Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Columbus, GA
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Columbus, GA
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Area Discussion for Peachtree City, GA
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FXUS62 KFFC 172336 AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 736 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
New 00Z Aviation Discussion
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
Satellite imagery, 500 mb analysis, and surface analysis depict an occluded low pressure system over the Great Lakes. The line of storms that pushed through this morning has largely dissipated as the orientation of the line became parallel to the west-to-east flow aloft and lost steam. The question mark for this afternoon and evening is if convection will fire up along the outflow produced by this morning's storms, as well as any differential heating boundaries. The outflow boundary currently stretches roughly from Augusta to Macon to Columbus. The HRRR suggests that dense mid-/upper-level cloud cover over central Georgia will persist through the remainder of the day -- supported by current satellite trends -- which would hinder destabilization. That said, SPC is maintaining a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for strong to severe storms across central Georgia, as any storms that do develop will take advantage of MUCAPE at 1000-2000 J/kg and, if enough clearing occurs, 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Effective bulk shear is analyzed at 40-50 kts with 20-30 kts of 0-1 km shear, oriented parallel to the outflow boundary. Putting all of this together, a strong to severe storm or two remains a possibility this afternoon and evening. Damaging straight-line wind gusts, hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be hazards.
As has been the case today, quasi-zonal flow aloft will persist overnight and tomorrow (Sunday). The CAMs are showing something of an MCS developing from upscale growth of convection well to our west (over eastern Texas) and plowing eastward overnight into tomorrow morning. Any convection that does become organized to our west could track along and feed off of the outflow boundary/baroclinic zone left over by today's convection across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Given this possibility -- and the fact that most of the CAMs indicate some degree of organized convection developing, albeit with poor run-to-run consistency -- all of north and central Georgia remains under a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms tomorrow, per SPC. The HRRR depicts a sharp CAPE gradient setting up across a portion of central Georgia by the afternoon, so what remains of the potential morning MCS could become reinvigorated by afternoon heating. Have capped PoPs tomorrow at 25% to 30% area-wide as there is uncertainty regarding the evolution of the potential MCS.
Martin
LONG TERM
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
We kick off this discussion at the beginning of the work week (unless you are me) on Monday where Georgia will be caught between two long wave troughs under the influence of a subtropical ridge but kind of near the eastern edge of it. Copious amounts of day time heating combined with some warm air advection will bring the always fun May combo of surface temps near or over 90 and dewpoints approaching or exceeding 70. Convection is expected to develop well to the north over the Ohio River Valley during the morning to afternoon. CAMs that extend into this time period show cold pool organization of this convection that aligns itself with the NW flow aloft right along the instability gradient on the edge of the subtropical ridge. This line of storms pushes to the south and potential into northern GA by the evening to late evening, with the greatest chances in NE GA. As a for instance, the NAM 3km shows upwards of 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE in place across NE GA with 0-6km shear in excess of 60 kts. This is plenty to drive a potential damaging wind threat. Add in a little bit of SRH noted in some of the soundings thanks to surface winds from the SW and storm motions from NW to SE, and you could get some local updraft enhancements to aid in bringing strong winds down to the surface.
So, will continue to monitor this time period given the potential.
The caveat of all this is potential failure modes, such as storms being positioned more to the east, or failure for convection to organize to the north of us for any number of reasons (junk- section ruining instability, for instance).
These storms should weaken as they push south with the loss of day time heating, and, at least for now, look like they will be the only game in town overnight on Monday. Going into Tuesday, the upper level pattern does its best Avril Lavigne impression and gets complicated. Initial system that brought storms on Monday will push to the NW over the upper Great Plains. Another upper level system will push in underneath it, triggering the formation of another surface low and more convection. Convection will likely be ongoing through the day on Tuesday to the west, with some potential for a severe weather outbreak. A lot of what happens for Georgia will depend on how convection evolves through the day on Tuesday. However, ensembles do like the idea of storms, potentially organized into line segments or broken line segments, pushing into the CWA by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes everything towards us. Whether or not this hangs on, will be severe, etc, is still subject to a lot of uncertainty.
