Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flowing Wells, AZ

DISCUSSION
A shortwave is currently moving across the area initiating cloud development mainly Tucson eastward. This shortwave will move out of the area early this morning, with a second shortwave moving through the area this afternoon. This shortwave will increase the afternoon winds for areas east of Tucson, bringing near critical fire weather conditions for this area this afternoon.

A dry system passing to the north of the area Sunday and Monday will bring an increase in winds, bringing critical fire weather conditions both days for areas east of Tucson, more in the fire weather section. High temperatures with this system will be 3 to 6 degrees cooler on Sunday and Monday.

Once this system passes, high pressure begins to build bringing warmer temperatures. The NBM currently has chance a 50%, 90%, 80%, and 50% chance for Tucson Int'l Airport reaching 100 degrees Wednesday through Saturday. During these warmer temperatures, much of the valleys are in the moderate HeatRisk category and means the heat can affect those sensitive to heat and/or lack adequate cooling and/or hydration.

AVIATION
Valid through 18/12Z.
FEW to BKN clouds AOA 20-25k ft AGL from KSAD to KOLS line thru 17/16Z. After 17/18Z, FEW-SCT AOA 20k ft AGL moving from west to east across the area through the end of the forecast period.
SFC winds incr to SWLY 17/16Z from thru 18/03Z with speeds of 15-21 kts and a few gusts up to 30 kts. Strongest winds expected near KALK. Otherwise, SFC winds remain terrain driven and under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be near normal today with typical breezes for much of southeast Arizona, with breezy conditions persisting across Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties where 20-foot wind speeds will be around 15 mph and gusts up to 25-30 mph during the mid/late afternoon hours, bringing near critical fire weather conditions.

Sunday winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected, with a Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM on Sunday. Monday is now looking to be the windiest of the period across the Gila Valley of Graham, Greenlee, and far eastern Pinal counties with winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts around 40 mph. An increase in relative humidity is expected, but still remain close to critical fire weather condiitons so a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 10 AM to 8 PM Monday.

Temperatures will be 2 to 4 degrees below normal Sunday, lowering to 9 to 12 degrees below normal next Monday, warming to well above normal levels by the middle of next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ151>154.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for AZZ151>154.