Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Byram, MS

FXUS64 KJAN 221215 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 715 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Through mid next week...

The remainder of the week continues to be quite pleasant with drier conditions. It will not last however with a return to a hot and humid airmass as a warm front lifts north. As a result, rain and storm chances will be on the increase this weekend into next week.
With no meaningful airmass change through the next week or so, storms, especially in the afternoon, will be possible daily.

There are increasing probabilities for some severe storms Sunday/Monday and even into Tuesday as a series of shortwaves embedded within westerly flow push across the region. The pre- existing unstable airmass along with some flow could support storm organization with a predominantly hail and wind threat. That said, there is some uncertainty. The better thermo profiles look to be Sunday, but the better shear and forcing looks to be Monday into Tuesday. Overall, several days look to hold potential, especially due to lack of airmass change, but Monday seems most confident with the best forcing. The frontal boundary and possibly a remnant outflow boundary, could serve as a focus for systems/MCS that get going near the ArkLaTex region. The boundary then looks to get pushed south and stalls around the Pine Belt Tuesday. Storms then reignite along this boundary Tuesday afternoon. Given low confidence, will hold off on severe graphics at this time. We will continue to provide updates as needed.

The unsettled weather persists into next week with daily rain and storm chances. The boundary will likely meander across the area and thus confidence in a meaningful airmass change and/or cooler temperatures has slightly decreased. Should this trend continue, we may have to be patient to see a return of pleasant weather, so enjoy the rest of this week!/SAS/
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