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AMZ352 Waters From Edisto Beach Sc To Savannah Ga Out 20 Nm- 255 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming n. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely.

AMZ300 255 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will build into the area tonight. A weak cold front will stall nearby tomorrow, then dissipate as a coastal trough forms offshore late week. The next frontal system should impact the region this weekend into early next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 282043 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 343 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build into the area tonight. A weak cold front will stall nearby tomorrow, then dissipate as a coastal trough forms offshore late week. The next frontal system should impact the region this weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
Tonight: A broad long wave trough will cover much of the eastern half of the nation, as a 1028 mb high centered in the Tennessee valley shifts east. The high bridges across the Southern Appalachians, as it's eastward progress is interrupted by a weak cold front/surface trough. That feature is aligned southeast to northwest across the Charleston tri-county district early on, then close to the Savannah River overnight. This poses a bit of a problem regarding winds and exactly how cold it gets.

The statistical guidance indicates that winds will decouple this evening, but could recouple some late evening and overnight due to the surface front/trough and geostrophic winds climbing to near 15 kt. Even in the absence of excellent radiational cooling, there is enough cold advection in place. The 850 mb progs show the 0C isotherm through most of the Charleston quad- county region, and just 3-5C further south. These conditions under crystal clear skies and a dry air mass will result in the coldest air of the season so far, and possibly the coldest since January 15. While we won't reach any record cold, temps will drop around 15F degrees below climo.

All zones are now in a Freeze Warning, the 6th such Warning of the year, and the first that includes all zones since March 15.
We certainly feel confident on this as the NBM shows 70-100% probabilities of freezing temps just about everywhere inland.
The exceptions will be the barrier islands, downtown Charleston, a good portion of the coastal Chatham zone, and other locations near large bodies of water over the coastal counties. Coastal Chatham especially looks to be affected by drainage winds that hold a more north or north-northeast component in the vicinity of the surface front/trough, which advects a little warmer air in from eastern Beaufort County, Calibogue Sound and parts of the Savannah River. But rather than have coastal Chatham as the only zone not in the Warning, we opted to include it.

The min temp forecast isn't much different than earlier, showing a hard freeze (25-27F degrees) across much of the interior, a solid freeze of 28-31F degrees most elsewhere, except several degrees warmer in the areas mentioned in the previous paragraph.
Freeze duration will be as 7-10 hours far inland, and 1-4 hours inland from the barrier islands. In addition, given RH values reaching 70-85% and not too much wind, frost will be common overnight, most widespread far inland, with patchy to areas of frost closer to the coast.

Finally, steam fog will also be possible near rivers, ponds, marshes, etc.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
Wednesday: Large scale troughing will prevail over the eastern CONUS, with the local forecast area along the southern periphery. At the surface high pressure will hold strong, centered over the southeastern states. While this pattern will yield plentiful sunshine the northwesterly flow aloft will support cold air advection and high temperatures will likely struggle to get out of the 50s, anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The HRRR suggests some high cirrus could begin to overspread the region through the overnight period, however it doesn't appear to have much impact on overnight temperatures. Lows are again expected to dip into the 30s across the region, with patchy to widespread frost possible. Additional Freeze Watches/Warnings may be required if the growing season hasn't ended after Tuesday night's expected freeze.

Thursday and Friday: The broad troughing along the Eastern Seaboard will slowly give way to zonal flow on Thursday, with southwesterly flow by Thursday night. A shortwave trough will ripple through from Texas northward towards the Great Lakes on Thursday and into Friday.
At the surface high pressure will shift offshore Thursday as a cold front approaches from the west. Southwesterly flow aloft will allow for both warmer air and moisture to advect into the forecast area, with a noticeable boost in temperatures, especially on Friday. Highs on Thursday are expected to reach into the low 60s, with low 70s on Friday. Overnight lows on Thursday will also return to near normal, with 40s across the region and close to 50 at the beaches. In addition to a boost in temperatures, moisture will also increase ahead of the approaching front. PWATs initially >0.5 inches on Thursday will surge to around 1.3 inches by Friday afternoon.
Scattered to numerous showers are possible Friday afternoon. The best instability appears to remain offshore, so thunder has not been included in the forecast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
The southwesterly flow aloft will continue through the weekend, with a trough eventually pushing off the East Coast early next week. At the surface a cold front will likely stall just off the southeastern coast Friday night. With the front stalled in the vicinity the forecast will remain rather wet through the weekend until a cold front is able to sweep through the region early next week and clear out the stalled front. Scattered to numerous showers are possible from Friday night through Monday. Some grumbles of thunder are possible, however models are indicating little to no instability, so thunder has not been included in the forecast at this juncture.
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal, owing to the warm air advection aloft.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 29/18z. Some gusty winds at KSAV through around sunset, peaking near 20 kt.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Thursday. Showers are possible at all terminals both Friday and Saturday, bringing the risk of flight restrictions.

MARINE
Tonight: Continental high pressure builds inland, but is stuck west of the mountains as a southeast-northwest oriented cold front or trough develops across the near shore South Carolina waters into parts of South Carolina early on. This feature progresses toward the Georgia waters and the Savannah River overnight. Cold advection will mix much of the 15 or 20 kt geostrophic winds at 1000 mb, so we expect similar speeds over the area. Winds will average NW or N on the Georgia waters, veering from NW around to the N-NE on the South carolina waters through the night. Seas are held to 2-4 feet, highest on the outer Georgia waters where the fetch is the best. Marine interests should be alert for possible steam fog in parts of the Charleston area rivers, the Savannah River, and other rivers of the coastal counties late.

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will prevail over the local coastal waters through Friday. Generally NW winds around 10 knots will shift to the NE by Friday. Seas should average 1 to 2 ft through Friday. A cold front will become stalled in the vicinity through the weekend, resulting in an unsettled pattern across the coastal waters. Winds out of the SW will surge slightly to 10 to 15 knots, with seas building to 3 to 4 ft. Conditions are currently forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory level criteria.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Wednesday for SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...None.

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Battery Creek
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Tue -- 02:48 AM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:29 AM EST     9.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:31 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:53 PM EST     7.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Battery Creek, 4 mi. above entrance, Beaufort River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Brickyard Point
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Tue -- 03:31 AM EST     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:27 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:46 AM EST     9.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:14 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:10 PM EST     7.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Brickyard Point, Brickyard Creek, South Carolina, Tide feet

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