Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Longview, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The morning stratocu cigs have finally begun to lift but continue to struggle to scatter out, given that the low level moisture layer has deepened in the lowest 6kft per the 18Z KSHV raob.
Stronger winds aloft have also begun to mix down resulting in some gusts upwards to 20-25kts, in response to a tightening pressure gradient that has developed over the Srn Plains E of a cold front extending from Wrn KS SW into SE CO/OK Panhandle. Have seen a few isolated areas of -RA develop through the morning across the region along an axis of deepening theta-e advection, as well as a weak mid level shortwave that is lifting NE through E TX. These areas of -RA have mostly diminished, although widely scattered convection has begun to develop across ECntrl and SE LA attm, with the latest progs suggest that will lift across Ern LA/MS through the afternoon. Still can't rule out additional isolated to widely scattered convection development this afternoon farther W across our region as the mid level trough continues to translate ENE across the area, before diminishing this evening with the loss of heating. The air mass across our region remains well-capped per the 18Z KSHV raob, and with little if any cooling aloft associated with this weak impulse, not expecting much deepening/impacts of the convection this afternoon as the capping should hold.

The flow aloft is expected to transition to SW late this afternoon through tonight, which will set the stage for a prolonged period of unsettled weather through much of the forecast period. The short term progs continue to suggest a weak perturbation in the flow aloft traversing the region later this evening/overnight, which may result in isolated convection redevelopment mainly across portions of NE TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, as we await for the next potential impulse arriving Monday afternoon. The NBM has drastically cut back on pops (to little or none) across the area Monday afternoon, which is likely overdone, but did retain slight chance mention for much of the region to respect the moisture profile as well as ascent expected with this approaching shortwave. Some of the short term progs also hint at some convection possibly spreading into portions of NE TX/SE OK/SW AR Monday evening before diminishing, but overall, Monday appears to be the "pick day" of the entire forecast period before convection becomes more active across the region.

The progs suggest that a cold front will shift SE through OK and NW TX Monday night before becoming stationary Tuesday afternoon from the Ozarks into Ern OK and N TX, NW of our region. Convection should be ongoing along and just behind the front Tuesday morning, with the potential for outflows from the convection migrating SE and interacting with the deeper moisture laden air mass ahead of the next weak shortwave impulse that is progged to eject NE through ECntrl and NE TX by afternoon/evening. Thus, convection should increase during the afternoon from E TX into SE OK/SW AR/possibly NW LA, before gradually spreading ENE. Thus, pops have been increased to likely over these areas, with the potential for some scattered strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon over the initiation area given the extent of instability that will develop under strong insolation. Heavy rainfall also can't be ruled out, with this threat expected to wane late as the convection weakens with the stabilizing bndry lyr.

Mesoscale bndrys from this convection may help play a role in later convection initiation Wednesday as the next impulse aloft is set to traverse the region. Unfortunately, model discrepancies with regards to timing and placement of convection development continue throughout the remainder of the extended, although confidence remains high that additional weaknesses aloft will continue to focus periods of convection across the region even through at least a portion (if not all) of next weekend. Thus, near to below normal temps, additional beneficial rainfall (some possibly heavy), and the potential for minor flooding is expected.

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AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

An enhanced pressure gradient will allow for prevailing south to southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots overnight, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts on Monday. Ceilings forecast to become MVFR near daybreak, improving to VFR by 18/15Z. Ceilings expected to break by early afternoon. Otherwise, could see a slight chance for convection on Monday afternoon, but chances too low to mention in forecast at this time. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 89 74 88 / 10 20 30 50 MLU 74 90 73 89 / 10 20 20 50 DEQ 73 88 72 84 / 20 20 30 80 TXK 75 90 74 89 / 20 20 30 60 ELD 73 88 72 88 / 20 20 20 60 TYR 76 89 75 87 / 20 10 30 60 GGG 75 89 75 87 / 20 10 30 50 LFK 75 89 75 88 / 20 20 20 50

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.