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FXUS64 KBMX 282125 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 325 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2023

A broad upper-level trough axis is driving across the Northeastern US while low-level ridging is building eastward across the Lower MS River Valley. A surface ridge will become centered directly over the area by tomorrow. With dry west-northwesterly flow and the stabilizing ridge over the region, there will be plenty of sunshine today and tomorrow. Even with the sunshine, we stay within a pattern of cold air advection until late Wednesday, so it will continue to feel cool outside. Highs will range from the upper 40s north to mid 50s south today then 50s area-wide tomorrow. 15 to 20 mph wind gusts will make it feel a few degrees cooler this afternoon, especially in shaded areas. The winds will go calm overnight and, with clear skies, temperatures will drop sharply. It will be the coldest night of the week with an area-wide freeze, and lows in the 20s.

86/Martin

LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CST TUE NOV 28 2023

Clouds will be on the increase Thursday as a short wave trough moves out of the southwest United States. The rain will arrive into west Alabama Thursday evening and spread rapidly eastward.
The heavier rainfall will likely be along and north of I-20 Thursday night, north of the low level warm front. The air mass across Central Alabama will be very stable with surface dewpoints in the 30s and 40s, but a few isolated elevated thunderstorms possible. The short wave trof will lift rapidly northeast on Friday, and mid level forcing will decrease across Alabama. The heavier showers will likely shift into areas south of I-20, as the better forcing is more aligned with low level forcing. Broad southwest upper flow will prevail into the weekend with a stalled out low level boundary over Alabama. Several upper impulses will track along the frontal boundary, with periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms. It looks like the more significant rainfall amounts may occur on Saturday, mainly south of I-20. The final push of rain should occur on Sunday, mainly impacting the southeast counties. Rainfall amounts through the weekend should average between 1 and 3 inches, with local amounts near 4 inches in the southeast counties.

58/rose

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CST TUE NOV 28 2023

A region of high pressure is building eastward over the Lower MS River Valley. The airmass aloft remains very dry, and SKC is expected to remain through this TAF period with no visibility restrictions. Sfc winds are breezy this afternoon with a northerly heading and occasional gusts of 15 to 20 kts, but winds will go calm by ~03Z as the surface ridge centers over the state.

86/Martin

FIRE WEATHER

Dry conditions expected through Thursday afternoon. Max RH values tonight 75-85% and minimum RH values Wednesday afternoon 25-35%.
Near calm winds tonight becoming southwest 3-5 mph on Wednesday.
Chances for showers will increase Thursday night with areawide wetting rains Thursday night through the weekend.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 20 57 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 23 57 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 26 57 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 27 59 33 60 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 27 58 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 28 55 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 28 57 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 29 58 30 61 / 0 0 0 0

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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