Tuesday, February25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tucson Estates, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:19PM Tuesday February 25, 2020 12:21 PM MST (19:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:20AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tucson Estates, AZ
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location: 32.22, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 250945 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 245 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry, breezy and somewhat cool conditions will occur through Wednesday. An upper level ridge late in the week will result in warmer than average temperatures Thursday into the weekend with some high clouds at times. Colder conditions and a threat of precipitation returns late in the weekend into early next week as a storm system is expected to impact the region.

DISCUSSION. Clear skies, occasional breezes and slightly cooler than average afternoon temperatures are in store for the next couple of days. A shortwave dropping SE across the area will induce a decent northerly breeze this afternoon forcing slightly cooler and much drier air across southern Arizona. That said, central sections of the Tucson metro will be sheltered by the Catalina mountains and not feel the full affect of the northerly breeze. That breeze will rotate around to easterly Wednesday with the cool and dry air mass remaining over the area. With the lack of moisture in the atmosphere we should continue to have good star viewing conditions.

Thursday into Friday a shortwave ridge will move over the area allowing temperatures to jump about 10 degrees by Friday, with afternoon highs in the 70-80 degree range Friday and Saturday. Some high level moisture will sneak through the ridge for occasional high clouds.

Then looking at the Sunday into Tuesday timeframe, models continue to advertise a rather cool storm system moving across southern Arizona. Run to run and model to model consistency has been rather high, especially given the lead time so confidence is increasing in the overall outcome although details are subject to change as the timing and trajectory are refined further. This system does not have a lot of moisture to work with, however it is a good deal cooler than the last storm for the potential of a bit of lower elevation snow (near or below 4000 ft). I did tweak pops up a bit, and lowered afternoon temperatures and snow levels some in the Monday into Tuesday timeframe given the latest model trends. Depending on timing, Monday and/or Tuesday may struggle to hit 60 in Tucson.

AVIATION. Valid through 26/12Z. Generally SKC through the period. Sfc winds variable less than 10 kts this morning. Sfc wind this afternoon NLY 12-20 kts with occasional gusts of 25 to 30 kts. Winds then becoming ELY/NELY this evening 8-15 kts with a few gusts to 20 kts into Wednesday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Dry weather through Sunday morning with a slight chance to chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers Sunday afternoon through next Monday. A drier airmass will result in daytime humidity values in the low to mid teens through Saturday. Gusty north winds may result in brief and isolated Red Flag conditions this afternoon, and again on Wednesday as winds become more easterly to southeasterly. Easterly 20-ft winds continue Thursday and Friday but at sub-critical speeds. Gusty southwest winds return to the area next Sunday and Monday in conjunction with the next weather system.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

Public . Cerniglia Aviation . Carpenter Fire Weather . Carpenter

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ6 mi37 minN 10 G 2010.00 miFair63°F21°F20%1023 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ16 mi29 minNNW 17 G 2510.00 miFair63°F14°F15%1020.1 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi84 minN 510.00 miFair57°F42°F59%1020.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRYN

Wind History from RYN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NW13
G16
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NW8NW7NW4NW4------------------E3CalmCalmW5W8N14
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1 day agoNW9NW13W9
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NW12N7N6NW4N4------------------CalmSW3--CalmCalmCalmN5
2 days agoE6S8--SW12
G23
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SW9W5------------------S6CalmCalmCalmSW7S3W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.