Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Billingsley, AL
July 3, 2024 12:29 AM CDT (05:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:42 AM Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:15 AM Moonset 6:19 PM |
Area Discussion for - Birmingham, AL
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KBMX 030101 AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 801 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 729 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Quasi-stationary front was located along the Alabama Florida state line. An inverted trough was located along the Mississippi Alabama state line. The easterly flow ushered in low level moisture and it now covers the entire area. Surface dew points were mainly in the 70s this afternoon. A few showers were near this trough and added a slight chance of rain to the western areas this evening. Otherwise, rain chances go away quickly by 10 pm.
With the low level moisture values rather high, lift around sunrise will produce low clouds much like this morning. Expecting these clouds areawide and the coverage will slightly decrease by noon. Will keep lows from 70 to 80 degrees. A Heat Advisory was issued for a large part of Central Alabama on Wednesday. High temperatures in the middle 90s combined with dew points in the 70s will produce heat indices of 105 to 109 degrees.
75
Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024
The strong, mid-level ridge is centered over the Lower MS River Valley while, at the surface, high pressure is focused along the East Coast extending south into the Mid-Atlantic region. There's north-northeasterly flow aloft and east-southeasterly flow in the lower levels. The low-level flow is providing a moist, humid airmass which is resulting in mid 70s dewpoints, and a cu field over much of the area. Temperatures have remained in the 80s across the east, but will warm into the 90s in the west where heat indices will approach 105F this afternoon and again tomorrow as the moist airmass will still be in place. There's weak surface convergence associated with the stalled front to our south, and showers have developed over southern Georgia. This activity could slowly drift into southeast Alabama this afternoon, and may reach southeastern portions of the forecast area. Muggy conditions are expected overnight with lows in the mid 70s. Rain chances look higher tomorrow as low-level moisture continues to advect inland through the southerly flow, but the greatest likelihood of seeing a shower or storm will be across the southern half of the area.
Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds.
86/Martin
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Looking at the latest data, forecast thinking is in line with the previous forecast, which is detailed below:
89^GSatterwhite
Previous long-term discussion: (Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Key messages:
- Heat indices at or above 105 degrees are expected across much of Central Alabama on Independence Day, along with scattered afternoon showers and storms. Make sure to stay hydrated and be prepared to move indoors if storms approach your outdoor activities.
- A transition to a wetter pattern will take place Friday through the weekend, with an eventual decrease in heat indices depending on the coverage of showers and storms each day.
Strong subtropical ridging initially over Central Alabama will gradually weaken and move eastward to the East Coast through the period, in response to a deepening trough over the north-central CONUS resulting in a weakness in the ridge developing in the south-central CONUS. Ridging remains in place on Independence Day, however, but moisture will increase enough for scattered afternoon showers and storms across all of Central Alabama. Some isolated showers and storms may linger into the evening, diminishing after sunset. Heat indices outside of convection should be at or above 105 across much of Central Alabama. On Friday a seasonally strong shortwave will be moving through the Midwest while a cold front sinks southeastward into the Mid-South. The southern fringe of the westerlies associated with the trough will move into the northern half of Central Alabama. In response to these features showers and storms should increase in coverage especially across the northern half of Central Alabama. Dew points will remain high but temperatures will be dependent on how quickly storms develop/move into the area, which will determine where heat indices reach 105 degrees.
A pattern change will be in place by this weekend into early next week with southwest flow aloft ahead of troughing over the Central CONUS. A frontal boundary will remained stalled across the area with above average rain chances along and southeast of it. This should provide some relief from the higher heat indices, though they may still reach 105 in some of the southern counties depending on convection. Meanwhile Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it reaches the southwestern Gulf on Saturday. There is quite a bit of ensemble spread regarding whether it will continue moving westward into Mexico, or get pulled northward by the trough into the northwestern Gulf. If the further east solutions happen to verify, it's plausible that some tropical moisture could wrap around the ridge towards us. Regardless, a wetter and less oppressive pattern looks to be setting up by next week.
32/Davis
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Minimal convection this evening and will not mention any rain chances overnight. With the low level moisture running high and some lift available, expect redevelopment of the low clouds around sunrise. Mentioned MVFR prevailing with a few locations tempo IFR for a few hours. The typical thinning and lifting of the cloud bases expected by 16-17z. There will be enough moisture and instability to mention PROB30 coverage of thunderstorms in the afternoon at most sites. Light east to southeast winds overnight and increasing to 5-10kts on Wednesday.
75
FIRE WEATHER
Hot and humid conditions are expected over the coming days.
Isolated showers and storms are possible today near and south of the Interstate 85 corridor. Scattered showers and storms are possible each afternoon and evening heading into the weekend. No issues from RHs. 20-foot winds will average less than 10 mph, from the southeast to southwest.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 72 95 72 94 / 10 20 10 40 Anniston 74 93 75 94 / 10 30 10 40 Birmingham 76 95 76 95 / 10 30 10 40 Tuscaloosa 77 95 76 96 / 10 30 10 40 Calera 76 94 76 93 / 10 30 10 40 Auburn 75 90 75 91 / 10 50 20 50 Montgomery 75 93 76 95 / 20 60 20 50 Troy 73 92 73 94 / 20 70 20 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Barbour-Blount-Bullock-Coosa-Elmore-Jefferson-Macon- Marion-Montgomery-Pike-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker-Winston.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar- Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 801 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 729 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Quasi-stationary front was located along the Alabama Florida state line. An inverted trough was located along the Mississippi Alabama state line. The easterly flow ushered in low level moisture and it now covers the entire area. Surface dew points were mainly in the 70s this afternoon. A few showers were near this trough and added a slight chance of rain to the western areas this evening. Otherwise, rain chances go away quickly by 10 pm.
