Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Tucson, AZ

DISCUSSION
Visible and infrared imagery this afternoon showed scattered cumulus field with embedded tower CU from Tucson south associated with an upper low, clearly see on water vapor imagery, between Nogales and Hermosillo. As this upper low continues to move east over the next 6-12 hours, there will isolated mainly virga showers developing across the eastern half of Pima county, and across Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. Main threat from these virga showers will be gusty winds between 30 and 40 mph with HRRR showing 10-30% chance of gusts over 30 kts. Otherwise today has been warmer, around 6-10 degrees, than Wednesday with this warming trend continuing into the weekend as triple-digit highs return to the lower elevations.

Days 4-7 (Monday May 11th to Thursday May 14th)
Hot on the 11th with record highs from Tucson west with isolated areas having HeatRisk in the Major category. Above normal highs continue 12th through 14th even with slight cooling. With the upper high shifting east on the 12th and 13th, mid-level flow turns to the south, which may advect mid-level moisture into the eastern areas. Plenty of uncertainty at how much moisture will be pulled north thus probabilities for measurable rain are on the very low side. Stay tuned.

8-14 day outlooks (May 15th to 21st)
Temperature: Leaning above normal (42%-50%)
Precipitation: Leaning above normal east of Tucson (33%-39%)

AVIATION
Valid through 09/00Z.
SCT to locally BKN 10k-13k ft AGL mainly KTUS south. Slight chance of a shower/virga mainly along the Intl border thru 08/03Z. Outflow gusts near shower/virga up to 35 kts otherwise SFC winds terrain driven and mostly under 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
A warming and drying trend is expected over the next several days. Minimum relative humidities 8 to 14 percent in desert locations today and 15-20 percent in the mountains.
Cloud build-ups likely into this evening across Santa Cruz and mountain areas of Cochise, as well as the Catalina/Rincons and White Mountains. Build-ups from the Catalinas south and east through the International Border carry a threat of gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph this afternoon and early evening. A stray lightning strike can't be ruled out. Otherwise winds are mostly light and under 15 mph. Winds will remain generally light each day with minimum relative humidities falling further into the single digits in the desert elevations and below 15 percent in the mountains by the weekend.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.