Marine Weather and Tides
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:36AM||Sunset 7:26PM||Thursday July 29, 2021 3:05 PM MST (22:05 UTC)||Moonrise 11:09PM||Moonset 11:09AM||Illumination 70%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rillito, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KTWC 291639 AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 938 AM MST Thu Jul 29 2021
SYNOPSIS. Scattered to perhaps numerous storms are expected today into the weekend. High temperatures will run near to a few degrees below seasonal normals.
DISCUSSION. No updates necessary this morning as the current forecast appeared to handle the trends well for today. Please refer to the previous discussion for more details on the current and projected weather.
AVIATION. Valid through 30/18Z. Light shower activity this morning accompanied by CIGS between 10k- 15k feet. Widespread SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop this afternoon with multiple rounds of activity possible through late tonight. Storm impacts include strong erratic wind gusts in excess of 30 knots, heavy downpours, lowered vsbys, and CIGS dropping to 5k-9k feet. Storms will decrease in coverage overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER. More widespread storm activity is expected today with development beginning early this afternoon and lasting into tonight. Another active day is anticipated for Friday before a downward trend in storm activity begins going into early next week. Storms will likely produce erratic, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. RH values remain well above critical thresholds through early next week. Temps will remain near to slightly below normal. 20- foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph when not influenced by thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION. /Issued 329 AM MST Thu Jul 29 2021/ Currently across southeastern Arizona a decaying MCV can be seen in radar imagery over the western portion of Cochise County moving west. This will continue to produce some light/moderate rain showers or sprinkles through the morning as it moves into Santa Cruz and southern Pima Counties. Another area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are moving across extreme northern Graham and Greenlee counties associated with a weak vort max, which is seen nicely in water vapor. It also appears to be shearing and weakening, but could certainly influence the weather for the northern half of the area later this afternoon as it moves west. Some of the high res models are hinting at this along with the HREF showing a focused area for convection across the northern portions of the CWA. If some organization can occur, strong gusty winds, heavy rain, and some blowing dust may be possible as storms move off the higher terrain and into portions of eastern Pinal County. A localized flash flood threat will also be possible given how saturated the ground is.
Another area to watch will be outflows originating from northern Sonora convection. Some of the high res models hint at this moving southeast to northwest, likely generating thunderstorms along the bndrys. Some of this activity may persist into the overnight hours thanks to the easterly wave moving into the region. Heavy rain and gusty winds would be the main threats with this activity. A localized flash flood threat is also possible, especially with saturated grounds in place. Any training or cell mergers will enhance the threat.
By Friday, the easterly wave will continue to move across northern Sonora. This will influence our weather with another round of showers and thunderstorms. There is lesser confidence on storm evolution depending on what happens later today. However, the western half of the CWA from Tucson to Ajo should be favored.
The weakening easterly wave will begin to push north through Arizona later Friday into Saturday with lessening activity by as early as Sunday. There is decent agreement among the ensembles the high pressure briefly shifts to SW AZ and SoCal, before gradually moving back into the vicinity of the 4-Corners by late week. This return to the 4-Corners would signal another possible uptick if activity. Still plenty of time to watch how this evolves.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.
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|Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ||14 mi||81 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||91°F||63°F||38%||1016.3 hPa|
|Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ||18 mi||68 min||W 3||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||93°F||56°F||29%||1010 hPa|
|Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ||19 mi||73 min||S 6||10.00 mi||Fair||92°F||58°F||32%||1010 hPa|
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Wind History from RYN (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago|
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