Models agree that better instability will reside to the west over AL and TN, but ensembles show a good bit of disagreement on if or how far into Georgia that instability will exist. GEFS mean MUCAPE shows 1000 or so J/kg in parts of NW Georgia Tuesday night that sharply falls off into the rest of GA, but the deterministic GFS basically keeps all instability out of Georgia. So, we wait and see. Stay tuned to the forecast on this one.
On Wednesday the cold front is progged to move through the state.
Depending on speed of it, some thunderstorms may be possible in portions of central and especially east central Georgia as it makes its way through during the afternoon hours. The bigger story may be the more spring like temperatures filtering in behind.
Enjoy it, it might be the last you see of 70s for highs until summer is over. Highs on Thursday are near 70 to near 80 from north to south across the state, and warm up only a few degrees on Friday. Thursday night could see a few places in north GA drop into the upper 40s (!) and parts of the mountains see temps in the mid to lower 40s (!).
Lusk
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
A cold front has cleared the area, and CIGs are expected to continue to slowly rise into the overnight hours. After 04Z a BKN250 deck will be all that's left of this morning's weather. Some MVFR cigs are possible after 10Z before becoming likely by 15Z.Winds will be 5- 10 kts out of the west.
//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
High on all elements.
Vaughn
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 65 86 64 88 / 0 30 10 30 Atlanta 68 86 68 89 / 10 30 10 20 Blairsville 60 81 58 81 / 0 30 10 60 Cartersville 64 85 64 88 / 10 30 10 30 Columbus 68 89 69 91 / 20 30 10 0 Gainesville 67 84 65 86 / 0 30 10 40 Macon 67 88 67 92 / 10 30 10 10 Rome 65 87 64 88 / 20 30 10 40 Peachtree City 65 86 66 90 / 20 30 10 10 Vidalia 70 90 70 93 / 20 30 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 736 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
New 00Z Aviation Discussion
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
Satellite imagery, 500 mb analysis, and surface analysis depict an occluded low pressure system over the Great Lakes. The line of storms that pushed through this morning has largely dissipated as the orientation of the line became parallel to the west-to-east flow aloft and lost steam. The question mark for this afternoon and evening is if convection will fire up along the outflow produced by this morning's storms, as well as any differential heating boundaries. The outflow boundary currently stretches roughly from Augusta to Macon to Columbus. The HRRR suggests that dense mid-/upper-level cloud cover over central Georgia will persist through the remainder of the day -- supported by current satellite trends -- which would hinder destabilization. That said, SPC is maintaining a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for strong to severe storms across central Georgia, as any storms that do develop will take advantage of MUCAPE at 1000-2000 J/kg and, if enough clearing occurs, 2000-3000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Effective bulk shear is analyzed at 40-50 kts with 20-30 kts of 0-1 km shear, oriented parallel to the outflow boundary. Putting all of this together, a strong to severe storm or two remains a possibility this afternoon and evening. Damaging straight-line wind gusts, hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning will be hazards.
As has been the case today, quasi-zonal flow aloft will persist overnight and tomorrow (Sunday). The CAMs are showing something of an MCS developing from upscale growth of convection well to our west (over eastern Texas) and plowing eastward overnight into tomorrow morning. Any convection that does become organized to our west could track along and feed off of the outflow boundary/baroclinic zone left over by today's convection across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Given this possibility -- and the fact that most of the CAMs indicate some degree of organized convection developing, albeit with poor run-to-run consistency -- all of north and central Georgia remains under a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms tomorrow, per SPC. The HRRR depicts a sharp CAPE gradient setting up across a portion of central Georgia by the afternoon, so what remains of the potential morning MCS could become reinvigorated by afternoon heating. Have capped PoPs tomorrow at 25% to 30% area-wide as there is uncertainty regarding the evolution of the potential MCS.
