Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grand Prairie, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /This Evening through Saturday Morning/

Isolated elevated showers with the occasional lightning strike will continue to develop this evening along and east of a dryline/cold front draped near a Hugo-Burleson-Llano line. The 00Z FWD sounding shows cloud bases at a height of ~550mb (around 15 kft), with a substantial dry layer from this height down to the surface. Due to this stout dry layer, the majority of precipitation will continue to evaporate before it reaches the surface. There is increased 0-1km MLCAPE between 1500-2500 and mid-level lapse rates around 7.5-8 C/km near and east of the boundary, which should aid in continued convective development through the evening hours. This activity has remained quite tame so far, but the environment could still produce a stronger storm or two. If a storm were to become more robust, hail and wind gusts would be the main threats. Convective coverage will wane with the loss of daytime heating, eventually coming to an end just prior to midnight as the dry line/front begins to recede back into our west and northwestern counties tonight. Overnight into Friday morning, expect another warm start to the day, with morning low temperatures only dropping into the mid 60s west of the boundary to the mid 70s east. A deck of low-level stratus is expected to move overtop the region by the early morning hours, but will gradually lift and scatter out during the day on Friday.

Another minor disturbance will round the base of the upper low well to our north, pushing the dryline/front east over the day Friday. Around the time of peak heating, we'll observe additional storm development along the dryline, which looks to be located near or just east of the I-35 corridor late tomorrow afternoon.
0-6km flow is a bit more orthogonal to the boundary, which would promote an initial discrete mode, but will become more clustered as they move off of the boundary. Latest CAM guidance forecast soundings have abundant instability (between 3500-4000 MLCAPE), lapse rates ~8 C/km, and deep layer shear ~50 kts. This kind of environment would easily allow a storm to become severe, with a main threat of large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is low at this time as 0-1 km SRH and shear are underwhelming.
Once again, coverage will wane over the evening hours, eventually coming to an end around midnight as the boundary slides back west.

With North and Central Texas remaining within the warm and moist sector as we head into the weekend, expect another warm morning on Saturday with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Prater

LONG TERM
/Issued 1242 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025/ /Friday Night into Next Week/

Any leftover activity from Friday evening will quickly weaken and dissipate with the loss of daytime heating. A warm and humid airmass will be left behind in their wake, which will help to contribute to the next round of thunderstorm activity on Saturday.
A shortwave trough will quickly eject out of the Desert Southwest amid zonal flow aloft, racing toward the Central Plains through Saturday afternoon and evening. The atmosphere will be quite destabilized with surface based CAPE values upwards of 4,000-4,500 J/kg with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Strong capping is expected initially on Saturday morning, but this will likely erode quickly as forcing for ascent increases with the shortwave passing by to our north. The dry line will also be in place, serving as an additional focus for thunderstorm development through the early to late afternoon hours on Saturday. The severe threat appears to be greatest through this timeframe, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. There is a low but non-zero tornado threat as well which will be worth watching.
Once again, all activity will wind down through the late evening and overnight as the shortwave departs from the region. The best placement for the activity on Saturday will be along and east of the I-35 corridor and upwards toward the Red River. A similar pattern will continue through Sunday with another round of severe weather expected across portions of North and Central Texas. The main threats once again will be large hail and damaging winds, with a low tornado threat too. Storm mode through the weekend will favor discrete supercells to small clusters which will attempt to move off of the dry line each afternoon and evening. Stay weather aware this weekend!

A period of active weather appears to continue through the start of next week with a couple more days of dry line activity possible on both Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening. There is a bit more uncertainty regarding this activity but the severe weather threat looks to continue for at least a couple more days. Above normal temperatures will also continue with highs in the 80s and 90s through much of next week and even into next weekend.

Reeves

AVIATION
/NEW/ /00Z TAFs/

A surface boundary remains draped across North and Central Texas this evening. The boundary currently bisects D10, but remains just west of ACT. To the east of this boundary, SE winds prevail, but northerly winds prevail to the west. Scattered showers with an occasional lightning strike will continue to develop near the boundary this evening, but coverage will remain spotty and mainly east of the airports.

The boundary will linger across D10 tonight, but will eventually begin to slide back to the west and put all D10 airports back in SE-S flow by 06-07Z. Another nocturnal surge in MVFR stratus will advance northward overnight, moving atop ACT at 09Z and D10 closer to 12Z. There also is a low chance that cigs could go IFR at ACT, but this probability is currently too low to include in the TAF. The cigs will gradually lift and scatter out, with VFR returning around 16Z.

The boundary will once again slide east through D10 tomorrow afternoon, putting a majority of airports into north flow through the rest of the time period. Additional storm development is possible along the boundary late in the afternoon, but exact location of initial storms remains a bit uncertain (it could be within D10 or just to the east), and is dependent on the location of the surface boundary. For now, have introduced a VCTS between 23-01Z at the eastern 3 D10 sites and ACT, but this will need to be looked at further.

Prater

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 92 72 91 72 / 5 20 20 40 40 Waco 75 93 74 93 72 / 10 20 30 30 20 Paris 71 88 67 88 69 / 20 30 30 40 50 Denton 67 92 67 91 69 / 5 20 10 40 40 McKinney 71 91 70 89 69 / 10 20 20 40 40 Dallas 73 93 72 91 72 / 5 20 20 40 40 Terrell 73 90 71 89 70 / 10 30 30 40 40 Corsicana 76 92 75 91 73 / 10 30 30 30 30 Temple 73 96 73 95 72 / 5 20 30 30 20 Mineral Wells 66 93 67 93 69 / 5 10 5 40 30

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.