Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Royal, SC

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Royal, SC

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Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 050356 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1156 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build in from the north through tonight and prevail for the first half of this week. Another front is expected to approach by midweek, and it may stall over or just south of the region through late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
The forecast is in good shape and only required minor adjustments for the midnight update.

A wedge of high pressure will continue to build from the north tonight, resulting in an unseasonably cool June night. The stratocumulus that stuck around much of the day today has been steadily eroding as the upper trough pulls away from the coastline. Eastern areas will maintain a decent layer of cirrus for much of the night, primarily associated with the remnants of Arlene moving through the Bahamas. Temps look to dip into the 60-65F range for much of the area, except upper 50s in Berkeley, Dorchester, most of Colleton and parts of interior Charleston County.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The large, deep upper low is shown by all models to remain over Nova Scotia and northeast New England through much of the period. Our region will remain on the southern periphery of that upper low, with northwest upper level flow.

Monday and Tuesday: The strong surface wedge of high pressure that has been over the region for days looks to weaken and be replaced by a weak pressure gradient, with even slight troughing of low pressure inland. Blended solutions keep out mention of precip for Monday but add back in slight chance/low end chance PoPs Tuesday with slightly higher values of deep layer moisture. With the weak pressure gradient, the afternoon sea breeze should develop and help be a focus for any isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday. Temperatures near to slightly below normal Monday, likely warming to slightly above normal Tuesday. We could finally see a return to temperatures around 90, especially inland by Tuesday.

Wednesday: Models differ on whether or not the next front will make it to the area. Consensus solution has it reaching the northern forecast area during this period. With the continued presence of the upper trough, slightly better deep layer moisture, have left low chance PoPs, mainly for the afternoon. High temperatures expected to be above normal, similar to Tuesday, generally upper 80s to around 90, except cooler near the coast where a late afternoon sea breeze/more onshore flow will be possible.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The strong, persistent upper low and east coast trough remains over Nova Scotia and New England through at least Friday. This feature, along with increased deep layer moisture/cloud cover, and the potential for upper short waves moving around the base of the upper trough will keep chance PoPs in the forecast each afternoon.
Temperatures near normal.

Saturday and Sunday: Models indicate that the upper low over Nova Scotia will finally weaken and move eastward. However, there the potential that yet another upper level trough will move into the Great Lakes, especially by Sunday, which will keep some upper troughing over the region. Despite the re-development of an upper trough, models not showing much deep layer moisture. Thus have kept only slight chance PoPs for this period, mainly during the afternoon. Temperatures trending back toward normal, but confidence not very high that they will reach above normal.

AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
05/06z TAF discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR is expected for much of the period this week. However, brief flight restrictions are possible due to afternoon and early evening isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. There is still the potential for a weak front to stall near/over the area Wednesday and Thursday, which could slightly increase chances for afternoon convection.

MARINE
Overnight: The remnants of Arlene moving through the Bahamas will merge with a pre-existing trough from near Bermuda west toward Florida. Meanwhile, the high pressure wedge remains inland over the Southeast, and the local gradient will remain rather tight through the night. NE winds will be as high as 20-30 kt over the Atlantic, with seas as large as 5-7 feet within 20 nm and up to 7-9 feet on the outer Georgia waters.
Suffice to say there will be solid Small Craft Advisories in place.

Monday and Monday night: The strong wedge of high pressure inland and lower pressure offshore is expected to finally break down/weaken during the day on Monday. Expect SCA conditions to persist for coastal Atlantic waters through early Monday afternoon, mainly for seas, and linger into Monday evening for offshore GA/AMZ374, also for seas. Expect winds/seas to fall below SCA levels all waters Monday night.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: The pressure gradient increases again with southwest winds of 15-20 knots and seas 3 to 5 feet, but currently not expecting conditions to reach SCA levels.

Wednesday through Friday: No highlights expected. Generally southwest winds of 15 knots or less and seas 2 to 4 feet. Could see winds turn to more northerly Thursday and Friday, but confidence not lower that this will occur.

Rip Currents: Persistent NE winds Monday morning will continue to generate elevated seas, with a somewhat onshore component, especially for our GA beaches. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is in effect for all of our beaches. The risk of rip currents lessens on Tuesday as winds clock around to the SW and seas subside.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
All Coastal Flood Advisories and Warnings have expired.
Expect another round of coastal flooding with high tide Monday evening. Another Coastal Flood Watch may be needed for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties as tides could approach 8.0 ft MLLW (major) again Monday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for AMZ350-352-354.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ374.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA

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Airport Reports

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Wind History from ARW (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Fripp Inlet Bridge, South Carolina

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