With the low level moisture values rather high, lift around sunrise will produce low clouds much like this morning. Expecting these clouds areawide and the coverage will slightly decrease by noon. Will keep lows from 70 to 80 degrees. A Heat Advisory was issued for a large part of Central Alabama on Wednesday. High temperatures in the middle 90s combined with dew points in the 70s will produce heat indices of 105 to 109 degrees.
75
Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024
The strong, mid-level ridge is centered over the Lower MS River Valley while, at the surface, high pressure is focused along the East Coast extending south into the Mid-Atlantic region. There's north-northeasterly flow aloft and east-southeasterly flow in the lower levels. The low-level flow is providing a moist, humid airmass which is resulting in mid 70s dewpoints, and a cu field over much of the area. Temperatures have remained in the 80s across the east, but will warm into the 90s in the west where heat indices will approach 105F this afternoon and again tomorrow as the moist airmass will still be in place. There's weak surface convergence associated with the stalled front to our south, and showers have developed over southern Georgia. This activity could slowly drift into southeast Alabama this afternoon, and may reach southeastern portions of the forecast area. Muggy conditions are expected overnight with lows in the mid 70s. Rain chances look higher tomorrow as low-level moisture continues to advect inland through the southerly flow, but the greatest likelihood of seeing a shower or storm will be across the southern half of the area.
Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds.
86/Martin
LONG TERM
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Looking at the latest data, forecast thinking is in line with the previous forecast, which is detailed below:
89^GSatterwhite
Previous long-term discussion: (Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Key messages:
- Heat indices at or above 105 degrees are expected across much of Central Alabama on Independence Day, along with scattered afternoon showers and storms. Make sure to stay hydrated and be prepared to move indoors if storms approach your outdoor activities.
- A transition to a wetter pattern will take place Friday through the weekend, with an eventual decrease in heat indices depending on the coverage of showers and storms each day.
Strong subtropical ridging initially over Central Alabama will gradually weaken and move eastward to the East Coast through the period, in response to a deepening trough over the north-central CONUS resulting in a weakness in the ridge developing in the south-central CONUS. Ridging remains in place on Independence Day, however, but moisture will increase enough for scattered afternoon showers and storms across all of Central Alabama. Some isolated showers and storms may linger into the evening, diminishing after sunset. Heat indices outside of convection should be at or above 105 across much of Central Alabama. On Friday a seasonally strong shortwave will be moving through the Midwest while a cold front sinks southeastward into the Mid-South. The southern fringe of the westerlies associated with the trough will move into the northern half of Central Alabama. In response to these features showers and storms should increase in coverage especially across the northern half of Central Alabama. Dew points will remain high but temperatures will be dependent on how quickly storms develop/move into the area, which will determine where heat indices reach 105 degrees.
A pattern change will be in place by this weekend into early next week with southwest flow aloft ahead of troughing over the Central CONUS. A frontal boundary will remained stalled across the area with above average rain chances along and southeast of it. This should provide some relief from the higher heat indices, though they may still reach 105 in some of the southern counties depending on convection. Meanwhile Hurricane Beryl is forecast by NHC to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it reaches the southwestern Gulf on Saturday. There is quite a bit of ensemble spread regarding whether it will continue moving westward into Mexico, or get pulled northward by the trough into the northwestern Gulf. If the further east solutions happen to verify, it's plausible that some tropical moisture could wrap around the ridge towards us. Regardless, a wetter and less oppressive pattern looks to be setting up by next week.
32/Davis
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2024
Minimal convection this evening and will not mention any rain chances overnight. With the low level moisture running high and some lift available, expect redevelopment of the low clouds around sunrise. Mentioned MVFR prevailing with a few locations tempo IFR for a few hours. The typical thinning and lifting of the cloud bases expected by 16-17z. There will be enough moisture and instability to mention PROB30 coverage of thunderstorms in the afternoon at most sites. Light east to southeast winds overnight and increasing to 5-10kts on Wednesday.
75
FIRE WEATHER
Hot and humid conditions are expected over the coming days.
Isolated showers and storms are possible today near and south of the Interstate 85 corridor. Scattered showers and storms are possible each afternoon and evening heading into the weekend. No issues from RHs. 20-foot winds will average less than 10 mph, from the southeast to southwest.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 72 95 72 94 / 10 20 10 40 Anniston 74 93 75 94 / 10 30 10 40 Birmingham 76 95 76 95 / 10 30 10 40 Tuscaloosa 77 95 76 96 / 10 30 10 40 Calera 76 94 76 93 / 10 30 10 40 Auburn 75 90 75 91 / 10 50 20 50 Montgomery 75 93 76 95 / 20 60 20 50 Troy 73 92 73 94 / 20 70 20 50
BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Barbour-Blount-Bullock-Coosa-Elmore-Jefferson-Macon- Marion-Montgomery-Pike-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Walker-Winston.
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Wednesday for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Chilton-Dallas-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar- Lowndes-Marengo-Perry-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMXF
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMXF
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMXF
Wind History graph: MXF
(wind in knots)
East Alabama
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE