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FXUS64 KFWD 301158 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

New Aviation, Short Term

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ Update: Only minor edits were made to the forecast grids this morning. Low clouds currently overspread all of North and Central Texas with areas of drizzle/mist falling beneath this cloud deck. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop primarily along/east of I-35 this morning through this afternoon.
The 12Z FWD sounding shows two stout capping inversions overhead (at ~850mb and ~700mb) with steeper mid-level lapse rates above reinforcing the idea that convection across North Texas will likely remain elevated through the day and pose primarily a lightning and isolated hail risk. Further south into the Brazos Valley, surface dewpoints are beginning a steady climb into the upper 50s and 60s. We will continue to monitor the degree of moisture return and heating that occurs across our southern zones today that will ultimately determine the severe threat across the Brazos Valley. If storms can become surface-based and utilize the impressive low-level shear available, then a couple severe thunderstorms capable of producing all modes of severe weather will be possible across the Brazos Valley later this morning through this afternoon.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion: /Through Thursday Night/

Key Message: A rather conditional set-up for a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of all hazard modes is expected late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon across portions of eastern Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. Further north into portions of North Texas, the environment will support a few stronger storm cells capable of producing marginally severe hail through Thursday evening. Main time frame of concern is 11AM-6PM Thursday.

Low clouds will continue to surge northward through the overnight as strong southerly low-level flow continues to transport rich Gulf moisture over the region ahead of a rapidly-progressing mid- level vorticity maxima currently positioned over southwest Arizona. Visibilities will start to reduce across North and Central Texas after 2-3 AM as mist/drizzle develops beneath the 5-6 kft deep cloud deck. Scattered warm-advection driven rain showers, and possibly a few elevated thunderstorms, are also expected to develop later tonight into Thursday morning primarily east of the I-35 corridor.

Synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will increase during the day over the region as the aforementioned trough axis slides over the Texas Panhandle and a 45-50 kt low-level jet shifts over the 1.3"-1.6" PWAT airmass located generally along/east of the I-35 corridor. This will lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage primarily along/east of the I-35 corridor late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. Impressive wind fields noted by ~50-60 kts effective bulk shear and ~200-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH would support supercellular storm structures capable of producing all modes of severe weather if there is sufficient available surface-based instability. Widespread cloud cover and morning precipitation may inhibit destabilization and model soundings continue to suggest rather unimpressive low-level lapse rates (nearly moist-adiabatic) across the region. This would suggest that thunderstorms may struggle to become surface-based. If moisture return increases and stronger heating occurs during the day, the potential for a couple surface-based severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind gusts will increase Thursday afternoon generally south of the Highway 84 corridor in our Brazos Valley counties. Although the best potential for surface-based convection looks to remain just south of our CWA further into Southeast Texas where greater instability and steeper low-level lapse rates look to reside. Further north into portions of North Texas, there will be sufficient deep-layer wind shear and elevated instability for a few stronger cells to produce up to 1" hail through Thursday evening.

Precipitation will begin to exit to our east and cloud cover will begin diminishing after 6-7PM Thursday evening as the ascent associated with the mid-level shortwave shifts out of our forecast area and drier air pushes in from the west with the arrival of a cold front. A cooler airmass will begin to filter over North and Central Texas Thursday night with overnight lows in the 40s across much of the area, dropping into the upper 30s northwest of the DFW Metroplex.

Langfeld

LONG TERM
/Issued 323 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ Friday through Wednesday/

Drier and cooler air will filter into North and Central Texas Friday behind a cold front. The front should reach the Texas Gulf Coast by sunrise Friday and remain stalled in that vicinity through much of the weekend. Weak cold air advection will be offset partially by daytime sun, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s for most of the forecast area. The dry air will remain in place Friday night but high clouds will slow cooling a bit. Temperatures will fall into the 40s in most locations by early Saturday morning, except for the the northern zones where upper 30s will be more common.

A series of shortwave troughs will rotate through the region Saturday through Sunday, but with low level moisture scoured out, they will come through virtually unnoticed. One thing that will be noticed will be a nice warmup both Saturday and Sunday with plenty of sun and some compressional warming supplied by a southwest to west wind. Since the western zones will miss out on most of the precipitation today, there will be a slight uptick in the wildfire potential Sunday due to increasing west winds, relative humidity less than 30 percent, and above normal temperatures.

The first half of next week will be rain-free and quiet with dry northwest flow aloft and only a very slow return of Gulf moisture.
Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will be near seasonal normals with highs in the 60s and lows from the mid 30s to the lower 40s.

It does look like some low rain chances may return to portions of North and Central Texas by the end of next week.

79

AVIATION
/NEW/ /12Z TAFs/

Widespread MVFR and IFR cigs will prevail overhead all the terminals through this evening. LIFR cigs will be possible for a few hours later this morning into this afternoon. Areas of drizzle/mist are currently falling beneath this low cloud deck and will lead to reduced visibilities at the TAF sites through much of this morning and this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along/east of the I-35 corridor through the day with the bulk of the activity likely remaining east of the terminals. However, the best window for TS impacts at the terminals still looks to fall in 15Z-21Z time frame later today.

Precipitation will move east of the TAF sites later this evening with cigs starting to improve generally after ~01Z Friday. A cold front will push through North and Central Texas later tonight, shifting southerly winds more westerly after ~05Z-06Z.

Langfeld


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 45 61 43 69 / 80 10 0 0 5 Waco 68 48 63 43 70 / 80 5 0 0 5 Paris 60 47 59 39 63 / 90 80 0 0 5 Denton 63 40 60 39 69 / 80 10 0 0 5 McKinney 62 43 59 40 67 / 90 30 0 0 5 Dallas 64 45 60 43 69 / 80 20 0 0 5 Terrell 64 47 59 41 67 / 90 40 0 0 5 Corsicana 66 51 63 46 69 / 90 30 5 0 10 Temple 70 47 66 43 71 / 70 5 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 68 41 63 42 71 / 60 0 0 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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