Monday, October26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Casas Adobes, AZ

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:40PM Monday October 26, 2020 3:03 AM MST (10:03 UTC) Moonrise 3:36PMMoonset 2:05AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Casas Adobes, AZ
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location: 32.34, -111     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 252243 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 343 PM MST Sun Oct 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Much colder temperatures are on the way as a storm system settles in over the area by Tuesday. This system will bring scattered showers and mountain snow showers late tonight into Tuesday. As the storm moves out of the area, near or below freezing low temperatures are likely across the normally colder valleys east and south of Tucson Tuesday and Wednesday. Then above normal high temperatures return to the area at the end of the week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION. Considerable mid to high level cloud cover over the area in advance of a weak upper level trof over Srn CA/Nrn Baja. Elongated band of mainly virga across central part of forecast area moving east. Thanks to the cloud cover, highs today for most of the area are momentarily the coolest of the month so far.

Much colder temperatures and unsettled weather to start the work week as a storm system developing across NV/UT sags south across the state Monday into Tuesday before moving east late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Tonight: Upslope flow combined with an increase in moisture associated with the upper level trof to our west will increase the chance for showers to develop mainly across Pinal, Graham and Greenlee counties and north. Latest model runs have been consistent on showing a band of moderate rain occurring just outside of our forecast area across southern Gila, Navajo and Apache counties. As the associated cold front drops south into our area later tonight, the chances for showers increases across the eastern two- thirds of the forecast area. Snow levels will be slow to drop overnight.

Monday: Scattered showers mainly across eastern two-thirds of the area in the morning and then drier air pushes in from the west as a closed upper low develops near Phoenix. Snow levels down to around 5000 feet by the afternoon hours with any accumulating snows occurring across the White mountains where 2-4" is possible. Much cooler with highs 12 to 22 degrees colder than today or the first day with below normal highs area wide in over a month.

Monday night into Tuesday morning: Closed upper level low moving across southeast Arizona with wrap around rain/mountain snow showers continuing across Greenlee and eastern Graham county. Otherwise the main news will be the rather cold air mass settling in over the area bringing the first freeze/hard freeze to parts of the area. Models continue to trend colder especially for the coldest valleys south and east of Tucson.

Tuesday: Closed upper low exits the area during the afternoon hours with a few lingering wrap around snow showers across the White mountains ending. Rather chilly afternoon temperatures and a shock to the system after 6 months of above normal temperatures. Some areas may approach record low high temperatures for October 27th.

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning: Another cold night with the coldest valleys south and east of Tucson seeing temperatures in the upper teens to the mid 20s. Recent NBM runs hinting that Willcox could approach their all-time record October low of 15 degrees Wednesday morning.

Ended up adding Hard Freeze Watch to the freeze watch for the colder valley areas south and east of Tucson.

Wednesday: High temperatures rebound 8 to 14 degrees but still well below normal.

Thursday into next weekend: Dry and turning warmer with highs by the weekend well above normal once again.

Outside this forecast package but it appears near record high temperatures are possible to start November. Stay tuned.

AVIATION. Valid through 27/00Z. This afternoon and evening SCT-BKN clouds 12k-15k ft MSL with another BKN-OVC deck AOA 20k ft MSL. Overnight into Monday clouds will lower 3k-4k ft with SCT-BKN coverage. VCSH or isolated -SHRA will be possible starting as early as this evening into Monday from central Pima County eastward. Expect virga showers this afternoon. Sfc winds will be southwesterly this afternoon into the evening 12- 20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts decreasing to 8-12 kts overnight. Monday afternoon winds increase again out of the west/northwest 12-20 kts. Highest speeds will be at KOLS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Dry and breezy conditions will result in elevated fire weather for most of southern AZ today and tomorrow. Brief localized critical fire weather is possible for extreme eastern Cochise and the Chiricahua Mtns this afternoon and early evening as well as far western Pima County on Monday. Winds will generally be out of the southwest to northwest 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Much colder temperatures remain in the forecast Monday into Wednesday with scattered showers mainly from Tucson eastward. Mountains could see some light snow accumulations. Dry conditions return after Wednesday and persist the rest of the week. Minimum relative humidity values are expected between 10-20 percent with slightly higher values across the mountains. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph Tuesday and Wednesday becoming easterly Thursday into the beginning of the weekend.

CLIMATE. Thru today Tucson is currently recording the warmest October on record. The upcoming cold snap ends any chances that it would occur. Likely to end up around 4th/5th warmest.

The forecast high of 61 degrees on Tuesday, October 27th, for Tucson is two degrees off the daily record low maximum of 59 degrees from 1996.

As mentioned above, some of the low temperature guidance for Willcox, be it the NBM, GFS_BC or ECMWF_BC, suggests that near all-time record October low is possible Wednesday morning. The record for Willcox is 15 degrees on October 27, 1970. If the low temperature does fall below 23 degrees it would mark the coldest October low for Willcox in 50 years.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for AZZ502>509.

Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for AZZ503-504-507>509.

Hard Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for AZZ503-507>509.

Hard Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for AZZ503-507>509.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ13 mi65 minSW 610.00 miFair63°F49°F61%1005.9 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ16 mi70 minSSW 510.00 miFair65°F48°F54%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDMA

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE4SE4E6S3SE3S5SW9SW9SW13
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1 day agoS6SE8SE4SE8SE8SE7SE8CalmSE4CalmCalmN7N5N8N8NW8NW5S3S6S5S5SE5SE7SE5
2 days agoE3SE10SE7S8S8S6SE9S7S4SW5W6SE5W5CalmW3W4CalmSW3CalmSE7SE6SE6SE7SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.