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FXUS64 KJAN 242329 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 629 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

For the tonight period to Wednesday May 1st...the overall take on the forecast is mostly above normal and warm for temperatures with a focus on a couple interesting periods. The first being Saturday for increased winds/gusts of 30-40 mph then a opportunity for rain/storms early next week.

The near term is generally quiet with a weak front making it way into the N sections of the forecast now and will stall later tonight. Some low end precip chances will exist on Thursday across the N due to the proximity of the front and a weakening wave moving out of AR. As we wrap up the week and get into the weekend, the pattern will favor stronger ridging to develop just to our E while a more potent trough and stronger system moves into the Plains.

With the system impacting the Plains more on Fri-Sun, our area will still be under the influence of mid/upper ridging. However, we will see a tightening pressure gradient by Friday. Look for some breezy conditions on Friday, but strong winds by Saturday with decent potential to see wind gusts of 30-40 mph by Saturday afternoon. I will add a graphic to highlight that threat.

Most precip/storm activity will remain to our W/NW into the weekend.
However, by later Sunday afternoon/night...we should see a weakening ridge thus increased potential to get precip/storms into our W/NW by this time. NBM Guidance captures the probability well and fits the potential progression.

For Monday-Tuesday...Uncertainty is quite high to start the week as our area will see a mid/upper trough move into and across the area.
While a signal is consistent for the trough and resulting rain/storm chances, the specifics and details will matter and we're very far from getting that that. This is the time of year where convective activity across the S Plains wreaks havoc on predictability for us.
MCS's often develop to our W/NW and translating boundaries and remnant MCVs set the stage for activity the following day. Global guidance is offering such solutions, but timing, shear/cold pool orientation are varying, thus instability and potential for any strong/svr storms is quite variable. Best course at this time is to follow the consensus guidance and note there's potential for rain/storms with some possibility for svr/heavy rains, but overall confidence is low.

For mid-week, the signal is much better as the governing pattern shifts to one of building heights as a ridge axis gets established.
This will bring quiet conditions, but warmer and above normal to start May. /CME/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions exist across much of the area early this evening, though a layer of VFR stratocumulus has encompassed much of the region this afternoon. Early Thu morning, MVFR/IFR to locally LIFR ceilings are expected to develop across parts of south MS and LA, lifting or dissipating by mid/late morning. Patchy fog is also possible around daybreak mainly across south MS and central LA.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the daytime Thursday. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 59 83 62 84 / 10 10 0 0 Meridian 57 83 61 86 / 10 10 0 0 Vicksburg 62 84 64 85 / 0 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 59 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 60 84 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 62 80 64 83 / 20 20 0 0 Greenwood 59 81 64 83 / 10 20 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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