Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shell Point, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
The center of a 593 DM ridge will remain off the GA coast through this afternoon. At the sfc, the forecast area will remain between a high centered over the western Atlantic and a developing lee trough.
This pattern will support southwest flow today, shifting from south with a sea breeze late this afternoon. Given strong insolation, late sea breeze, and very mild llvl thicknesses, high temperatures are forecast to range in the low to mid 90s. Heat index values may peak between 100-105 degrees for most areas this afternoon, especially across the coastal counties. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms may provide some relief from the heat this afternoon.
High resolution guidance indicates that the greatest coverage is expected across SE GA along the sea breeze.

Tonight, any convection that develops this afternoon should dissipate by mid-evening. The rest of the night is forecast to remain dry and mild. Low temperatures should range from near 80 along the coast to the mid 70s inland.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Upper level ridging with a surface high pressure over the Atlantic continues through Wednesday. As low-mid level moisture continues to flow up along the coast from the southwest, 1-2 kJ/kg of CAPE if the weak cap can be broken will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. High resolution models would suggest coverage to be far and few between, so have kept pops limited to 20 percent, with best chances during the afternoon hours as a sea- breeze is expected to push ashore. Throughout the day on Thursday, a mid-level shortwave begins to flatten the ridge allowing for additional moisture to be advected in from the west, which looks to allow for increased coverage in showers and thunderstorms with pops in the 30-40 percent range. While 1-2 kJ/kg of CAPE remains possible, the lack of mid-level flow and thus low shear values leads to low chances for severe weather. Overnight and continuing into Friday, the weak trough axis moves across the area with ridging building in from the west. A cold front is expected to move down out ahead of a building surface high pressure, though most guidance continues to show the front stalls off to our northwest. The front will act to focus additional chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, with pops currently in the 30-50% range. High temperatures look to remain fairly consistent in the lower to mid 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s to lower/mid 100s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The aforementioned front washes out throughout the weekend, with upper level ridging building in from the west and a surface high pressure remaining over the Atlantic. Temperatures remain largely in the lower to mid 90s with heat indices topping out 100-105F. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms continue throughout the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
6Z TAFs: VFR conditions with southwest winds through the TAF period. Winds could become gusty during the afternoon hours, especially at KJZI. It is possible that isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop along the sea breeze near KSAV late this afternoon, coverage too limited to highlight in the TAF at this time.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon.

MARINE
Today and tonight, the forecast area will remain between a high centered over the western Atlantic and a developing lee trough. This pattern should support SSW winds between 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts through the near term period. Seas are forecast to range from 3 to 4 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: A broad, south-southwesterly wind regime can be expected with winds generally averaging 15 kt or less, except a bit higher along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor each afternoon with the sea breeze which could exceed 20 knots through Thursday. Seas will remain 4 ft or less through the period.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.