Monday, June21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tucson Estates, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 7:35PM Monday June 21, 2021 1:06 AM MST (08:06 UTC) Moonrise 4:26PMMoonset 2:36AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tucson Estates, AZ
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location: 32.22, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 202237 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 337 PM MST Sun Jun 20 2021

SYNOPSIS. Several degrees of relief from the heat this week, but still above late June averages. We have just enough moisture for isolated thunderstorms favoring eastern mountains to start the week. A moisture increase from the south over the next 2 days will bring a little better chance of showers and thunderstorms by late Tuesday or Wednesday. We'll probably lose some of that by next weekend as high pressure rebuilds and temperatures climb again.

DISCUSSION. Weakening high pressure over the desert southwest this afternoon, with the high center loosely consolidated over southern Arizona. We have made considerable progress with the moisture fields across western and northwestern Mexico over the past week with the two tropical systems, and should see our second low level moisture intrusion from the south tonight. Flow from the gulf through Yuma around 3k feet deep with KNYL dewpoint holding on to the upper 50s this afternoon. Almost all of Sonora is now in the 60s, and we should see 55+ spread into our area from the south tonight. Still not very deep, so we should see most of the area mix lower tomorrow afternoon.

A deeper push is working it's way up the Gulf now, with the GEFS ensemble mean bringing 1.8 inch precipitable water values as far north as Hermosillo and central to northern portions of the Gulf Tuesday (The ECMWF ensembles are closer to 1.6 inches). Tuesday night into Wednesday could see 1.5 inches west of our area, and 1.3 to 1.4 inches for eastern Pima and Santa Cruz counties. Drier in eastern areas. A tricky call, but with a southerly flow all the way up to thunderstorm steering levels it should be a favorable regime for showers and/or thunderstorms around Tucson west and southwestward. Unless northern Sonora fires up a little stronger, we will probably be looking at a relatively dry subcloud layer by then, so gusty and dusty outflows the main concern.

Some of that moisture will probably be lost after the Dolores push is over the second half of the week. High pressure building back over the area may bring excessive heat levels back to much of SE AZ next weekend. At the very least we have primed southern to central Sonora for sustained thunderstorm activity. Meanwhile, keep an eye on the easterly flow around the high as it shifts northward again early next week as we have some early hints of energy backing in from the east and another tropical system near the Mexican coast. All in all, it looks like we may be on schedule for a decent Monsoon start between 30 June and 5 July.

AVIATION. Valid through 22/00Z. SKC-SCT clouds generally above 14k ft MSL thru much of the forecast period. ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon/evening in the White Mountains NE of KSAD and E to SE of KDUG. Minor VSBY reduction due to wildfire smoke and haze, particularly E/NE of KTUS. SFC wind WLY/NWLY 12-16 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Slightly stronger speeds at KSAD, generally 20-25 kts and gusts to 35 kts. Otherwise, SFC wind generally less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Gusty west to northwest winds today into Monday, with isolated critical fire weather conditions in the upper Gila River Valley near and northwest of Safford. Temperatures will not be quite as hot most of the coming week, but still generally above late June averages. We'll keep just enough moisture for a chance of afternoon thunderstorms in the eastern mountains to start the week, but they will remain moisture starved with limited wetting rain chances. A moisture increase should bring a better chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday, however they are still expected to be moisture starved in eastern mountain areas, with strong erratic outflows and dry lightning a concern. We will lose some of the moisture again late in the week, with temperatures climbing as high pressure rebuilds over the area by next weekend.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>506-509.



Meyer

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ16 mi74 minESE 410.00 miFair91°F52°F26%1007.2 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi69 minSSE 410.00 miFair89°F52°F28%1007.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRYN

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1 day ago------------------CalmE3E3E9E6E8SE7S6S6W3E212
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