Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Picture Rocks, AZ

DISCUSSION

The upper level pattern over the coming several days will feature a transition from northwesterly to zonal flow today, to ridging with modest height rises through Thursday. While this ridge amplitude will be on the tame side, it will be enough to usher in 95-100 degree highs in desert locations Wednesday through Friday.
A byproduct of this pattern switch will be a relaxation of the pressure gradient, with lighter winds today and Wednesday than seen in recent days.

This weekend will see the ridge axis shift eastward into the central CONUS, bringing temperatures down a few degrees (though still near or above normal). This shift will allow stronger west to southwest flow to return over southeastern Arizona, bringing breezy conditions Thursday through Saturday. The probabilities of winds strong enough for critical fire weather concerns is low, but non-zero with GEFS members showing modestly higher probabilities in eastern locations on Friday.

By early next week ensemble models are in good agreement of a ridge rebuilding over the western CONUS. This doesn't do much to change the temperature outlook from the weekend (NAEFS guidance keeps temperatures within the ridge aloft below the 90th percentile in its climatology), but it does potentially open up a window for moist southeasterly flow into Arizona. Ensemble probabilities for adequate moisture for convection remain low at this moment, however with a week of lead time and associated uncertainty, the potential for convection with the threat of dry lightning will need to be watched for.

AVIATION
Valid through 21/12Z.

SKC with winds light and terrain driven through the forecast period.
Winds generally remain under 12 kts, though brief late afternoon gustiness possible. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

Less wind and a warming trend over the coming days as a ridge builds over the region. Highs by Thursday and Friday will be in the lower 100s from Tucson westward (and upper Gila River Valley) and in the 90s in the eastern valleys. Elevated 20-foot winds Thursday afternoon through Saturday, with the strongest winds on Friday. At this time, wind speeds stay below critical fire weather thresholds.
Single digit RH values at all elevations the next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.