Friday, August23, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Rillito, AZ

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 7:02PM Friday August 23, 2019 4:19 AM MST (11:19 UTC) Moonrise 11:57PMMoonset 1:09PM Illumination 46% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ
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location: 32.34, -111.15     debug

Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Fxus65 ktwc 230921
area forecast discussion
national weather service tucson az
221 am mst Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis A more active monsoon pattern will continue today and
Saturday with temperatures returning to near or slightly below
normal. A drying trend resumes Sunday with isolated storms limited
to near the international border as high pressure starts to build
back in overhead. Dry conditions generally prevail Monday and
Tuesday with above average temperatures returning. Thereafter,
moisture returns by Wednesday for another chance for showers and
thunderstorms will then exist toward the latter half of next week.

Discussion After an active evening last night, things are much
quieter this morning as convection has diminished and we are left
with some debris cloudiness as IR satellite shows cloud tops have
been warming over the past few hours. Moisture has increased
dramatically with ample moisture transport into southern arizona due
to a strong gulf surge. Dewpoints are currently in the 60's from
tucson westward and in the 50's to the east of tucson.

Correspondingly, the latest gps pwat values are in the 1.5 inch
range for tucson.

Today is likely to be another active day across much of the region.

There are still some uncertainties, especially with how much solar
insolation is available and how worked over the lower atmosphere
will be from the convection last night. In the upper levels, an h3
trough axis will be located across the eastern half of the area and
may help aiding lift as anvils also track east to southeastward. In
the lower to mid levels, a general slow steering flow of the storms
towards the west is expected which is favorable since it will be
away from the anvils. The latest cams including the hrrr, uofa wrf-
nam and uofa wrf-gfs are all fairly active today. Given the deep
moisture available, slower moving storms and antecedent wet
conditions from yesterday in some locales, the primary concern will
be heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding. The most likely
location to see widespread storms will be along the international
border across santa cruz and SW cochise counties with isolated to
scattered storms elsewhere. We did consider a possible flash flood
watch for portions of the area, but confidence is still a bit low so
will defer possible issuance to the day shift.

A favorable pattern is once again expected on Saturday with isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially for the southern
half of the area where the deepest moisture is expected. A drying
trend will commence on Sunday as the mid upper level starts to build
southward and strengthen with increasing heights. There will still
be enough moisture for isolated showers and thunderstorms near the
international border Sunday afternoon with generally dry conditions

Thereafter, dry conditions are generally expected to
prevail Monday and Tuesday as the mid upper level high peaks in
intensity as well above normal temperatures return with the heat
peaking Tuesday.

The hot and dry period early next week will be somewhat short lived
as the combination of the mid upper level high shifting a bit
northward and increased lower level moisture will result in an
uptick in convective activity starting Wednesday with slightly
cooler temperatures following by late next week as well.

Aviation Valid through 24 12z.

Isolated -tsra -shra developing east to south of ktus 18z-20z today.

Scattered to numerous -tsra -shra across much of southeast arizona
later this afternoon into this evening. Expect decreasing coverage
of -tsra -shra tonight with the bulk of -tsra -shra ending by
daybreak Saturday or at end of valid period. Brief wind gusts to 45
kts and MVFR CIGS vsbys with the stronger tsra. Otherwise, cloud
decks mainly 12k-18k ft msl. Surface wind this afternoon wly nwly 8-
15 kts with gusts near 20 kts. Surface wind variable in direction
mostly under 12 kts at other times and aside from TSTM gusts.

Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

Fire weather Scattered to numerous thunderstorms across much of
southeast arizona this afternoon and evening. The bulk of
thunderstorms should end by daybreak Saturday. Scattered
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening favoring southeast to
southwest of tucson, and across the white mountains. Expect only
isolated thunderstorms Sunday followed by dry conditions across much
of the area Monday into Tuesday. Scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms should return next Wednesday and Thursday.

Aside from thunderstorm wind gusts, 20-foot winds will be terrain
driven mainly under 15 mph.

Twc watches warnings advisories None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi82 minESE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F62°F58%1007.4 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi87 minS 510.00 miFair78°F62°F58%1007.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRYN

Wind History from RYN (wind in knots)
Last 24hr------------------CalmNE3E5NW4CalmSE3NW4W5CalmW9
1 day ago--------------------SE4CalmCalmS3W5E5W7W7NW9
2 days ago------------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4NW9NW11W5NW10W3CalmNW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.