wind scenario, a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed across nearshore waters off the Charleston County Coast and perhaps in the Charleston Harbor mid to late afternoon. Seas will also build today, approaching 2-4 ft, but could reach 5 ft beyond 10 nm off the Charleston County Coast late day. Cold fropa will likely occur by early evening and some guidance suggests the potential for cold air advection to produce a secondary round of gusty winds across local waters during the night. For now, the forecast calls for west/northwest winds generally between 15-20 kt, with wind speeds weakening late night. Seas should gradually subside with the offshore flow in place, generally to 1-3 ft.

Thursday through Monday: Southwesterly winds could become somewhat gusty Thursday evening as a reinforcing cold front pushes offshore, but conditions are currently expected to remain shy of Small Craft Advisory criteria. There are no major concerns through the remainder of the period as high pressure slowly builds over the waters.

CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 21: KCHS: 74/2022 KCXM: 78/1998 KSAV: 74/2017

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.