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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rillito, AZ

June 24, 2024 10:41 PM MST (05:41 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:17 AM   Sunset 7:37 PM
Moonrise 10:20 PM   Moonset 7:50 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ
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Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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279 FXUS65 KTWC 242124 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 224 PM MST Mon Jun 24 2024


Ample moisture will bring daily chances for thunderstorms to the area through this week. Locally heavy rain will be likely with any thunderstorm that develops, along with an isolated chance for strong wind gusts. Temperatures will heat up a few degrees by the middle of the week as high pressure builds overhead. Looking into July, the pattern is favoring active weather as additional moisture will likely move into southeastern Arizona.


Under a persistent anomalously rich moisture field, convective debris continues to impact precipitation chances across much of southeastern Arizona. As clouds were very gradually clearing, adequate surface heating has allowed for isolated convection to develop early this afternoon. Additionally isolated convection was ongoing in the Whites With precipitable water values exceeding the 99th percentile for this time of year on NAEFS climatological guidance, strong convection will likely produce heavy rainfall rates. Very isolated strong outflow winds can`t be ruled out either, however boundary layer moisture looks high enough with relatively lower DCAPE to preclude any major concerns with outflow winds.

Looking at the rest of this afternoon into this evening, recent CAM runs have toned down the coverage of convection, likely in part due to the cloud cover which has kept surface temperatures down. That isn`t to say impacts on a very isolated level isn`t possible, but coverage at this moment beyond an isolated level looks unlikely. Additional isolated convection will be possible overnight as subtle shortwaves roll through the moisture stream aloft.

The upper level high will become more centered over southeastern Arizona in the coming days. Though any remnant cloud cover each day and the moisture in place may keep temperature trends muted, highs should increase a bit going into mid-week. By the end of the week, the upper high should flatten somewhat, with flow that brings a bit weaker moisture into the area. Even then, daily afternoon-evening precipitation chances remain. In the longer range, ensembles show good support for rich moisture returning to southeastern Arizona into the Independence Day timeframe. This is highlighted by the CPC`s 8-14 day outlook with likely above normal precipitation through the first week in July.

Valid through 26/12Z.

Isolated TSRA through 25/03Z with isolated -SHRA possible overnight. Brief MVFR conditions possible with this activity.
Winds generally remain below 10 kts through the forecast period, though any thunderstorm may produce brief gusty outflow winds.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


Relatively deep moisture will keep RH values on the higher side into next week, along with daily chances for thunderstorms.
Moisture is expected to be deep enough for some storms to generate locally heavy rain. Winds should generally remain below 15 mph each afternoon, though occasional gusts to 20 mph are possible.


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