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FXUS64 KSHV 282059 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 259 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Fairly close to average mid aftn temp values for late late November with lots of lower 60s around. Light and variable winds remain as the heating weakens the high pressure now around 1028.5mb. Starting to see a little more return flow over E TX with a handful of sites S/SE around 5KT. Skies remain mostly clear this afternoon as our peak of heating is near. This clear sky will linger for much of the overnight with dew points in the 20s for most of us. The return flow will see gentle warming as the moisture lifts back inland. Coldest air overnight will reside generally east of I-49 with a good frost likely with low to mid 30s closer to the departing surface air mass. Farther west, it will be more patchy frost with upper 30s for an average.

From there, we will see the clouds begin to filter back in overhead on Wednesday with rain chances not far behind in this progressive pattern. Highs on Wednesday will be comparable with today as the clouds will intercept some of the afternoon sunshine.
We should begin to see showers edging into our east TX counties during the late day and evening, but moreso overnight with decent coverage expected by daybreak on Thursday. This go around should be a fairly good soaking with 1 to 2 inches widespread in the WPC days 1-3 outlook. They continue with a Marginal risk for excessive as the rain picks up into the long term portion. Lows early on Thursday will see a large range of warmer 40s. /24/

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

By Thursday morning, the beginning of a rather active weather period will already be underway as convection increases areawide ahead of a negatively-tilted trough ejecting out of the Desert SW into the TX Panhandle. Ahead of this trough, a warm front along the TX/LA coast will be lifting back northward as 60F+ dew points slowly advect into our southern zones through Thursday afternoon and evening. SE winds at the sfc will veer slightly more to due southerly with warm fropa, but this will be a gradual process and some uncertainty remains with respect to how quickly this warm front will be able to return north.

For now, it appears that it will likely make it as far north as the US Highway 84 corridor from Deep East TX eastward into NW/Central LA which aligns well with SPC's Day 3 convective outlook of a Marginal to Slight Risk outlining these areas. The bulk of convection should remain sub-severe through much of the day on Thursday before we see an increase in shear and instability across the aforementioned areas in our southern zones by mid to late afternoon through the evening hours. This increase in both low-level and bulk shear will be quite stark, indicative of a potentially favorable tornadic environment in areas from Deep East TX eastward into adjacent parts of NW/Central LA. Concurrently, sfc-based CAPE generally indicates a range from 500-1000 J/kg across these areas from mid to late afternoon through the evening hours. In addition to the potential tornado threat, the threat of damaging winds and heavy rainfall will also accompany this convection. In fact, all of the region is included in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday through Thursday night with widespread 1-2 inch rain amounts and isolated higher totals near 3+ inches possible.

By daybreak on Friday, we should be done with convection across the vast majority of the region as the cold front advances east of the region. Temperatures will be largely unaffected by the front, and we should actually see slightly warmer conditions heading into the weekend as SW flow aloft persists. This moist flow pattern may also allow for some residual convection across the SE half of the region through the weekend before dry conditions return areawide by early next week. /19/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR will continue with light and variable winds this aftn as high pressure slides eastward. Still another frosty night, but a warmer trend as we shift back to SE mid cycle and S/SW 5-10KT for Wednesday. Skies will see increasing mid and high clouds mid to late tomorrow with our next cold front on approach, bringing a load of convective rain overnight and into much of Thursday. Wet SE/S flow will shift to SW late on Thursday with dry line & then to NW on Friday w/ fropa. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 39 65 49 64 / 0 0 70 100 MLU 33 65 43 63 / 0 0 20 90 DEQ 30 62 42 57 / 0 0 60 100 TXK 36 62 46 59 / 0 0 60 100 ELD 33 63 43 59 / 0 0 30 100 TYR 41 64 52 65 / 0 0 70 100 GGG 37 64 49 65 / 0 0 80 100 LFK 39 65 50 68 / 0 0 80 100

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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