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FXUS64 KFWD 022341 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Wednesday/

North and Central Texas will remain under the influence from an upper ridge through midweek. Therefore, expect hot and mostly sunny conditions to prevail through Wednesday and into the 4th of July holiday. Warm overnight temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s will be approaching record high minimum temperatures again tonight at several locations, including DFW. Temperatures will peak in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across most of the region Wednesday afternoon with afternoon heat indices in the 103-108 degree range. A Heat Advisory has been extended through Wednesday evening for the majority of our forecast area, minus our southwestern zones where daytime mixing will drop dewpoints into the low 60s.

Subsident air associated with the upper ridge will keep the area rain-free through Wednesday. However, a few showers and thunderstorms on the sea breeze may approach our Brazos Valley counties late Wednesday afternoon before dissipating (less than 15% chance).

Langfeld

LONG TERM
/Issued 309 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024/ /Independence Day Through Next Week/

The mid-level ridge responsible for our extended period of above normal temperatures will steadily deamplify the remainder of the week, eventually repositioning itself over the Southeast U.S. The final day of our current bout of heat will be Independence Day when a Central Plains storm system will allow a rare mid-summer cold front to invade the Southern Plains. This will also mark a pattern shift that will maintain milder temperatures and above normal precipitation chances through the second week of July.

The 4th of July will be indistinguishable from other recent hot days with many locations reaching the century mark. Unseasonably rich moisture will push heat index values into the 105 to 110 range across much of the region. Despite a steady (albeit light)
south wind, the risk of heat-related illness will be high, particularly for those engaging in outdoor activities who are not accustomed to spending much time exposed to this level of heat and humidity. Take all necessary precautions to avoid heat stress, including wearing light-colored/loose-fitting clothing, drinking plenty of water, and taking frequent breaks in the shade or in air-conditioned areas. Rain and storms are not expected to impact holiday festivities with afternoon/evening activity confined to two areas: (1) along the front from West Texas into Oklahoma and (2) sea breeze convection to our southeast. However, there is a low chance that the frontal activity could enter our northwest before midnight Thursday night.

Without the ridge to prevent its forward progress, the cold front will move deep into North Texas on Friday. Showers and storms will accompany its passage, but reduced instability and seasonally weak shear should preclude any severe weather. Even outside of rain- cooled areas, increased cloud cover in the postfrontal air will result in the mildest daytime temperatures since before the summer solstice. The exception will be much of Central and East Texas, which may remain in the sunny pre-frontal sector during the afternoon hours. This could increase the instability enough to allow a few strong storms if the boundary mechanics are adequate.

The front will likely stall or retreat on Saturday. Even if the post-frontal air never reaches Central Texas, rain chances and increased cloud cover should finally allow the entire region to enjoy below normal daytime temperatures. Sunshine and southerly winds will return early next week with a corresponding rise in temperature, but the ridge's absence will cap afternoon highs in the mid 90s. The lack of inhibition will also maintain daily rain chances.

Throughout next week, the Lone Star State will remain beneath a col, separating the Southeast ridge from a similar bubble over the Desert Southwest. There is an outside chance that this could encourage Beryl to approach. The GFS is the most bullish with this scenario, but a plurality of extended solutions favors persistence. We will continue to assess this with subsequent forecasts, but this afternoon's package will include a new Day 7 (Tuesday next week) that will maintain seasonal temperatures and above normal precipitation chances.

25

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00z TAFs/

VFR conditions and south winds generally between 6-12 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals.

Langfeld

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 101 82 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 20 Waco 79 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 5 Paris 79 99 79 97 76 / 0 5 0 0 30 Denton 81 101 80 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 20 McKinney 81 100 80 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 20 Dallas 82 101 82 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 20 Terrell 80 99 79 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 81 98 80 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 5 Temple 78 98 78 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 78 100 78 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 20

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>093-100>104- 115>120-131>134-144>147-158>162-174-175.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ094- 095-105>107-121>123-135-148.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ094-095-105>107- 121>123-135-148.

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