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Marine Weather and Tides Meggett, SC Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:09AM

Sunset 5:15PM

Tuesday December 10, 2019 5:12 AM EST (10:12 UTC)

Moonrise 4:21PM

Moonset 5:28AM

Illumination 98%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Meggett, SC

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Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 100906 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 406 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

SYNOPSIS. Unseasonably warm conditions will prevail ahead of a cold front today. The cold front will push through the region tonight, with strong high pressure to build over the area Wednesday through Thursday. A low pressure system will impact the area late week, followed by a return to high pressure over the weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Pre-dawn: The set up for fog is unlike yesterday morning, and in general it isn't looking anywhere near as favorable as 24 hours ago. There is too much mixing, quite a bit of cirrus clouds, and most places won't reach their cross-over temps. But for the sake of consistency with the previous forecasts, we'll show patchy dense fog in the forecast, mainly near and west of a line from Walterboro to Springfield and Ludowici. Sea fog currently doesn't look to be a significant concern since the conditions for it's formation are limited at this time.

We'll begin the day with temps significantly warmer than this time yesterday, with just about everywhere at 60F or greater. This is some 15-20F above climo, and is an indication that we're in store for an unseasonably warm December day.

Today: In the big picture we find a broad mid and upper trough that covers southern Canada into the central and southern Plains of the United States, while a strong H5 5900 meter anticyclone is centered the northwest Bahamas. Our area lies within a deep southwest flow between these two large scale features. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front that is aligned near the Appalachians as we begin the day, will be just upstream of our northwest tier by 00Z. Since the front is still outside the area through the day, we won't experience anything more than a few showers from Allendale County to Candler County after 4 or 5 pm.

The main weather story for today will be the unusually warm conditions in place ahead of the cold front. H85 temps climb to 13 or 14C, while H5 heights are as great as 5840-5850 meters. Both of these values are more than the 90th percentile for this time of year. Combined with the warm start, max temps will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s away from the immediate shoreline. These values will be near records for both the date and even for the warmest in the entire month of December (See CLIMATE section below). At the immediate coast, expect the marine influence to produce much cooler temperatures, and sea fog will lurking over or just offshore of the barrier islands.

Tonight: The cold front will be rather slow in passing through as it becomes oriented to the southwest flow aloft and continues to be impeded by deep ridging from Bermuda to Cuba. Plus the better dynamics will remain off to the north and northwest and the band of deep moisture that is along and behind the cold front shrinks with time. The front itself reaches near the coast by 04-06Z and then pushes into the ocean thereafter. Since the front is an ana-type cold front, the associated showers will occur mainly behind the front, with 40-50% PoP maintained in the forecast. While surface-based CAPE and instability is over the ocean, there is a little bit of elevated instability. Thus we can't rule out a little thunder and lightning in a few spots.

Sea fog will try to expand onshore prior to midnight, but as winds turn offshore late it would push any fog back offshore.

Warm conditions out ahead of the front will hold temps in the 60s through much of the night, but cold advection strengthens significantly late and continues into Wednesday morning. This results in actual lows that occur during the mid morning hours on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Strong high pressure will build in from the west on Wednesday behind a departing cold front. Models have backed off on precipitation coverage with drier air moving in, so besides a few showers in the morning, the remainder of the day should be mostly dry. Temperatures really won't move too much throughout the day with ongoing cold advection and an abundance of cloud cover. It will be several degrees cooler than previous days. Lows Wednesday night will be near normal.

High pressure will become wedged down the east side of the Appalachians on Thursday, as a coastal trough develops offshore. A tight pressure gradient between these two features will result in gusty northeast winds, primarily along the coast where gusts around 30 mph will be common. Otherwise, increasing isentropic ascent could support a couple showers, but a good bit of dry air in the mid and upper levels should keep coverage fairly limited through the daytime hours. Forecast continues to feature 20-30% rain chances in the afternoon. Another cool day in the wedge regime with highs topping out in the mid 50s.

High pressure will weaken Thursday night into Friday as low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico and passes over or near the area. There are still inconsistencies between models regarding timing and the exact track of the low, but regardless, it appears to be a wet day as precipitable water values surge to near 1.5 inches and coincides with favorable large scale forcing from upper divergence and vort energy. Rain chances have been increased to around 70% and will likely need to be increased again in future forecast packages assuming trends hold. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. Given uncertainty in track of the low, temperature forecast is a bit tricky. Current forecast shows highs ranging from the mid 50s inland to low 60s at the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Models are in decent agreement through the long term period. Low pressure and associated rainfall is expected to be exiting the area Friday night into Saturday. High pressure will return in its wake, with dry conditions expected for the latter half of the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will generally be above normal.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Conditions are not as favorable for the widespread fog and stratus of yesterday morning, with stronger mixing to occur, and condensation pressure deficits that are quite a bit higher. There certainly could be a period of flight restrictions during the early and middle part of this upcoming morning, especially at KSAV. But it looks like VFR will prevail the bulk of the day into early tonight, with gusty S-SW winds to result from the sea breeze. We will address any impacts from showers with tonight's cold front in later TAF issuances.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in ceilings could linger into Wednesday. Flight restrictions are then likely Thursday night through Friday as a low pressure system impacts the area. VFR is expected to return on Saturday.

