Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tucson Estates, AZ

DISCUSSION
Latest IR/WV satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy skies across southeast Arizona as the region is being exposed to considerable cirroform cloudiness coming in over top of the mid/upper level ridge. This ridge of high pressure will continue to result in well above normal temperatures through Monday. However, the high level clouds (extending well upstream into the eastern Pacific) may temper high temperatures a degree or two compared to its potential based on forecast heights/thickness.

Besides the continued hot temperatures Monday, the other weather story for the first part of the week will be increased west to southwest winds. This is attributed to an area of troughiness that will move into the west coast Monday and make its way across the Great Basin and Central Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday. While this will remain a dry system for us as notable moisture remains well to our north, we'll see the increased pressure gradient ramping up the winds. This will be of greatest concern for Fire Weather and Red Flag Warnings have been issued for this Monday and Tuesday. More on that in the Fire Weather discussion below. Tuesday will see the strongest winds area-wide and some locales mainly east of Tucson will be close to wind advisory thresholds. Otherwise, due to the wind, some areas of blowing dust are possible, especially in the typically susceptible areas such as along Interstate 10 between Willcox and the NM state line and in Pinal County. By Wednesday, the strongest winds will start to push east of Tucson towards the NM border as briefly below normal temperatures settle in.

For the end of the work week and into next weekend, dry west to southwest flow aloft will continue. During this period, more typical afternoon breezes and gustiness that we usually see this time of year is expected. Temperatures will warm back up to seasonable levels for the end of the week and next weekend.



AVIATION
Valid through 13/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 15k to 20k ft AGL persisting throughout the remainder of the forecast period. SFC winds mainly SLY/SWLY at 6 to 12 kts thru 12/03Z, them becoming variable at 10 kts or less thru 12/14Z. Thereafter, SFC winds become SLY/SWLY and increase to 14-22 kts by 12/18Z with gusts 30-35 kts through the end of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Above normal temperatures continue this afternoon with lighter winds. A storm system will pass to our north during the early to midweek period with temperatures cooling by midweek. This system will bring strong and gusty west to southwest winds Monday through Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected Monday afternoon east of Tucson, with near critical fire weather conditions elsewhere. The strongest winds will occur Tuesday with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 45 mph area-wide.
As the system pulls away Wednesday, gusty winds will persist near the New Mexico border. Red Flag Warnings are now in effect for the eastern Fire Weather Zones Monday (all of zones 152 and 153 and eastern portions of 151 and 154) and for all of southeast Arizona Tuesday. Trends will be watched over the next day or so for the potential need for fire weather headlines east of Tucson Wednesday.
For the end of the work week, typical afternoon breezes are expected but will remain below critical levels.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Monday for AZZ151>154.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ150>154.