Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 4:09 PM   Moonset 4:09 AM

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FXUS64 KSHV 200620 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 120 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The evening sfc analysis indicates that our cold front has drifted S into upper SE TX and Cntrl LA, after having been stationary for much of the day along the I-20 corridor of N LA into Lower E TX.
While this front may drift a tad farther S overnight, cool advection will remain minimal, with temps not expected to fall off as much as was previously advertised. Meanwhile, weak overrunning has commenced this evening atop the very shallow air mass in place (near or less than 1kft deep per the 00Z KSHV raob), with areas of -RA having developed over the last couple of hours over portions of NE TX into SW AR. Also beginning to see areas of -RA developing over NW TX/SW OK, near an area of PVA traversing atop weak convergence along an inverted H850 trough that extends NE into Srn and SE OK. As the PVA increases from the W overnight, should see an increase in convection late, especially over the Nrn third of the area as the H850 trough bridges E into Srn AR, with additional development occurring along an inverted H925 trough extending farther S into Lower E TX into N LA. Thus, the current pop forecast of high chance/likely still looks good late over these areas, becoming more widespread after daybreak Saturday once convergence in maximized between the H925-850 troughs.

As was the case last night/this morning, the NBM was much too cool with overnight temps within this very shallow air mass, with the warmer HRRR/NAM 2M temps doing a seemingly better job with temps. Thus, have trended the forecast more in line with these higher resolution progs, having raised min temps several degrees as a slightly tighter pressure gradient overnight will keep the winds up and the air more mixed, not allowing the air mass to completely saturate. Did not make any changes beyond tonight, as minimal warming is expected generally along/N of I-20 Saturday as periods of convection continue.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, IFR setting in with -DZ/BR. Few shwrs here and there next few hrs w/ increasing coverage and intensity toward daybreak. Embedded TS too 15-21Z as an upper disturbance in SW TX rides over the sfc front, now sinking toward I-10. A second stronger disturbance arrives overnight Saturday with more convection into early on Sun. Meanwhile, the NE winds extend up to 2kft with super wet SW flow by 3kft and throughout your climb, due W for FLs 30-50KT from FL200-FL350. FZL is 135 w/ mid level dry air. /24/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 65 46 72 / 90 20 0 0 MLU 49 63 43 70 / 90 40 0 0 DEQ 45 66 40 70 / 80 0 0 0 TXK 48 65 44 71 / 90 10 0 0 ELD 45 63 40 71 / 90 20 0 0 TYR 49 64 46 72 / 100 10 0 0 GGG 49 64 44 71 / 100 10 0 0 LFK 50 64 45 73 / 90 20 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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