Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jacksonboro, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
Tonight: Latest radar trends indicate convection has come to an end across Southeast South Carolina and is slowly waning, but persisting across inland areas of Southeast Georgia where an outflow boundary has remained anchored and promotes shower/thunderstorm development just south of the Altamaha River with slow northeast storm motion allowing activity to drift across parts of Tattnall and Evans County. Activity will continue to slowly wane through late evening, before decreasing instability and modest 0-6 km bulk shear no longer support additional activity. Most areas are expected to become dry by midnight, then remain precip-free through the rest of the night, although there are some indications that a few showers could develop across northern areas late as a stalling front attempts to reach far northern locations around daybreak.

The main issue late night will be the potential for fog. Although mid-high clouds are expected for much of the night, sfc winds will become light/calm and condensation pressure deficits favorable for patchy to perhaps areas of fog within a few hours prior to daybreak. Greatest fog coverage should occur where heaviest rains have fallen earlier today, across inland Georgia near the Altamaha River and across far northern areas of Charleston and Berkeley Counties. Temps should remain mild overnight, generally dipping into the low-mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
We will have to see where the stalled front ends up being after the evening and overnight showers/storms, with 12Z. model consensus being a west to east oriented front from western Charleston county up into Allendale county and extending into northern Georgia. Showers and storms are expected to continue forming as low-level convergence along the front looks to provide enough lift, leading to chances (20-50% probabilities, highest inland) for scattered showers and storms continuing into the early afternoon hours. As the surface high pressure off to our north-northeast slowly slides northeastwards, some weak shortwaves begin to move in from the southwest, and with the remaining 1-1.25" PWATs, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue for the inland areas before decreasing into the evening hours as the sea-breeze pushes eastwards. CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg look to be available, so similar to today can't rule out pulse thunderstorms producing some isolated small hail and breezy winds, though severe thunderstorms look unlikely given even less upper level flow than we have today. Rainfall amounts aren't looking to be impressive, with amounts under a tenth of an inch for most.
Given the lack of upper level flow, can't rule out a slow moving thunderstorm bringing amounts closer to the half inch mark, though that will be very patchy and localized.

Given the increased cloud coverage and chances for storms, highs will be a few degrees cooler on Thursday with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 80s across inland areas, and upper 70s along the coast. For areas that see rainfall, some patchy fog is possible given the fresh influx of surface moisture. However, given the spatial uncertainties have left mention out of the current forecast. With the boundary layer decoupling as the inversion strengthens, overnight lows will drop to near the dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s, warmest along the coast.

For Friday, the surface high pressure slides southwards while remaining well off the coast, leading to south-southeasterly winds continuing. Aloft, we remain under weak west-southwesterly flow, with some weak shortwaves moving through. This, in combination with the sea-breeze may spark off another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with highest probabilities (~30%) inland and dropping towards the coast. Highs again reach up into the lower to mid 80s across the region. Again, areas that see rainfall have a chance for seeing patchy fog. Otherwise, overnight lows into Saturday upper 50s to mid 60s.

On Saturday a cold front will be approaching the area from the north, but before it gets here daytime highs will reach up into the mid 80s to lower 90s across inland regions, highest across eastern Georgia. Areas along the coast will get up into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Overnight into Sunday the aforementioned cold front will have moved through, with chances (30-50% probability) for scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves through. A surface high pressure quickly fills in behind the exiting cold front, bringing some cooler temperatures to the region. Areas across southeastern South Carolina may only reach into the upper 70s, while southeastern Georgia will reach up into the mid 80s. Another mild day expected for Monday as the surface high moves off the coast, with temperatures warming again on Tuesday as southerly surface flow returns.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through at least 06Z tonight. However, some guidance suggests the potential for fog to develop at all terminals late tonight. Given most precip has not directly impacted the terminals earlier today, fog could be less of a concern. For now, MVFR vsbys remain at all terminals between 09Z-14Z Thursday, but improvement should occur quickly after sunrise. VFR conditions are then expected through 00Z Friday. However, TEMPO groups for shower and/or thunderstorm activity could eventually be needed at all terminals Thursday afternoon. For now, probabilities remain too low to include in the 00Z Thursday TAF issuance.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Generally quite aviation conditions are expected through Sunday, while patchy overnight fog can't be ruled.
Monday into Tuesday may bring the return of MVFR or lower flight rules as chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms return.

MARINE
Tonight: High pressure centered across the western Atlantic along with a weak front approaching from the north-northwest but likely stalling before reaching the area prior to daybreak will result in fairly quiet conditions across local waters overnight.
In general, southeast/east winds will remain around 10-15 kt or less. Seas will range between 2-3 ft.

Thursday through Friday: Winds will remain out of the east-southeast through Friday right around 10 to 15 knots, with wave heights near the coast remaining at or below 2 feet, getting close to 4 feet 60nm out to sea. Can't rule out some isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms close to shore, but most activity looks like it should remain onshore.

Saturday through Monday: A cold front will be approaching throughout the day, swinging winds around to the southwest for the day. Cold front moves through overnight into Sunday, possibly bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms onto the near and offshore waters. Sunday will see winds out of the northeast strengthening throughout the morning, reaching up into the 15-20 knot range into the Monday. Waves of 3-4 feet are expected near shore, 5 feet 20 nm out, and 5-6 feet in the 20-60nm range offshore of Georgia.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.