Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bluffton, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Quiet, albeit frigid, conditions will prevail through the overnight period across the forecast area. A broad upper level trough will slowly shift off the east coast through the overnight as high pressure builds in at the surface. An Arctic airmass will continue it's hold over the region as the high pressure builds in. Temperatures this afternoon have struggled to reach more than a few degrees above freezing. Tonight skies are forecast to remain clear through the first portion of the overnight period, and in conjunction with light to calm winds and the current snowpack near record breaking temperatures are forecast (see Climate section for more details). After midnight some cloud cover will move into the region associated with a low pressure system passing well to the south. Temperatures will likely remain steady heading into daybreak. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area for apparent temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees. There are a few locations that could reach apparent temperatures just below 10 degrees, however as of this juncture the coverage was not enough to warrant an Excessive Cold Warning. Any precipitation associated with the low pressure system to the south is forecast to remain well offshore, with rain-free conditions expected through the period.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Thursday through Saturday: Aloft, a positively tilted longwave trough will gradually work eastward Thursday and Friday with zonal flow settling in for Saturday. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front will pass through and expansive high pressure will spread across the region through Saturday. The only real thing of note during this period is the area of showers we have been monitoring over the last few days that model consensus continues to keep offshore on Thursday. Fortunately, the dry forecast precludes any small chance of precipitation problems Thursday morning as we get off to a very cold start with temperature slowly climbing out of the low to mid teens in most areas. Thursday will be yet another very chilly day with highs likely topping out in the lower end of the upper 30s. Thursday night will be cold, but not as cold, with lows dipping into the low 20s. Friday highs will finally climb above 40, but only into the low 40s with overnight lows dipping back into the upper teens. Saturday will continue the run of well below normal temperatures, as highs try to rise into the upper 40s. Overall, these temperatures will prevent rapid improvement of road conditions, especially for secondary roads. Also, additional Cold Weather Advisories could be needed for late Thursday night and Friday morning, as well as late Friday night and Saturday morning.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will persist across the area Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a weak system that will move into the area Monday. This system could bring isolated to scattered showers to the area, but overall does not appear to be a threat for widespread significant rainfall. Dry weather should then prevail into the middle of next week. Temperatures will continue to be below normal, perhaps rising to near normal values by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
All terminals will initialize VFR to start the 18Z TAF period under mostly sunny skies. Northerly winds may gust to around 18 knots at times this afternoon at all terminals. Clouds will begin to increase in coverage in the latter half of the night, remaining VFR. Some guidance indicates that some brief MVFR cigs are possible around daybreak Thursday, however confidence is not high enough to include mention of any restrictions in the 18Z TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE
Tonight: Conditions across the marine zones will continue to improve through the overnight period as high pressure builds into the region from the west. Winds will decrease to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Wave heights across the nearshore waters will generally be 3 to 4 ft with 5 to 6 ft across the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters. All nearshore Small Craft Advisories will likely come down at various times this evening and into the overnight, with the offshore GA waters holding on a little longer due to 6 ft seas.

Thursday through Monday: Elevated winds will prevail Thursday into Friday, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 15-20 knot range.
Seas up to 6 ft will linger across the outer GA waters at least into the afternoon, and the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect there.
Otherwise, winds and seas will then diminish significantly this weekend and into early next week.

CLIMATE
Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

Wednesday, January 22: KCHS: 31/1970 KCXM: 31/1970 KSAV: 34/1970

Thursday, January 23: KCHS: 34/1970 KCXM: 38/2016 KSAV: 40/2016

Record Low Temperatures:

Thursday, January 23: KCHS: 19/1985 KCXM: 24/2003 KSAV: 19/1960

Record Snowfall:

Tuesday, January 21: KCHS: T/1984* KSAV: 0.2/1910

Wednesday, January 22: KCHS: T/2022* KSAV: T/2011*

Greatest One Day Snowfall: KCHS: 6.0 inches/Dec 23, 1989 KSAV: 3.6 inches/Feb 8, 1968 (Snowfall observations ended in downtown Charleston in 1980)

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for SCZ040- 042>045-047>052.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ350- 352.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ354.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ374.