Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:54AM||Sunset 7:56PM||Thursday April 15, 2021 12:54 AM CDT (05:54 UTC)||Moonrise 8:03AM||Moonset 10:21PM||Illumination 11%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trinidad, TXHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KFWD 150534 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1234 AM CDT Thu Apr 15 2021
. New Short Term, Aviation .
SHORT TERM. /NEW/ /Overnight through Friday/
Another night of scattered showers and thunderstorms is in progress with tonight's activity confined generally to areas north of I-20. Modest 900-700 mb warm advection and weak mid level forcing for ascent are the main drivers of tonight's convection. There is sufficient elevated instability for the strongest storms to produce dime size hail and frequent lightning. The warm advection is forecast to shift eastward over the next few hours with a gradual decrease in activity through early Thursday morning.
We should be in a lull in the precipitation for most of the morning across the region with activity expected to increase later this morning across West Texas. An upstream shortwave trough moving through Utah will induce surface cyclogenesis across southeastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle later today resulting in strengthening southerly flow and warm moist advection. An increase in scattered showers and thunderstorms to our west will eventually spread into our western counties by midday. With the stationary frontal boundary still to our south, this activity should mainly be elevated, but within an area of steepening lapse rates supporting mainly a hail threat. By early afternoon, the stationary front will be lifting northward as a warm front, but indications are now that it will still be south of our area, so the potential for surface based convection is low. If any surface based storms can develop, they would occur primarily across our Central Texas counties anywhere from Goldthwaite down to Hearne.
This initial wave of showers/storms will continue eastward through this evening aided by a weak mid level impulse, but moving away from the stronger low level warm advection. So, we should see a gradual decrease in the coverage of showers/storms through the late evening hours. This lull in coverage should be temporary as the main shortwave ejects into the Central Plains late Thursday night and a surface low deepens across West Texas. As this low spreads eastward into early Friday morning, the warm front across Central Texas will begin to move northward. Strong low level warm advection should lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms north of the warm front, mainly across our northern counties early Friday. This activity will spread eastward through the day Friday ahead of a southward surging cold front. There should be a warm sector somewhere across our area Friday afternoon, most likely across our Central Texas counties where a few strong to severe storms could develop. We'll continue to monitor this potential over the next 24 hours, but the cold front will quickly move through the region by early Friday evening.
LONG TERM. /Issued 325 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021/ /Thursday Evening through the Weekend/
The end of the work week still appears wet with a strong cold front likely to come through late Friday into Saturday. Saturday onward is forecast to be rain/storm-free, with much cooler conditions though there could be some caveats.
The start of the long term forecast period features some uncertainty as the PoP and temperatures will largely hinge on the placement of a surface front. At present time it appears that the front will slowly lift northward toward the U.S. HWY 79/I-14 corridor between 00-06 UTC Friday (Thursday evening). Mid level zonal flow is expected to increase upstream across eastern New Mexico and adjacent parts of the Panhandles. Resultant cyclogenesis should induce a WAA regime more than sufficient for widespread convection. PoPs are broad with 50% rain/storm chances along the Red River. Farther south, confidence is increasing that a cluster of storms will move from the Big Country through East Texas and PoPs have been increased into the 60%-70% range. 3 hour QPF ensemble PMM from the HREF signal a slightly greater coverage of convection across Central Texas and some of the extended runs of higher resolution model guidance offers a similar solution. Moreover, a plume of steeper 700-500mb lapse rates AOA 8 C/km is expected to overspread from the southwest with MUCAPE increasing to near 1500 J/kg by 12 UTC Friday and this may support a loosely organized cluster of storms rooted along the surface warm front across Central Texas. If convection is rooted along the front, its location will ultimately dictate where the greatest corridor of rain amounts and low-end severe potential will reside. The main hazard would be marginally severe hail, though if storms are surface based, there may be a risk for a near-severe caliber wind gust or two.