MARINE. Today: The west-northwest periphery of extensive Atlantic high pressure will continue to hold back the next cold front from getting here . at least for the time being. S and SW winds will average 10 to 15 kt, with some higher gusts, while seas will be as large as 3 to 5 ft.

Tonight: It takes until after midnight before the front starts reaching the local waters, but it is past the entire marine area before daybreak Wednesday. S and SW winds of 10 to 15 kt ahead of the front will clock around to the W and drop several knots for a few hours as the isobar pattern becomes "baggy overnight. Winds then shift to the NW and increase a good 5 to 10 kt begins the front late. Seas will hold in the range of 3 to 5 ft. Showers and maybe even a couple of t-storms will occur in association with the front.

Sea Fog: Given the abnormally warm and humid air mass, conditions would appear favorable for sea fog. Wind speeds however are a little too high today so we have just "patchy" wording. Winds could drop off enough for several hours prior to the frontal passage between about 11 pm and 3 am. This would be the prime time for any significant sea fog to occur. We have areas of dense fog in the forecast to account for this. As winds shift offshore in direction late the fog potential diminishes quickly.

Wednesday through Sunday: Marine conditions will deteriorate Wednesday into Thursday as strong high pressure builds into the area. We have issued Small Craft Advisories for all of the coastal waters due to increasing northeast winds and building seas. An Advisory is likely for the Charleston Harbor at some point as well, however it appears winds will not reach criteria until Wednesday night, so have held off on issuing for now. The worst conditions across the waters will occur late Wednesday night through Thursday, when gale-force gusts will be possible. Gale Watches and/or Warnings could be needed for at least portions of the waters. Conditions will improve on Friday, although advisories will persist as seas take a bit longer to subside. Low pressure will pass over or near the waters late week into early weekend, followed by a return to high pressure. No additional concerns are expected at this time.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Elevated tide cycles are expected late week due to increasing astronomical influences with the full moon on Thursday and strong northeasterly winds. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible with the morning high tides Thursday through Saturday. Coastal Flood Advisories could be required. Also of note, if significant rainfall occurs around the morning high tides Friday and Saturday, the potential for flooding of poor drainage areas could increase along the coast.

CLIMATE. Record Maximum Temps for the month of December . KCHS . 83F set on December 11, 1972. KSAV . 83F, set multiple times, the last on December 24, 2015.

Record Maximum Temps December 10th . KCHS . 82F set in 1972. KCXM . 79F set in 1943. KSAV . 82F set in 1972.

Record High Minimum Temps December 10th . KCHS . 65F set in 1986. KCXM . 62F last set in 2012. KSAV . 66F set in 1986.

EQUIPMENT. KCLX will remain down until further notice.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ352-354. Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ374. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ350.

NEAR TERM . SHORT TERM . LONG TERM . AVIATION . MARINE . TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . CLIMATE . EQUIPMENT .

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC	13 mi	87 min	Calm	58°F			1018 hPa	58°F
CHTS1	20 mi	54 min	SSW 7 G 9.9		57°F		1018.2 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC	21 mi	72 min	SW 8 G 11	60°F			1018.6 hPa (+0.0)	60°F
41033	30 mi	64 min	SW 7.8 G 12	60°F	58°F		1019 hPa
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2)	35 mi	124 min	SW 9.7 G 14	60°F	57°F		1018.9 hPa
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA	57 mi	60 min	SW 4.1 G 5.1	60°F	58°F		1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Charleston, SC

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5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

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11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

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Last 24hr

NE7 G10

N4

NE4

NE4

NW4

N3

N2

S2

SE4

SE2 G5

SE7

E3

S4

SW4

SW6

SW7

SW7 G12

SW6 G10

SW7 G11

SW9 G12

SW11 G19

SW7

SW6 G9

SW5 G9

1 day ago

N11 G14

N12 G15

N11

N10

N10

N9

N5 G8

N8 G11

NW7 G11

N9

N9 G12

N6

N3

N4

N5 G8

NE7

NE6

N5

NE6 G9

NE6

NE5

NE5 G8

NE5

E7

2 days ago

NW5

N5 G8

N5

N5 G8

N6 G9

N11

N7

N7

NE7

NE9

E11

NE14

NE11

NE10

NE9

NE8

N8 G11

N8

N11

N10 G13

N11 G14

N12

N12

N10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC	15 mi	17 min	SSW 8	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	64°F	60°F	88%	1018.3 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC	20 mi	16 min	SSW 9	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	62°F	60°F	93%	1017.6 hPa
Walterboro Lowcountry Regional Airport, SC	24 mi	17 min	S 4	10.00 mi	Fair	61°F	59°F	94%	1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJZI

Wind History from JZI (wind in knots)

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Last 24hr

NE5

NE4

NE5

Calm

N4

NE3

Calm

Calm

S5

SE4

SE5

S5

S6

SW5

S4

S6

S9 G14

S8

SW10

S9

SW9 G15

S6

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SW7

1 day ago

N8

N7

N7

N6

N6

N7

N8

N8

N12

N10

N7

N4

Calm

N4

N4

N5

NE5

N4

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Calm

NE5

NE5

NE4

NE3

2 days ago

N5

N5

N5

N4

N6

N5 G11

N7 G12

NE7

NE7

E9

E8

E8

NE8

NE8

NE7

NE6

NE7

N6

N6

N11

N8 G14

N8 G13

N9

N8

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Tide / Current Tables for Lower Toogoodoo Creek, 2 mi. above entrance, South Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (5,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC

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