Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laurel Bay, SC

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Rain chances will increase later this week.

- 2) Afternoon heat index values could climb into the 105 to 110 degree range across the I-95 corridor Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances will increase later this week.

Fairly strong mid to upper level ridging will continue into Wednesday, with the resulting subsidence maintaining mostly rain-free conditions. The surface high to our north will gradually shift east into the western Atlantic, with a warm and moist southerly flow developing. This will bring a more typical summertime pattern to the area Thursday into the weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to approach the area Friday, then stall over the area this weekend. This will bring an increase in mainly diurnal convection, though with a nearby boundary, convection could continue through the overnight hours as well.
There could be enough instability to support a few strong/severe thunderstorms during each afternoon, primarily Friday through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Afternoon heat index values could climb into the 105 to 110 degree range across the I-95 corridor Friday and Saturday.

An increasingly moist airmass will advect into the area Friday and Saturday as southerly flow develops. Dewpoints will surge into the mid 70s across coastal counties each afternoon, particularly after the sea breeze develops. Pre-frontal compression ahead of the cold front will likely push temps well into the 90s both days, though Saturday looks the hottest. We could see a couple hours of 105-110 degree heat indices Friday and Saturday afternoons, mainly along the I-95 corridor. Heat Advisories are possible.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
00Z TAFs - While most will remain VFR into the overnight period, there is potential for MVFR cigs at the CHS/JZI terminals after midnight and into the early morning hours. Given the weak winds with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s, close to overnight lows, patchy fog can't be ruled out, though any fog is not currently expected to impact CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. The wind tomorrow will have a southerly component to it, out of the southwest in the morning with an afternoon sea breeze swinging them around to become out of the southeast. Similar to today, can't rule out some isolated diurnally driven showers/storms on Wednesday, though probabilities are currently low.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. However, brief flight restrictions are possible with afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday.

MARINE
A very typical summertime pattern is anticipated Wednesday through early next week. Prevailing southerly winds will be enhanced a bit each afternoon near the coast as a sea breeze develops.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.