Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tucson Estates, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:20PM Monday December 9, 2019 12:19 PM MST (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 4:37AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tucson Estates, AZ
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location: 32.22, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 091031 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 330 AM MST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. Expect periods of rain, higher elevation snow, and isolated thunderstorms into this afternoon. Precipitation ending east of Tucson this evening, then dry conditions Tuesday into next weekend. Much cooler temperatures today and cold temperatures tonight before a strong warming trend occurs later this week.

DISCUSSION. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms were occurring mainly across eastern Pima County, eastern Santa Cruz County and about the western half of Cochise County at this time. Otherwise, cloudy skies were noted across southeast Arizona early this morning. The precipitation is ahead of a closed upper low centered over southern California. The upper low will move southeastward and be generally centered near the International border and just southwest of Nogales AZ late this afternoon.

Expect periods of rain into this afternoon as the upper low approaches the area. For this forecast issuance, the Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlook was used to delineate where isolated thunderstorms should prevail into this afternoon. The area essentially excludes portions of western Pima County and south central Pinal County from thunderstorm potential. Any thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening should then occur basically east of a Clifton to Sierra Vista line. Otherwise, isolated to scattered showers from Tucson eastward this evening, then any measurable precipitation should be east of this forecast by midnight tonight.

For this forecast issuance, WPC guidance was heavily used for liquid amounts into this evening. Based on these amounts, which match various high resolution models such as the HRRR and the Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and WRF-GFS quite, the heaviest liquid amounts should favor a band from near Kitt Peak northeastward across the Tucson metro area, and further northeast into southern Graham County. As such, the heaviest liquid amounts favor the Catalina/Rincon Mountains near Tucson, and the Pinaleno Mountains including Mount Graham. Based on camera reports and RAWS temperatures, snow levels as of this writing generally range from about 8000-8500 feet. Snow levels will gradually fall during the next several hours, and are forecast to be around 7000-7500 feet this afternoon.

Given this analysis, have opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory until 5 pm MST this afternoon above 7000 feet for the Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains (including Mount Graham), and the Catalina and Rincon Mountains near Tucson. Expect snow accumulations mostly ranging from 6-11 inches, although higher amounts may ultimately occur at the highest peaks.

The mid/upper trough axis is progged by early Tuesday morning to extend from the Texas Panhandle southwestward into central Chihuahua Mexico. With the expectation of only very gradually clearing skies, fog formation should be somewhat limited. Dry conditions will then prevail Tuesday into next weekend as high pressure aloft builds west of the southern California/northern Baja California region. Although the models depict a shortwave trough will move eastward across the Four Corners region Wednesday night, any measurable precip associated with this system will occur well north of this area. The 09/00Z models generally agree that the aforementioned upper high will be shunted southward this weekend as another low amplitude trough moves across the Four Corners region. Any measurable precip with this system will also remain north of this forecast area.

Much cooler temperatures will occur today given the expected clouds and precipitation. A hard freeze should occur tonight in colder eastern and southern valleys. A brief freeze is possible in outlying areas around the Tucson metro area and foothills locations as well. A warming trend will occur Tuesday into Wednesday followed by minor cooling on Thursday. Warmer daytime temperatures will resume Friday into Saturday followed by a few degrees of cooling next Sunday.

AVIATION. Valid through 10/12Z. BKN-OVC clouds 6k-10k ft MSL through this evening then clouds will slowly start to thin out. Expect periods of light to moderate rain into this afternoon before moving east of the area this evening. Some -TSRA will be possible into the afternoon at all terminals. In rain MVFR ceilings and visbys will be likely. Winds will be variable less than 8 kts through the morning becoming southwesterly to northwesterly at 7-12 kts this afternoon and evening. Near showers or thunderstorms winds could gust to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Minimal fire weather concerns. A weather system is expected to impact the area this morning through tonight with a chance of valley rain and mountain snow, with the heaviest amounts across the higher elevations. Dry conditions return Tuesday and continue into the weekend. 20-ft winds will generally remain less than 15 mph through the forecast period.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ511-514 above 7000 feet.



DISCUSSION . Francis AVIATION . Hardin FIRE WEATHER . Hardin

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ6 mi35 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F50°F94%1014.9 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ16 mi27 minNNW 11 G 203.00 miRain Fog/Mist51°F48°F89%1012.3 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi4.4 hrsENE 510.00 miA Few Clouds52°F48°F90%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRYN

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Last 24hr--E6CalmCalmCalmCalmW7NW5------------------SE4SE5E5SE6--NW7N5
1 day agoCalmCalmNW4NW4W3NW5W4NW5------------------S3SE4CalmCalmS4NE3SE5
2 days agoSE3SE4CalmE3NW4NW5W6W5------------------SE5E3E4E6SE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.