Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Willcox, AZ

DISCUSSION

The upper level pattern features a longwave trough from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Plains extending south through the Four Corners region, with a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and Texas. A weak cutoff low sits off the western Baja coast which is combining with the nearby ridge to draw moisture north through Mexico towards the International Border. Ahead of this moisture surge, the subsequent height rises with the building ridge will bring high temperatures today 3 to 5 degrees above normal across southeastern Arizona with the potential for Tucson to hit 105 for the first time this year (55 percent chance from the NBM). Troughing to the north will keep winds breezy and out of the west/northwest today, especially through the Graham county Gila and Aravaipa valleys where winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph are forecast.

The subtropical ridge will shift west over the next several days with mid-level flow turning southerly over southeastern Arizona. Ensemble guidance favors precipitable water values to rise to over an inch through Friday, further increasing into the weekend. This moisture push will start to bring in some slight (under 20 percent) shower/thunderstorm chances Friday, with a non-zero but even lower potential Thursday. A stronger instability signal arrives this weekend which lines up with the modestly higher NBM precipitation probabilities, though there will still be some details to work out depending on day to day activity. Flow aloft will become a bit stronger and more active this weekend as well, which should allow for greater chances of thunderstorms with potentially hazardous impacts.

The outlook next week is less clear as more significant model differences exist in how they handle the moisture. 00Z ECMWF members have a stronger signal for moisture remaining in place on Monday while GFS members try to scour this moisture out quicker. Additionally if Saturday/Sunday are more active days, this may also negatively impact Monday's precipitation chances.
For now 10-30 percent chances remain on Monday however this is subject to change.

AVIATION
Valid through 11/12Z.

SKC through 10/18Z then FEW clouds at 10k feet. Surface winds increase and become west/northwest 8-14 kts after 10/18Z with gusts to 20 kts. Stronger 15-20 kt northwest winds expected through KSAD with gust up to 28 kts. Winds then diminish this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

West/northwest winds today and Thursday from the late morning through the evening. Wind speeds of 12-18 mph and gusts of 25 mph through most of southeastern Arizona, with winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30 mph through the Graham county Gila and Aravaipa valleys. Minimum relative humidities 8-14 percent today and 14-19 percent in the mountains. Moisture begins to progressively move into the region Thursday through the weekend. This moisture will begin to introduce chances for showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and lightning as early as Thursday, though with better chances (generally 15-35 percent)
Friday into early next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.