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FXUS64 KFWD 051100 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 500 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: No changes necessary from the earlier discussion below. Forecast remains on track.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/

Strong cyclonic flow aloft today will help to drive another cold front down through North and Central Texas in the afternoon. Cold advection won't be overly strong with plentiful sunshine and highs just above seasonal normals well into the 60s. Another frosty and chilly night is in store tonight as a broad surface ridge traverses eastward across the Central and Southern Plains.
Predominately clear skies and a dry airmass will once again allow lows to fall well into the 30s, outside of around 40 degrees within the urban heat island of the immediate DFW Metroplex.

Cyclonic flow aloft begins dampening with a shortwave ridge building over the area on Wednesday, thanks in large part to a developing storm system across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest region. As the surface ridge continues exiting east away from the area, breezy south winds will return to especially western parts of North and Central Texas. Still, low level advection will remain mostly neutral with highs in the 60s once again, though a reading around 70 degrees can be expected across the higher terrain of the Big Country Wednesday afternoon.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/Issued 356 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023/ /Thursday Through Early Next Week/

Unseasonably mild temperatures will end the workweek, a warming trend culminating on Friday before the next cold front arrives.
Our next rain chances will accompany the front, with the potential for severe storms. Placid weather will begin the forthcoming week with more seasonal temperatures.

A progressive pattern will carry upper ridging to our east by Thursday morning. But as an approaching upper trough spits out a jet streak, lee troughing will deepen, and a period a low-level warm advection will ensue. Breezy south winds will prevail both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures and cloud cover will both be on the increase, the clouds more prevalent east of the I-35 corridor.
Across the Big Country, where sunshine will be the most abundant on Friday, high temperatures may be more than 20 degrees above normal. Even in East Texas, where clouds may linger much of the day, the mercury should still top 70F Friday afternoon.

While there is still some disparity among extended guidance with the evolution of the upper trough, solutions continue to favor an equatorward dig east of the Rockies. This will result in a period of forcing for ascent with considerable shear, potentially coincident with the frontal forcing. With December systems, shear is typically in abundance while instability is the limiting reactant. In this case, an unseasonably warm boundary layer will have surface dew points in the mid 60s across East Texas, which isn't shabby for the cold season. It still appears the richer moisture (and perhaps better timing) will be to our east. The mesoscale features will come into better focus as the event approaches, but suffice to say, those within our East and Northeast Texas zones should prepare for the potential for severe storms Friday night into Saturday.

Where the frontal timing is early in the day Saturday, temperatures may steadily fall throughout the daylight hours.
While not especially intense cold advection for December, the cP air that surges into our region this weekend will be in stark contrast to Friday's warmth. Sunday and Monday will both begin in the 30s regionwide, but the return of south winds on Monday will push daytime temperatures back above normal.

25

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12z TAFs/

VFR through Wednesday morning. Near calm winds will gradually become westerly 4-7 kts, before shift northerly 7-10 kts by/after 18z.

Winds become light n' variable tonight, before surface ridge shifts east of the region with southerly winds less than 10 kts return by midday Wednesday.

05/Marty


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 40 64 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 68 37 65 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 62 35 59 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 65 34 63 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 65 35 62 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 66 39 63 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 65 35 62 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 68 38 64 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 68 37 65 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 67 37 66 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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