Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for East Mountain, TX
 | Sunrise 6:14 AM Sunset 8:16 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM Moonset 2:27 PM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Mountain, TX
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS64 KSHV 221036 AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 536 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Near zonal flow aloft this morning will give way to northwest flow today as ridging begins to build from the Desert Southwest into the Rockies. Meanwhile at the surface, a frontal boundary is currently located across northern Oklahoma into central Arkansas this morning. This frontal boundary is expected to shift southward some through the day today and will be the source for thunderstorm development across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas this afternoon. There are a few things that will make or break the severe weather threat today. The first is the location of the frontal boundary and how far it is able to sag south. Right now the SPC has a Slight Risk drawn in along and west of a line from Tyler, TX to Texarkana to De Queen, AR. In addition there is a Marginal Risk that extends from this line southeastward to Jacksonville, TX to Shreveport, LA to El Dorado, AR.
Latest short range model guidance suggests that storms will develop across the Oklahoma/Texas border by late this afternoon and continue into the evening hours. The one concern for us, is that the trends have been ever slowly shifting towards the west for the more robust storms. I would say the models are probably split down the middle, with half of them giving us some sort of thunderstorms in the Marginal to Slight Risk areas, while the other half actually keep our WFO fairly dry. So it will be interesting to see how things actually develop by this afternoon.
I am leaning towards the later if we are being honest with ourselves.
Temperatures will quickly climb into the 80s and lower 90s across the region today with increasing clouds through the day. For tonight, temperatures will range from around 60 to 70 degrees across the region. Friday will see temperatures once again in the 80s to lower 90s. Speaking of Friday, things should remain mostly dry for the region, with the exception of some low end PoPs across our far northwest zones. /33/
LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Aforementioned ridging across the southwest CONUS will weaken some as it pushes eastward across central Texas as we head into the weekend. This will increase the northwest flow influence some across our northern zones, which, as expected will bring some additional thunderstorm chances for our northern zones on Saturday. Ridging continues to push east, centering itself over our region by Sunday morning. This will help temperatures climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s across the region on Sunday and should help keep us mostly dry on Sunday as well.
Upper-level troughing will begin to develop by Sunday night across the central CONUS that will lead to some more widespread thunderstorm chances into Monday as an associated surface front moves slowly through the area. To be honest, we are setting up for a more unsettled weather pattern for next week that could bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms along with below normal temperatures. /33/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
High thin cirrus has exited our airspace to the east early this morning but we continue watching low clouds across SE TX in the form of MVFR ceilings trying to work their way northward towards our NE TX terminals but this cloud cover is struggling. Think it will at least move into the LFK terminal but this moisture should scatter our quickly today. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through the end of the TAF period outside of scattered convection today across our northwest airspace during the late afternoon and evening hours. Continued to hold onto VCTS at the TXK/TYR terminals only to account for this beginning at 23/00z and ending by midnight.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening across portions of our northern zones.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 71 91 74 / 0 10 10 0 MLU 91 68 89 72 / 0 10 10 0 DEQ 84 62 83 67 / 40 20 10 20 TXK 89 66 88 71 / 30 10 10 10 ELD 90 63 87 67 / 10 10 0 10 TYR 91 69 90 73 / 10 20 10 0 GGG 91 68 90 72 / 10 20 10 0 LFK 93 71 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 536 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Near zonal flow aloft this morning will give way to northwest flow today as ridging begins to build from the Desert Southwest into the Rockies. Meanwhile at the surface, a frontal boundary is currently located across northern Oklahoma into central Arkansas this morning. This frontal boundary is expected to shift southward some through the day today and will be the source for thunderstorm development across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas this afternoon. There are a few things that will make or break the severe weather threat today. The first is the location of the frontal boundary and how far it is able to sag south. Right now the SPC has a Slight Risk drawn in along and west of a line from Tyler, TX to Texarkana to De Queen, AR. In addition there is a Marginal Risk that extends from this line southeastward to Jacksonville, TX to Shreveport, LA to El Dorado, AR.
Latest short range model guidance suggests that storms will develop across the Oklahoma/Texas border by late this afternoon and continue into the evening hours. The one concern for us, is that the trends have been ever slowly shifting towards the west for the more robust storms. I would say the models are probably split down the middle, with half of them giving us some sort of thunderstorms in the Marginal to Slight Risk areas, while the other half actually keep our WFO fairly dry. So it will be interesting to see how things actually develop by this afternoon.
I am leaning towards the later if we are being honest with ourselves.
Temperatures will quickly climb into the 80s and lower 90s across the region today with increasing clouds through the day. For tonight, temperatures will range from around 60 to 70 degrees across the region. Friday will see temperatures once again in the 80s to lower 90s. Speaking of Friday, things should remain mostly dry for the region, with the exception of some low end PoPs across our far northwest zones. /33/
LONG TERM
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Aforementioned ridging across the southwest CONUS will weaken some as it pushes eastward across central Texas as we head into the weekend. This will increase the northwest flow influence some across our northern zones, which, as expected will bring some additional thunderstorm chances for our northern zones on Saturday. Ridging continues to push east, centering itself over our region by Sunday morning. This will help temperatures climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s across the region on Sunday and should help keep us mostly dry on Sunday as well.
Upper-level troughing will begin to develop by Sunday night across the central CONUS that will lead to some more widespread thunderstorm chances into Monday as an associated surface front moves slowly through the area. To be honest, we are setting up for a more unsettled weather pattern for next week that could bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms along with below normal temperatures. /33/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
High thin cirrus has exited our airspace to the east early this morning but we continue watching low clouds across SE TX in the form of MVFR ceilings trying to work their way northward towards our NE TX terminals but this cloud cover is struggling. Think it will at least move into the LFK terminal but this moisture should scatter our quickly today. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through the end of the TAF period outside of scattered convection today across our northwest airspace during the late afternoon and evening hours. Continued to hold onto VCTS at the TXK/TYR terminals only to account for this beginning at 23/00z and ending by midnight.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025
Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening across portions of our northern zones.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 71 91 74 / 0 10 10 0 MLU 91 68 89 72 / 0 10 10 0 DEQ 84 62 83 67 / 40 20 10 20 TXK 89 66 88 71 / 30 10 10 10 ELD 90 63 87 67 / 10 10 0 10 TYR 91 69 90 73 / 10 20 10 0 GGG 91 68 90 72 / 10 20 10 0 LFK 93 71 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KJXI
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KJXI
Wind History Graph: JXI
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas
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