Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Picture Rocks, AZ

DISCUSSION
Tropical Storm Rachel has now transitioned to a Post Tropical Cyclone. Rachel will move rapidly NE into the Desert Southwest well W/NW of our CWA this morning, but will still bring us strong gusty winds and a continued threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms the rest of the night. SFC winds are also increasing as the remnant wind field pushes into our CWA
Strongest winds are across the higher elevations and from central Pima County west into western Pima County. Highest gusts have been in the 35-45 mph range. These gusts may top out close to 55 mph in the Wind Adv area and could approach 60 mph in convection. No changes were made to the ADV tonight.

Continued rain chances are expected today with the possibility of isolated thunderstorms. However, no severe weather is expected as the atmosphere becomes more stable through the day.

Southerly flow ahead of the longwave trough will linger keeping chances for rain and thunderstorms 20-50% for Monday and Tuesday. Drier air returns by Wednesday, clearing out shower activity across the area. Expect an extended period of below- normal temperatures starting Sunday and persisting through mid- week.

We are still watching for a late week Easterly Wind Event, which could bring widespread Wind Adv criteria to much of the CWA, especially easterly wind prone areas.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH 08Z MONDAY/
FEW/SCT clouds around 4k ft AGL for KOLS/KDUG with SCT-BKN clouds 9-12k ft AGL elsewhere. SFC winds increase this morning and persist through the day. Wind gusts of 25-35 kts with a low probability of 45 kts for KTUS/KOLS. Additional isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA rest of the night becoming more isolated later Sunday morning and afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
The combination of a low pressure system and the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachel will bring breezy to windy southwest winds Sunday and Monday with wind gusts of 35 to 45+ mph on Sunday for much of southeast Arizona. Highest wind potential will be from central Pima County west. Breezy winds continue on Monday as well with winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 35 mph. This weather system will bring a 30-70 percent chance for rain Saturday and Sunday, lowering to 20 to 50 percent Monday and Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity values will remain 15-30 percent in lower elevations and above 40 percent in high elevation terrain through Saturday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ501-502-505.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ503-504-506-514-515.