Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Canton, MS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Tonight and Friday: Warmer than normal and dry through the period.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge across our CWA from the east and a low over the northern Plains with a trailing cold front back across the central and southern Plains. The resulting pressure gradient across our CWA was resulting in a gusty southwest to south wind that will gradually subside this evening. This gusty south wind has worked to increase low level moisture across our region and dew points were running in the lower 70s. This increase in low level moisture will help hold temperatures well above normal tonight. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over the northern Plains. This low will shift east through Friday and help drop the cold front into northern Mississippi. The upper level ridging over our CWA today will have shifted east leaving near zonal flow aloft. This will help the cold front stall north of our CWA There will be the potential for strong to severe storms along and south of the cold front but, at this time it appears any threat for severe weather in our north will hold off until Friday night. /22/

Friday night through Wednesday night:

Quasi-zonal flow to prevail across the CWA through the weekend with afternoon highs peaking into the upper 80s/lower 90s areawide. With this quasi-zonal flow expected across the region, an unstable airmass will begin to move into the region. This airmass, combined with a couple of upper-level disturbances aloft and some northerly moisture flow from the Tennessee Valley, will allow for rain/storm chances across central/northern portions of our CWA around the Friday night through Sunday evening/night timeframe. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.

The "Marginal" risk (1 out of 5) for Friday night has been expanded slightly further south with the main hazards being damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. In addition, the "Slight" risk (2 out of 5) for severe weather that was upgraded last forecast package has been expanded in our northwest today.
Damaging wind gust up to 60-70 mph and hail up to golf ball size will be the main concerns for areas highlighted in our latest graphic. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall at times, with rainfall totals ranging between 0.5-1 inches. Given that this system will moving quite fast across our CWA, flash flooding concerns will be low; however, some localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

Rain chances will begin to decrease Sunday night into the new work week as a sfc ridge builds over the southeast CONUS. Quiet conditions will continue across much of our forecast area with a slight chance of scattered showers across portions of the Golden Triangle heading into Monday afternoon. Quiet weather conditions will occur across the area looking ahead into Tuesday morning as future global guidance shows the ridge axis beginning to slowly push east away from our forecast area giving us a small little break from the rain.

A significant low pressure system over the Central Plains will push east towards the Ohio River Valley region Tuesday afternoon/ evening. The associated cold front over southern Texas will track east towards the southeast region late Tuesday evening. This combined with southerly moisture flow from the Gulf will help reintroduce scattered showers/t-storm chances across our entire CWA
Storm chances will continue heading into Wednesday as the cold pushes east across our forecast area. /SW/

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions to start the period as scattered to broken low stratus is beginning to spread north from the Gulf Coast. Mixing and lifting of the between 14Z-17Z should bring prevailing VFR conditions by 18Z at all sites. Gusty winds to return in that time frame as well, with gusts up to around 20-25 kts possible. Chances for any showers or storms near KGLH were too low to include at this time, though cannot be entirely ruled out between 00Z-06Z Saturday. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 74 91 71 91 / 20 30 20 10 Meridian 72 91 69 90 / 10 30 20 30 Vicksburg 74 91 72 91 / 20 20 20 10 Hattiesburg 74 94 72 94 / 0 10 10 0 Natchez 75 91 72 90 / 0 10 10 0 Greenville 72 90 71 89 / 60 20 40 30 Greenwood 72 90 70 89 / 60 30 40 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.