Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rillito, AZ

DISCUSSION
February is ending today on a very warm note as unusual early season heat has settled into southeast Arizona. A number of monthly records will be approached or perhaps even exceeded today as highs remain 15 to 20 degrees above normal due to anomalously strong ridging over the region.These warm temperatures will continue on Sunday into Monday with widespread daily record temperatures expected (especially Sunday) as the ridging remains in control before the next weather system approaches early next week.
For those that have plans outdoors this weekend, remember to practice heat safety including wearing sunscreen, staying hydrated, and wearing loose and light colored clothing.

As a weather system passes to our north across the Great Basin into central Rockies Monday into Tuesday, that will result in a tightening of the pressure gradient and breezy winds. Breezes will be on the increase Monday afternoon and then again on Tuesday afternoon with widespread westerly sustained winds around 15-22 mph with gusts to around 30 mph each day. Temperatures will notably drop about Tuesday about 6 to 10 degrees compared to Monday, though these high temperatures will still be about 10 degrees above normal. Brief shortwave ridging Wednesday then another trough brings another round of breezes on Thursday. Some uncertainty in the ensembles on Friday and beyond on the evolution of that trough/upper low but regardless the pattern will bring some additional cooling Friday into next weekend as highs return to more seasonable levels.



AVIATION
Valid through 01/12Z.
Mainly SKC with SCT high-level cirrus AOA 20k ft AGL streaming across the region from time-to-time. Surface winds light and terrain driven this morning, then aft 28/20Z becoming WLY/NWLY 7-13 kts. Sfc winds becoming light and terrain driven again aft 01/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Well above normal afternoon temperatures are expected across Southeast Arizona into early next week with record or near record highs through Monday. All-time February records will be approached, tied or exceeded today . High temperatures will generally run 15-20 degrees above normal through this weekend then cool to be 5 to 10 degrees above the middle of next week. 20-foot winds west to northwest winds 10-15 mph with some higher gusts expected each afternoon through the weekend. A series of dry weather disturbances tracking through the Great Basin next week will result in breezy west to northwest winds 15 to 22 mph Monday, Tuesday and Thursday afternoon. Although widespread critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated at this time, brief localized conditions may be present. Minimum relative humidity of 10-20 percent this weekend through the middle of next week.

CLIMATE
All-time February record high temperatures will be approached, tied or exceeded today. Daily records will be approached, tied or exceeded Sunday and Monday.

Location All-time Feb Forecast Daily Record record high Sat Sun Mon Mar 1 Mar 2 Tucson 92: 2/14/1957 90 91 89 87(1986) 91(2009)
Organ Pipe 95: 2/13/1957 95 96 92 92(2016) 93(2009)
Ajo 92: 2/25/2025* 93 95 90 90(2016) 92(2009)
Picacho Peak 89: 2/17/2016* 88 90 88 87(2009) 89(2009)
Oracle 82: 2/10/2017 81 81 78 78(2009) 78(2016)
Safford (town) 87: 2/15/1957 88 89 88 86(2025) 85(2002)
Willcox 88: 2/17/2016* 86 86 85 82(1974) 82(2008)
Sierra Vista 86: 2/18/2014 86 86 84 80(1999) 85(2009)
Nogales (town) 89: 2/ 9/2017 89 89 86 87(1976) 86(2016)
Douglas 86: 2/10/2017* 87 88 87 83(1999) 86(2009)
* last of several occurrences

The official Tucson locations since 1894 have recorded a February high temperature in the lower 90s five times, in 1904 (91), 1921 (91), 1957 (92), 2009 (91) & 2016 (90).

With these very warm temperatures to end February, Tucson is guaranteed to record its warmest February and Winter on record.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.