Martin
LONG TERM
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
We kick off this discussion at the beginning of the work week (unless you are me) on Monday where Georgia will be caught between two long wave troughs under the influence of a subtropical ridge but kind of near the eastern edge of it. Copious amounts of day time heating combined with some warm air advection will bring the always fun May combo of surface temps near or over 90 and dewpoints approaching or exceeding 70. Convection is expected to develop well to the north over the Ohio River Valley during the morning to afternoon. CAMs that extend into this time period show cold pool organization of this convection that aligns itself with the NW flow aloft right along the instability gradient on the edge of the subtropical ridge. This line of storms pushes to the south and potential into northern GA by the evening to late evening, with the greatest chances in NE GA. As a for instance, the NAM 3km shows upwards of 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE in place across NE GA with 0-6km shear in excess of 60 kts. This is plenty to drive a potential damaging wind threat. Add in a little bit of SRH noted in some of the soundings thanks to surface winds from the SW and storm motions from NW to SE, and you could get some local updraft enhancements to aid in bringing strong winds down to the surface.
So, will continue to monitor this time period given the potential.
The caveat of all this is potential failure modes, such as storms being positioned more to the east, or failure for convection to organize to the north of us for any number of reasons (junk- section ruining instability, for instance).
These storms should weaken as they push south with the loss of day time heating, and, at least for now, look like they will be the only game in town overnight on Monday. Going into Tuesday, the upper level pattern does its best Avril Lavigne impression and gets complicated. Initial system that brought storms on Monday will push to the NW over the upper Great Plains. Another upper level system will push in underneath it, triggering the formation of another surface low and more convection. Convection will likely be ongoing through the day on Tuesday to the west, with some potential for a severe weather outbreak. A lot of what happens for Georgia will depend on how convection evolves through the day on Tuesday. However, ensembles do like the idea of storms, potentially organized into line segments or broken line segments, pushing into the CWA by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a cold front pushes everything towards us. Whether or not this hangs on, will be severe, etc, is still subject to a lot of uncertainty.
Models agree that better instability will reside to the west over AL and TN, but ensembles show a good bit of disagreement on if or how far into Georgia that instability will exist. GEFS mean MUCAPE shows 1000 or so J/kg in parts of NW Georgia Tuesday night that sharply falls off into the rest of GA, but the deterministic GFS basically keeps all instability out of Georgia. So, we wait and see. Stay tuned to the forecast on this one.
On Wednesday the cold front is progged to move through the state.
Depending on speed of it, some thunderstorms may be possible in portions of central and especially east central Georgia as it makes its way through during the afternoon hours. The bigger story may be the more spring like temperatures filtering in behind.
Enjoy it, it might be the last you see of 70s for highs until summer is over. Highs on Thursday are near 70 to near 80 from north to south across the state, and warm up only a few degrees on Friday. Thursday night could see a few places in north GA drop into the upper 40s (!) and parts of the mountains see temps in the mid to lower 40s (!).
Lusk
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025
A cold front has cleared the area, and CIGs are expected to continue to slowly rise into the overnight hours. After 04Z a BKN250 deck will be all that's left of this morning's weather. Some MVFR cigs are possible after 10Z before becoming likely by 15Z.Winds will be 5- 10 kts out of the west.
//ATL Confidence
00Z Update
High on all elements.
Vaughn
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Athens 65 86 64 88 / 0 30 10 30 Atlanta 68 86 68 89 / 10 30 10 20 Blairsville 60 81 58 81 / 0 30 10 60 Cartersville 64 85 64 88 / 10 30 10 30 Columbus 68 89 69 91 / 20 30 10 0 Gainesville 67 84 65 86 / 0 30 10 40 Macon 67 88 67 92 / 10 30 10 10 Rome 65 87 64 88 / 20 30 10 40 Peachtree City 65 86 66 90 / 20 30 10 10 Vidalia 70 90 70 93 / 20 30 10 10
FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KCSG
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KCSG
Wind History Graph: CSG
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of southeast
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