DISCUSSION
Skies are clear across the region with another hot day in store for southeast Arizona. Winds will be breezy out of the southwest this afternoon as a trough moves through to the north. Expect speeds of 12-20 mph and gusts to 35 mph with the strongest winds expected south and west of Tucson. Winds decrease in speed some Friday with the strongest winds still south and west of Tucson.

The area of low pressure off the coast of Mexico has now formed into a tropical depression. The current NHC forecast has it strengthening into a tropical storm by tomorrow and moving northward through Cabo then into the Sea of Cortez on Saturday.
Sunday it weakens significantly as it moves onshore in southern Sonora/northern Sinaloa. This will send moisture southeast Arizona's way starting late Friday into Monday. The best rain chances will be Saturday into Monday, but a couple hi-res models show isolated convection along the international border Friday afternoon and evening.

PWAT values are expected to increase to 1.1"-1.5" across southeast Arizona, which is about 125-150 percent of normal. PoPs begin to increase Saturday mainly for the southern half of the CWA then become widespread Saturday night into Monday. QPF has decreased by 0.2"-0.4" compared to 24 hours ago with current expected QPF for the Saturday to Monday timeframe between 0.2"-0.8". Localized higher amounts will be possible where there is convection. A closed low will begin to move into California Sunday and move through Nevada and northern Arizona on Monday. This could lead to stronger thunderstorms Monday as the upper level flow increases with 0-6 km shear forecasted to be around 30-35 kts. Ample moisture looks to still be in place Monday as well, although it exits the region quickly as the trough moves through. Models also hint at some wind shear Sunday as well, but only around 15-20 kts.
If the trough moves through quicker then this would potentially increase shear Sunday. Flash flooding is not expected to be a large threat, but area washes and drainages will be running, which could affect any roads that dip down into washes. Temperatures drop to around normal Saturday then below normal Sunday and Monday.

After Monday southeast Arizona quickly dries out but the pattern stays progressive with another trough moving through mid to late next week. This will keep temperatures around 4-6 degrees below normal with Tucson possibly seeing its first sub-90 degree high since May.

AVIATION
Valid through 15/00Z.
FEW clouds at 10k-13k ft AGL mainly along the New Mexico border and international border this afternoon and Friday afternoon, then SKC the rest of the period. Isolated -TSRA will be possible Friday afternoon along the international border, although chances that a terminal is impacted is low. Sfc wind will be SWLY at 10-18 kts with gusts to 20-30 kts this afternoon and evening and Friday afternoon. Otherwise winds less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona today with a storm or two possible along the international border Friday. Min RH values today will be 7-15 percent in valley locations and 14-25 percent in the mountains, rising 5-8 percent on Friday. Increasing moisture Saturday through Monday will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with min RH values increasing into the 20-40 percent range in the valleys and even higher in the mountains. 20-foot winds will be south- southwest at 15-20 mph and higher gusts today and Friday. Lighter winds return this weekend, with the exception of gusty and erratic winds in/near thunderstorms. Southwest winds of 15-20 mph and higher gusts will start off the new week, next Monday and Tuesday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.