Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shell Point, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Deep moisture remains across our area as a warm front slowly lifts north. The radar is very active with showers and thunderstorms occurring across a large portion of our area.
Heavy rainfall will cause flooding concerns to persist, especially in areas of training. SPC Mesoscale Analysis points to MLCAPEs of 500-1,000 J/kg and SRH around 100 m2/s2 around the front. This is where the strong to severe thunderstorms are most likely, along with the risk for a brief tornado. Otherwise, categorical POPs will persist tonight, with up to remain through the night as the sfc low over the Deep South begins to track east. Some areas may receive an additional 1-2" with locally higher amounts. Low temperatures are forecasted to range in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Active, wet weather will continue early this week. A closed mid level low will remain over the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Monday, making some slow northeast progress Monday night.
Shortwave energy will pass over the region ahead of this feature, coincident with unseasonably high PWats, near or possibly in excess of 1.8 inches (which is around climatological maximums). At the surface, a stalled front will linger in the vicinity before finally shifting northward as a broad low moves into the region overnight. Ample large scale forcing and deep moisture will bring another day of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Additional rainfall amounts on average of 1-2 inches are forecast Monday through Monday night, with potential for locally higher amounts as hinted by HRRR probs of 10% for greater than 3 inches over southeast Georgia. Given a few days of soggy conditions, some flooding could be possible especially in urban and poor-drainage areas and in areas where a large amount of rain falls in a short period of time. In addition, radar will bear watching for a couple strong to possibly severe thunderstorms given some modest instability and shear present.
Locally strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado would be the primary threats. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures cooler than normal.

The mid level low will continue to slowly lift north-northeast towards the Atlantic coast Tuesday into Wednesday, eventually opening up into a trough. Less convective coverage is expected overall than previous days, but there will still be at least scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each day. Higher activity/PoPs should become more focused over South Carolina on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
There will finally be a return to drier weather for late week as high pressure returns both at the surface and aloft. Models indicate a shortwave could pass near or over the Carolinas on Saturday and bring the potential for showers/thunderstorms, but otherwise the forecast is largely dry during this period.
Perhaps more notably will be the warming temperatures. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 90s Friday and Saturday, with even higher heat indices possibly in the 100-105F range in spots.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
18Z TAFs: Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely through the rest of the TAF time period, resulting in reductions in ceilings and visibilities. Winds will increase towards the end of the TAF time period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: MVFR or lower cigs and/or vsbys possible through Tuesday as a front remains stalled nearby and several rounds of showers/tstms move through.

MARINE
Tonight: A stationary front will meander across our area, yielding SE winds between 10 to 15 kts. Though, there could be a few gusts to 25 kt across our SC waters this evening. Seas will average 3-5 ft. Additionally, periods of thunderstorms will persist, with locally strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated waterspout.

Monday through Friday: A stalled front will linger over the region early this week. Winds/seas will be highest Monday into Monday night, and Small Craft Advisories have been hoisted for the nearshore Charleston county waters and outer Georgia waters.
It is possible that the advisory could be expanded to the remaining marine zones, but at this point conditions appear more marginal. In addition, mariners should be alert for rounds of showers and thunderstorms, which could produce locally strong gusts and/or isolated waterspouts. Marine conditions will improve Tuesday through late week as winds settle back to around 10 knots and seas 2-3 feet.

Rip Currents: Gusty winds, proximity to the full moon, and swell of 2-3 feet every 8 seconds will maintain a Moderate Risk of rip currents at all beaches on Monday. Current calculations indicate a Low risk for Tuesday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374.