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FXUS65 KTWC 042136 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 236 PM MST Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A gradual warming trend is expected over the next several days, with above normal temperatures returning on Thursday. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday through Sunday, primarily in eastern and southern counties.

DISCUSSION
Skies are clear across the region with temperatures running 2-3 degrees above this time yesterday. A weak shortwave trough is moving through the Four Corners region into New Mexico.
In its wake weak ridging will be in place which will lead to a continued warmup. Temperatures will be above normal into next week with Friday likely being the hottest day. The 04/13Z NBM gives the Tucson International Airport a 12 percent chance to hit 100 degrees Friday. Saturday into early next week temperatures will range 4-6 degrees above normal.

Winds will also be breezy out of the east to southeast starting Thursday into Saturday. The surface pressure gradient tightens during this time period as surface high pressure builds over the Great Plains with a weak surface low over southwest Arizona and southeast California. The gradient will be strongest Friday and Saturday with speeds 15-25 mph and gusts 30 to 40 mph. The Gila River Valley in Graham County will see winds on the higher end of those ranges. Low temperatures will also be warmer than normal Friday night into Saturday morning thanks to the easterly downslope winds.

The low level easterly/southeasterly flow will also advect in a little moisture along the international border starting Friday.
Ensembles show PWAT values 20 to 50 percent above normal with the ECMWF ensemble on the lower end of that range and the GEFS on the higher end. However with weak riding overhead and the shallowness of moisture PoPs are only 10 to 20 percent and mainly south and east of Tucson. Saturday looks to have the best chance for precip, but again the highest PoPs are only around 20 percent. CAPE values will be around 200 J/kg so can't rule out a lightning strike or two as well.

AVIATION
Valid through 06/00Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions across southeast Arizona through the forecast period. This afternoon, SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 12 knots or less through 05/03Z, and then becoming light and variable in directions in the overnight period. After 05/18Z, SFC winds will favor SELY/ELY winds with speeds of 10 to 12 knots for KTUS east while KTUS west will favor WLY/NWLY flow of 12 knots or less. Occasional gusts to around 20 knots during the afternoon hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will warm to 6-9 degrees above normal by Friday, with readings lowering back to within 4-6 degrees of normal Saturday into the middle of next week. Min RH values will fall into the 8-15 percent range in the valleys and between 15-25 percent across the higher terrain through Thursday.
Breezy east/southeast winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph will occur across southeast Arizona Friday and Saturday. These easterly winds will result in increasing moisture and higher humidity values, along with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday from Tucson south and eastward.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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Tucson, AZ,