Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hardeeville, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
Late this evening: Overall, a very quiet and early summer-like overnight period is expected. Coming off an afternoon with highs in the low 90s and with persistent southwest flow driven by a nearby inland trough, it will be a very mild night. Lows are forecast to only dip into the upper 60s for inland areas while the coastal corridor lingers in the low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Friday: The hottest day of the year so far seems likely across the region as strong upper ridging holds across the Southeast States. H8 temperatures are forecast to rise to 17-19C with low- level thicknesses peaking 1420-1425 m during peak heating. This coupled with little in the way of significant cloud cover and a downslope flow aloft should allow highs to reach into the lower-mid 90s just above everywhere except along the immediate coast where a late afternoon resultant sea breeze will take shape. Record highs at both the Charleston and Savannah Intl Airports could be challenged. The record in Downtown Charleston/Waterfront Park looks safe for now given where the resultant sea breeze is expected to set up, but even a slight delay in its development will have implications for Downtown Charleston. Modified forecast soundings show the atmosphere remaining strongly capped through the day with no forcing aloft noted given the orientation of the upper ridge. A rain-free forecast was maintained. Dewpoints are now forecast to mix out a bit more than previously expected with value dropping into the upper 60s/lower 70s. The resulting heat indices peak in the 98-101 range and well below the 108 Heat Advisory criteria.
While this is a tad lower than previous forecasts, the baseline key message remains that extra precautions should be taken given its the first significant heat episode of the year. Note, the experimental Heat Risk level is solidly in the orange/risk level 2 category all but the beaches. It will be a warm overnight with lows dropping into the upper 60s/lower 70s, except mid 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

Saturday: The upper ridge aloft will steadily weaken with the flow aloft becoming more zonal with time. A cold front will meander into South Carolina and Georgia during the day, but there is much uncertainty how far south the front will drift as it becomes increasingly parallel to the flow aloft. Some degree of convection will accompany the front as it moves into northern Georgia, the Upstate into western North Carolina Saturday morning, but guidance remains mixed on how much activity will take it this far south into southern South Carolina into Southeast Georgia during the late afternoon into the evening hours given the mean westerly flow ahead of the front. A number of the GEFS members are showing measurable rainfall over the area as the front settles south, but the 15/12z operational GFS still looks to have some convective feedback issues. For now, the 15/13z NBM is favored, but with slightly wetter guidance blended in to trend. This still yields gridded pops just below 20%, but these are certainly higher than the previous forecast cycle. Mentionable pops may eventually be needed if models trend wetter overall. It will remain hot and somewhat humid with highs warming into the lower-mid 90s away from the immediate coast. Lows will drop into the upper 60s/lower 70s with mid 70s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

Sunday: The frontal remnants will linger nearby through the day as a sea breeze moves inland. There may be enough instability and convergence ahead of the sea breeze to generate a few showers/tstms, mainly inland from the coastal corridor. Slight chance pops were maintained. Highs will warm into the upper 80s/lower 90s away from the beaches.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Upper ridging will mostly dominate aloft through Tuesday before the a large upper trough will impact the eastern CONUS by the middle part of next week, helping to push a stronger cold front across the Southeast States. The front will bring the next meaningful chance for showers and tstms. Temperatures will remain above average through Tuesday, then return closer to climatology Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Today/ Friday: VFR/ no precipitation forecast. Light southwest winds through the early morning hours then slowly veering from the west after daybreak. By the afternoon, a sea breeze will begin to form along the SC/ GA coast and start to move inland.
Winds at KJZI will back from the south/ southwest first followed by KCHS and KSAV.

Tonight: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: The risk for showers/tstms will increase by the middle of next week.

MARINE
Tonight: Sea breeze surges in the Charleston Harbor should end shortly after sunset. Otherwise, southwest winds 10-15 kt will prevail overnight for all waters with seas 2-4 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: Southerly wind regime will prevail for much of the period. Another sea breeze surge looks like Friday along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor. Winds increase a bit more all areas for Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds may reach as high as 15-20 kt during this time. Otherwise, speeds will remain less than 15 kt, except higher near the sea breeze. Seas will generally remain 4 ft or less through the period.

CLIMATE
Record High Temperatures:

May 16: KCHS: 94/1941 KSAV: 95/1915

May 19: KSAV: 97/1996

May 20: KSAV: 96/2006

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 16: KCHS: 71/2018 KSAV: 74/1915

May 17: KCHS: 74/1995 KCXM: 75/1998 KSAV: 74/1995

May 18: KCHS: 75/1995 KCXM: 77/1991 KSAV: 74/1899

May 19: KSAV: 74/1930

May 20: KCHS: 72/2022 KCXM: 76/2022 KSAV: 73/1896

May 21: KCHS: 74/2022 KSAV: 74/2017

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.