Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laurel Bay, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Sea breeze/outflow boundary collision was rather uneventful, casting doubt on the potential for convective activity through the rest of the evening. Instability remains in place, but drier air aloft seems to be winning out currently. However, relatively higher mid level RH values are moving across the midlands and will cross the coastal plain overnight, so low end storm chances still linger through the overnight hours.
Otherwise, it will remain warm and moist with lows falling into the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s/near 80 at the beaches.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
An expansive upper ridge centered over the Deep South will deepen as it nudges toward the Mid Atlantic in the wake of a departing trough. Model consensus shows a cold front to our north stalling out and quickly dissipating just before reaching the area Friday. Surface high pressure will remain fixed over the Atlantic, before strengthening over the Appalachians during the weekend once the cold front dissipates. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are forecast nearly each day. Friday's forecast contains the highest rain chances with 30-40% POPs in place, as the incoming front provides some weak surface forcing.
Otherwise, over the weekend convection becomes limited to isolated coverage with initiation mainly expected along the sea breeze. Additionally, the strengthening upper ridge will result in weak subsidence seen via mid-level capping developing in model soundings. This will not only contribute to lessening shower/tstm coverage over the weekend, but also the continued trend of above normal temperatures. Highs each day will reach the low to mid 90s, while the beaches top out in the upper 80s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The aforementioned upper level ridge remains strong as the center slides back down towards the TN/AL region by Wednesday.
Given the strong ridge resulting in minimal/near-zero divergence aloft, chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will be decreased in the long term, with the NBM currently keeping pops near 20% in the afternoons. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal, increasing ever so slightly towards the mid 90s in areas away from the coast. Maximum heat indices will average in the 100- 106 degree range through at least the middle of next week. Some locations will approach Heat Advisory criteria Tuesday/Wednesday and will continue to monitor the need for Heat Advisories.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
20/00z TAF Discussion: Primary aviation threat will be the expected increase in convective coverage along and east of the I-95 corridor through late evening as an approaching outflow boundary intersects the sea breeze. Frequent lightning, gusty/erratic winds, significant visibility restrictions, and hail are possible with the strongest storms. Storm coverage is expected to decrease afternoon midnight, with VFR and mainly light winds prevailing thereafter into midday Friday.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon.

MARINE
Tonight: Winds will continue to surge through this evening the Charleston County coast and Charleston Harbor as the gradient tightens in response to an approaching mid level wave. After the evening surge, elevated south winds will veer to the southwest overnight, settling into the 10-15 kt range with seas 3-5 ft over the local marine area through the early morning hours. A few strong tstms could impact the coastal waters later this evening into the early morning hours Friday, bringing a risk for wind gusts in excess of 34 kt, cloud-to- water lightning and locally heavy rainfall reducing vsbys to 1 NM or less. Special Marine Warnings may be needed.

Friday through Tuesday: Benign conditions will persist with Atlantic high pressure parked to the east. No marine concerns are expected through the period.

Rip Currents: A moderate rip current risk continues for the Charleston County beaches through 8 PM.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ352-354.