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FXUS64 KJAN 282016 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 216 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New DISCUSSION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Tonight and Wednesday: Continued dry through the period with colder than normal temperatures tonight followed by near normal afternoon highs Wednesday.

Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1029mb high centered over our western most zones. This high will continue shifting east and become centered over our CWA tonight before shifting east of Mississippi Wednesday. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed northwest flow aloft that will continue tonight before becoming near zonal Wednesday afternoon. With the surface high centered over the CWA tonight, prime radiational cooling is expected. This will lead to rather cool night as most sites bottom out at or below freezing. With the surface east of Mississippi Wednesday the resulting return flow and near zonal flow aloft will allow temperatures to top out near normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s. /22/

Wednesday night through Friday: As we head into Thursday, we begin a transition to a more active weather pattern with much needed rainfall on the way. Low level trajectories will already be from the south by Wednesday afternoon, but more appreciable moisture return won't occur until Thursday as flow increases. A mid level shortwave trough will track from the Southern Plains toward the Ohio Valley, with a surface low developing over the Red River Valley and into Oklahoma Thursday afternoon. Lighter warm advection rain showers will increase through the day, but meanwhile west of our area, convection will develop during the afternoon given increasing mid level height falls and a potent jet streak. Instability ahead of these storms is expected to be limited, especially with storms not reaching our area until later into the evening and overnight hours. However, when coupled with a 50-70 kt low level jet streak, sufficient instability may exist, particularly the further south and west you go in the area, for isolated strong to severe storms. Confidence remains too low at this time to highlight severe weather potential in the HWO graphics, but this may change within the next day or two as forecast confidence increases. Any severe weather threat should decrease quickly Friday morning as shear decreases. We'll see a break in the rain as the cold front nudges into the area during the day, bringing a drier airmass.

Friday night through next Tuesday: With strong upper level flow becoming nearly parallel to the surface front, the front will stall out over our area this weekend. With the region on the downstream side of a longwave upper/mid trough centered over the central CONUS, upper waves transiting this trough will lead to additional rainfall this weekend into early next week. The placement of the stalled front will drive which areas have the best rain chances and highest totals. At this stage, it appears areas south and east of the Natchez Trace will be most favored.
Meanwhile, areas to the north and west may see little or no additional rain over the weekend. Rain totals for the entire forecast period will average 1-3" across the Pine Belt, with 1-2" amounts possible across the remainder of the area. Most of this rain will be spread out over a long enough time frame to help minimize flooding potential. But we couldn't entirely rule out localized flooding in convection. This threat isn't high enough to warrant an HWO graphic at this time.

General forecast confidence is somewhat lower at the end of this forecast period, but for now it appears the upper trough will shift eastward in the Sunday to Monday time frame, with surface high pressure building across our area bringing drier weather Monday into Tuesday. /DL/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 32 62 40 61 / 0 0 0 50 Meridian 29 60 35 60 / 0 0 0 20 Vicksburg 32 62 41 63 / 0 0 10 80 Hattiesburg 31 62 38 67 / 0 0 0 20 Natchez 34 62 43 64 / 0 0 10 70 Greenville 33 61 41 58 / 0 0 0 80 Greenwood 31 61 41 59 / 0 0 0 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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