Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kiawah Island, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
The current forecast appears on track early this evening. The updated forecast will feature less cloud cover and minor adjustments to hourly temp and dewpoint.

Tonight: An cold front is expected to be situated just upstream by the early evening hours and will steadily push through the area through the late night hours. Overall, the forecast is expected to be dry, though there are a few hi-res models that try to kick off a few light showers along the front. However, soundings are quite dry so we have kept the forecast dry as well. Gusty winds will diminish in the early evening as heating diminishes and mixing decreases. Winds should then turn more northwesterly late tonight, though weak. Skies should remain mostly clear, with just a mix of scattered mid and high level clouds late tonight. Lows are forecast to tall into the low 60s inland, with mid to upper 60s along the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Largely quiet conditions are expected to prevail heading into the holiday weekend as sfc high pressure strengthens. As alluded to in the previous discussion, will see a narrow band of mid- level vorticity graze the region Friday morning. While a few CAMs hint that isolated showers may occur, latest soundings would suggest that overall precipitation will be minimal as a decent amount of dry air resides in the lower levels. Thus, given the lack of forcing in place, have opted to remove any mentionable PoPs with the latest forecast package. Think the better chances will remain across central South Carolina.
Otherwise, the next best chance (30-50%) for seeing precipitation looks to occur Sunday afternoon as a warm front lifts northward across the region. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

In regard to temperatures, Friday and Saturday will be cooler in the wake of a reinforcing cold front with highs in the low to mid 80s, although areas closer to the Altamaha River will peak in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. With the aid of southerly flow and WAA, will see highs warm even further Sunday, with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The aforementioned warm front will lift north Sunday night into Monday night ahead of a developing system to the west. Rain chances will increase early next week as the warm front meanders near the area and the atmosphere becomes increasingly conducive for a more summer-like convective pattern. Then an associated cold front is progged to sweep across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing another potential round of convection.
Temperatures will return to near or slightly above normal early next week prior to the midweek FROPA.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions expected at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 0z Saturday. Gusty west winds should come to an end by 1Z this evening, light winds veering from the NW tonight following the passage of a cold front. A sea breeze may develop Friday afternoon, resulting in winds shifting from the WSW, gusting to 15 to 20 kts at KCHS and KJZI.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated showers and thunderstorms could impact the terminals Sunday.

MARINE
Tonight: Winds should peak in the evening, with up to 15-20 knots possible mainly in the Charleston County waters. Then by the late night hours winds will start to turn more northwesterly with speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range. Seas should average 2-3 feet, with up to 4 feet possible in the outer waters.

Friday through Monday: There are no major concerns through the period. Offshore winds will prevail Friday with northerly winds developing early Saturday as high pressure builds from the west.
South/southeasterly winds quickly return Sunday into Tuesday as a warm front lifts northward.

Rip Currents: Risks for rip currents in Savannah were borderline Moderate for Saturday. Given it's a holiday weekend, have opted to fully nudge the risk into the Moderate Category.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ045.
MARINE...None.