The warm front will likely make an attempt to surge northward as surface pressure falls continue to the north and northwest of the region. Its northward progress, however, may be hindered if a large mass of precipitation cooled air remains entrenched across North and East Texas. That being said, there's enough of a signal to increase MaxTs across Central Texas by several degrees with a 1-2 degree nudge upward elsewhere from the previous forecast cycle. If convection isn't as widespread, then 75th and 90th NBM MaxT values may be a more appropriate forecast (with widespread upper 70 to mid 80 degree weather). It should be mostly cloudy for most (though the cloud cover forecast has been tricky the past few days) so we'll be relying almost exclusively on WAA. However, if clouds thin, then these greater MaxT's in the higher percentile NBM will likely score better. The greatest rain/storm chances through the day on Friday will shift to the north and east with what should be widespread rain/isolated storm chances. It looks like the greatest instability will remain south of the I-20 corridor, so any severe weather threat (likely low/isolated) should be confined to this region. Again, we'll watch the progression of the warm front.
By Friday evening and into Saturday morning a strong cold front should plow through all of North and Central Texas. Unlike earlier this week, surface pressure rises of 2-2.5 mb/hr coupled with cold air upstream will drive the front south through the western Gulf of Mexico. Sustained winds and wind gusts overnight Friday into early Saturday could necessitate a Wind Advisory for parts of the area. Speeds and gusts will approach 25 MPH and 35 MPH, respectively and add a chill to the air. Saturday will be cool, cloudy, breezy, but dry with daytime highs struggling to get out of the low 60s based on the current forecast. Again, if cloud cover thins, it's conceivable that sunshine erodes the cooler near surface layer and temperatures may approach NBM75/90th percentile with highs in the 60s and 70s.
Chilly conditions will persist late this weekend into early next week with the coolest night appearing to be early Monday morning. High pressure settling in across West Texas should equate to a looser surface pressure gradient. Clear skies and a dry airmass will be ideal for radiational cooling and I've hedged toward the "cooler" end of the guidance envelope with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. Some patchy frost will be possible, especially for some of the rural and sheltered regions---particularly west of I-35 and north of I-20.
The forecast for next week remains dry, but as we transition out of our mid-level Omega pattern into more of a Rex pattern, there will likely be a conveyor of additional upper level troughs from the southwest. The forecast remains dry for now given the high probability that our weekend front will push much of the moisture needed for rain southward. Stay tuned!
AVIATION. /NEW/ /6Z TAFs/
Widespread MVFR cigs with intermittent IFR is expected through the period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are currently ongoing just north of the major airports. This activity will be around for another 1-2 hours before spreading off to the east. Low MVFR cigs will likely prevail in its wake with a lull in precipitation expected until later this afternoon/evening. Scattered showers/storms will increase in coverage to the west and spread eastward this afternoon. This activity should diminish in coverage by evening, but additional showers/storms are expected to develop late Thursday night into Friday. A strong cold front will move through the region during the day Friday. Poor flying conditions will likely persist through Friday evening.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Dallas-Ft. Worth 57 67 57 67 47 / 50 40 80 90 10 Waco 58 69 60 74 49 / 30 60 50 80 10 Paris 53 66 52 58 46 / 70 20 70 100 20 Denton 54 65 53 65 42 / 60 40 80 90 10 McKinney 55 67 55 64 45 / 60 30 80 90 10 Dallas 57 68 58 67 49 / 50 40 80 90 10 Terrell 55 69 55 67 46 / 40 30 70 90 10 Corsicana 57 69 58 70 48 / 40 40 50 90 10 Temple 60 69 60 77 48 / 30 60 50 80 10 Mineral Wells 55 64 55 69 44 / 50 60 70 80 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.
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|Corsicana, Campbell Field-Corsicana Municipal Airport, TX||19 mi||62 min||ENE 7||10.00 mi||Overcast||62°F||58°F||86%||1017 hPa|
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Wind History from CRS (wind in knots)
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