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FXUS64 KSHV 090523 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1123 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 932 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

No changes with this update aside from adding some maybe severe wording through late this evening in SE OK and SW AR.

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 932 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

The hourly HRRR for so long, all afternoon maybe, had this right and then gave up just before suppertime as the convection initiation occurred soon after. Now it is sporting some convection down Shreveport way in the coming hours. So no changes to pops or weather, but the time shift past 03Z to 06Z did change weather to some extent. And now considering the likelihood of this sort of radar activity for a few hours, just decided to add that wording for our area with some maybe severe. The SPC has kept with their marginal risk going and are still are not considering anymore than 20% for watch in their MD. Wind may become a concern as well for a few hours this evening as the dry line pushes under this lead short wave. /24/

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

By Sunday, a post-frontal airmass will be in place across the Four State Region. Expect below normal temperatures, as highs will range from the low to mid 50s across the area. Surface high pressure will settle across the region by Sunday night. Clear skies and light winds will set the stage for good radiational cooling, and possibly freezing temperatures areawide by Monday morning. Expect quiet conditions to continue through most of the work week under upper- level ridging, with a gradual warm-up to near normal temperatures.
Afternoon highs will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Could see some clouds move into the region by mid week ahead of another cool front, which will bring a return in rain chances by Friday and possibly into next weekend. /20/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2023

For the ArkLaTex terminals, VFR bcmg MVFR this overnight with breezy southerly winds. A lead short wave is edging over W AR attm and may trigger SHRA, but TS keeping N of our sites. SFC winds will veer to S/SW toward daybreak. Overnight some low level speed shear for a few sites. Approaching cold front will shift wind to W/NW for our TX terminals late a.m. through mid aftn with scat shwrs about. We should see TS dvlpmt by 21Z b/t KSHV and KMLU with fropa down our LA I-20 corridor late aftn/early eve. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 77 41 55 / 20 40 20 0 MLU 64 78 42 54 / 30 50 60 0 DEQ 58 64 33 51 / 50 30 10 0 TXK 62 70 37 50 / 40 40 10 0 ELD 62 73 37 52 / 40 50 30 0 TYR 64 71 37 54 / 10 20 10 0 GGG 64 74 39 55 / 20 30 10 0 LFK 66 76 41 56 / 20 40 30 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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Shreveport, LA,