Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Frierson, LA

DISCUSSION
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The early afternoon water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave trough extending from Wrn KS through the OK/TX Panhandles into Cntrl NM, which has tapped a plume of elevated moisture from the Ern Pacific into the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley. This moisture plume mainly consists of AC and cirrus cigs, with enough ascent aloft ahead of this trough contributing to areas of weak radar returns over portions of Cntrl and Ern OK. The vast majority of these returns are not reaching the ground given the extensive layer of dry air still residing above the sfc per the 12Z KOUN raob. However, some sprinkles of -RA have been noted between OKC and TSA, although the weak elevated returns over SE OK have failed to do so given the lack of gauge reports and the various AWOS stations failing to report a cig at or below 12kft. The weak elevated forcing should persist through tonight into the mid- morning hours Saturday as this parent shortwave slowly shifts E through OK into the Ozarks, with any deep low level moisture return neglishable to support anything reaching the ground over SE OK/extreme NE TX/adjacent SW AR. Thus, will maintain a dry forecast through much of the coming weekend as we will need some time to moisten the column enough to support a deeper/more extensive cu field while waiting for additional large scale ascent.

The pressure gradient will begin to tighten Saturday in response to leeside sfc low development over the OK/TX Panhandles, which will result in a more modest return of low stratus over E TX/N LA by and after daybreak Saturday, and more of a cu field for the afternoon. Did nudge NBM temps up a degree or so to account for the strong insolation with the decreasing elevated cigs with the departing shortwave, as well as the ongoing warm/moisture advection, with readings near or exceeding 90 degrees over much of the area. A more extensive stratus shield should develop and spread N across much of the region late Saturday night, with the potential weak seabreeze developing during the afternoon while being aided by a weak perturbation aloft that will traverse Srn AR/N LA during the afternoon. The NBM has scaled back chance pops (from previous runs) for the afternoon across N LA, which seems reasonable with the more scattered coverage expected to be mainly S and E of the region. However, did expand slight chance pops back W a bit over N LA to account for any isolated convection that may develop farther W and N.

The flow aloft will become increasingly SW through the day Sunday leading into the start of the new work week, ahead of a deepening upper trough that will dig S through the Great Basin Sunday before traversing the Rockies Sunday night/Monday. Impulses embedded in this flow regime should eventually contribute to more in the way of scattered convection across the region Monday, although the various ensemble members continue to struggle with the timing and placement of the overall areas of deeper convection that could affect the region. In any case, strong heating and the continued influx of Gulf moisture should aid in adequate instability in and near the ascent regions for increased shower and thunderstorm development especially during the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe, with convection possibly lingering into next weekend. While isolated strong/severe storms with heavy rainfall can not be ruled out, the greater potential for any severe through much of the extended period looks to remain farther WNW of the region, closer to the parent trough and stronger forcing.

15

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

For the 16/00z TAF update...VFR conditions currently prevail for all terminals. There is some potential that some lower CIGs tonight could bring some MVFR conditions for KTYR and KGGG, so I have mention of OVC025 for both terminals around 16/12z.
Otherwise, BKN to OVC250 should continue for all terminals throughout the majority of this TAF period, with some SKC towards the very end of the period. Aside from this, southerly winds will remain around 10 kts throughout this TAF period and gusts at times will be around 20-25 kts through Saturday afternoon. /33/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through this weekend. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 70 89 67 89 / 0 0 0 20 DEQ 69 89 68 87 / 10 10 0 10 TXK 72 92 70 90 / 10 10 0 10 ELD 70 89 66 87 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 71 89 71 90 / 10 0 0 10 GGG 71 89 71 90 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 70 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.