Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Canton, MS

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Updated near-term forecast through tomorrow afternoon with the latest guidance. Made an adjustment to blend in more raw model guidance with tonights min temps, as steady low-level flow and a passing mid-level shortwave trough will make radiational cooling difficult. A solid low stratus deck north of our CWA may even edge into areas which NBM guidance suggest should cool most easily.
Bias correction appears to be incorrectly lowering temps in areas of the US Highway 82 corridor. The resulting adjustment keeps tonight's lows close to 40 degrees even in the typically cooler areas. Tomorrow night has stronger signals for good radiational cooling and potential frost in parts of the CWA

DISCUSSION
Issued at 225 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Through Saturday: continued dry and noticeably cooler. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave rounding the base of a closed upper level low spinning over the Great Lakes region.
This shortwave will help support a >1020mb surface high drop southeast into our region while supporting a dry cold front move through our CWA This dry cold front was already south of Highway 82 and will push southeast of our CWA early this evening. In its wake cooler and drier air will filter into the CWA Normal morning lows run in the 40s but our north and central sites will likely bottom out a degree or two cooler than normal. Saturday the shortwave trough will continue east of our CWA leaving near zonal flow aloft while the surface high to the north continues to push into the CWA
Our normal highs run from the mid 60s north to the lower 70s south.
Afternoon highs Saturday will run from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south. /22/

Much cooler temperatures will continue through Sunday night, and this will support the potential for patchy areas of frost over north central into northeast MS both Sat night and Sun night. The dry soil conditions will support overachieving of the nocturnal cooling processes. At the same time, we'll have to consider the potential for cirrus cloud decks, which could keep temperatures from dropping as much. Putting these factors together yields uncertainty for low temperatures and potential frost impacts. We are maintaining the current limited frost threat in our messaging for Sat night and Sun night.

Early to mid next week: Quiet, cloudy and mostly dry pattern will persist into the following week. Eastward ejection of upper low is slower than yesterday morning, with the center over west TX.
This will keep moist, isentropic ascent and cloudy conditions draped across the Gulf Coast states through at least mid week (Wednesday). Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower during this time but with upper low filling in and becoming more open wave, ascent will be less as it propagates eastward. With some thermal temps warming, highs will moderate from seasonable early week to seasonably warm mid week (68F to 76F Monday to 70F to 78F by Wednesday). Lows will remain seasonably cool but gradually less cold. The synoptic pattern becomes less confident in late week: synoptic amplitude becomes less confident in western zone of jet energy across the Plains from the GFS while the Euro shows more deep mean troughing for areas east of the Plains. Cluster analysis indicate a good percentage of members from the ECENS and GEFS (30 to 45 percent) favor a clusters/pattern closer to the Euro, GEFS and AI (global model suite and ensemble). This favors a drier and cooler pattern into late week. Will have to monitor the synoptic setup for increased wildfire danger as gradient winds could increase in a well-mixed dry boundary layer by Friday. /EC/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at the TAF sites through the period, with north winds generally 5-10 kts. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 47 68 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 45 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 46 68 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 48 72 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 50 70 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 44 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 41 63 35 66 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.