Thursday, January21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Rillito, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 5:49PM Thursday January 21, 2021 8:19 PM MST (03:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:30PMMoonset 1:08AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZ
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location: 32.34, -111.15     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 212136 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 236 PM MST Thu Jan 21 2021

SYNOPSIS. Showers and an isolated thunderstorms or two will be possible this afternoon followed by a dry period Friday. Storm systems this weekend into next week will bring cooler temperatures along with valley rain and mountain snow. Also expect gusty winds at times.

DISCUSSION. Water vapor shows the upper level low centered over western Pima County and northern Sonora moving to the east. Synoptic scale lift ahead of this low along with instability/moisture has led to a group of showers with a few isolated lightning strikes forming to the west and southwest of Tucson. Based on current precip gauges these showers are capable of rainfall amounts between 0.10"-0.50" and will likely impact the Tucson metro this afternoon. RAP analysis shows about 250 J/kg of MLCAPE in the area which should sustain this activity through sundown. Hi-res guidance also shows this scenario with shower activity ramping down this evening. There could be some patchy fog in Cochise County early Friday morning, but cloud cover could prevent this from happening. As the low exits the region tonight mostly zonal flow will take over aloft leading to dry conditions on Friday.

This weekend into next week we jump back into an active pattern. Saturday an upper level low will move down the west coast then move through Arizona Sunday. It will bring a much cooler air mass than this past weather system. Moisture will still be in place leading to precip chances again starting Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Showers will be possible north and west of Tucson starting Saturday afternoon and then become more widespread Saturday night and Sunday. Snow levels will be around 6000 feet by Sunday morning with expected snow totals between 4-8 inches through Sunday evening. For valley locations rain amounts are expected to be between 0.05"-0.35". Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Saturday dropping 10-14 degrees below normal by Sunday.

After the low moves off to the east another trough will make its way down the west coast and impact southern Arizona Monday and Tuesday. This will lead to another round of valley rain and mountain snow both days along with continued cold temperatures. The main impact with this system looks to be snowfall. Snow levels are expected to be around 5000 feet Monday and could drop down to some valley floors by Tuesday morning. GEFS and EPS 1000-500mb thicknesses support this with values around 532 dam. Snow totals will likely be the highest so far this winter with winter weather headlines possibly needing to be issued as we get closer to the event.

AVIATION. Valid through 23/00Z. SCT-BKN clouds 6k-9k ft MSL through the forecast period with SCT valley -SHRA/-TSRA expected thru 22/00Z before diminishing this evening. SFC winds WLY/SWLY around 10 kts becoming light and variable aft 22/03Z and remaining 12 kts or less Friday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms will quickly taper off later this afternoon into early evening with dry conditions returning overnight.

A series of colder weather system will then move across the region this weekend into next week, for a continued chance of valley rain and much lower snow levels late Saturday into Sunday and then again Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Some breezy winds are expected during this entire period.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ14 mi34 minE 410.00 miFair54°F48°F82%1017.9 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ19 mi26 minESE 610.00 miA Few Clouds55°F47°F74%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRYN

Wind History from RYN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------SE11SE9CalmCalmSE8SE11S7SW9S16
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1 day ago------------------E16
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E15E16E15E15E17------E8SE12SE9SE19
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2 days ago------------------SE8SE7NE3W3CalmCalmW4S4CalmS16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.