Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Payne Springs, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Tonight and Sunday/

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms continue in 3 separate sections of North Central Texas early this evening. These systems are progressive, and most of the activity should exit the forecast area by 9 pm. A third small cluster of storms near Lampasas and Mills County will likely persist into the late evening hours before dissipating.

Clearing skies this evening will linger past midnight, before strong southerly low level flow advects more stratus into the area early Sunday morning. Mostly cloudy skies will dominate most of the region from daybreak through mid to late morning, before mixing out to partly sunny conditions Sunday afternoon. Continued weak synoptic scale forcing for ascent, owing to a large scale trough remaining to our west, coupled with substantial mixed layer instabilty and large mid level lapse rates, should promote another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms over North Texas Sunday afternoon. The dryline will remain fixed near the western periphery of the forecast area Sunday, and per the latest runs of the HRRR, this may serve as a focusing mechanism for renewed convection west of US 281 late in the afternoon.

Additional scattered activity may occur elsewhere across North Texas Sunday afternoon, but the absence of any other appreciable boundaries will preclude much in the way of organized activity through sunset. Nevertheless, with large CAPES remaining in place areawide, any cells that do form may have the potential to produce large hail, or perhaps strong wind gusts.

Bradshaw

LONG TERM
/Issued 252 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ /Monday through next Saturday/

Following a final day of muggy conditions and active convection, the weather over North Central Texas will quickly transition to a dry and more seasonable temperature regime through the remainder of the workweek.

The longwave upper trough which will have resided over the Western United States for the past few days will finally exit the Rockies on Monday and enter the Plains States. A warm, humid and very unstable airmass will persist over the region on Monday. Appreciable synoptic scale forcing for ascent will exist in advance of the mean upper trough, facilitating widespread shower and thunderstorm activity over our area through the afternoon hours.
The bulk of this activity should shift into the eastern North Texas counties by evening, with all precipitation ending from west to east later Monday night. The storms Monday will once again benefit from substantial CAPE and deep layer shear. As such, a severe weather risk will continue to exist over most of our forecast area, highlighted by a large hail and wind risk. The combination of shear and instability will promote at least a low end tornado threat closer to the Red River as well.

A noticeable (and welcome) cold front will sweep through North Texas early Tuesday, delivering northwest winds and drier air to the region. A dry northwesterly upper level flow regime will evolve over the Southern Plains through mid to late week, promoting sunny and seasonably warm days, mostly clear nights, and overnight lows settling comfortably into the 50s and lower 60s.
Indeed, next week may feature our final mornings with lows this comfortable until next fall - so be sure to enjoy them! A return to southerly to southwesterly deep level flow will resume by week's end, hastening a return to temperatures more typical of late May or even early June.

Bradshaw

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites this evening through approximately 09z, in the wake of the active convection that impacted the airports early this evening. Strong low level southerly winds will transport another expansive area of stratus into North Texas after 08z, resulting in a return to MVFR ceilings through approximately 14-16z. Decent low level mixing should yield scattered to broken VFR cloud conditions from 16z onward. Another round of scattered convection should break out across much of North Texas around or after 20z, and have elected to include VCTS conditions at all TAF sites to indicate this. Coverage and confidence in occurrence is not great enough to warrant TEMPO wording at this time.

A moderatel tight low level gradient will persist across the Southern Plains Sunday, due to lee troughing over eastern New Mexico. These conditions will yield southerly winds sustained at 12-15 knots from the pre dawn hours Sunday through the afternoon hours. Some gusts in excess of 20 knots are possible from 15z onward.

Bradshaw

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation may be requested across North and Central Texas this afternoon and evening. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 88 72 86 69 / 40 40 30 70 30 Waco 72 90 73 89 70 / 40 20 10 40 30 Paris 67 84 69 83 69 / 50 30 30 70 50 Denton 68 87 70 85 64 / 20 40 30 70 30 McKinney 69 87 71 82 69 / 30 40 30 70 40 Dallas 72 89 71 85 69 / 40 30 30 70 30 Terrell 70 88 72 86 70 / 50 30 20 60 30 Corsicana 73 90 75 88 72 / 40 20 10 50 30 Temple 72 92 74 91 70 / 40 10 10 40 20 Mineral Wells 69 89 70 89 61 / 10 30 30 50 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>146-156-157-159.