Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sullivan's Island, SC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A fairly strong cap is in place today as the upper ridge continues to build west from the Atlantic. Visible satellite shows cumulus with relatively little vertical development.
Mesoanalysis shows in excess of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE so we could still see scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms through late afternoon. A bit of activity could continue into early this evening across far south GA as outflow boundaries from Gulf Coast convection drift north. Dry conditions expected overnight with lows in the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid level ridge will extend across the Southeast through much of the period, with a trough approaching late. At the surface, the forecast area will remain on the western periphery of high pressure. Large scale forcing for ascent is lacking so convection will largely be driven by daytime heating and mesoscale boundaries such as the sea breeze. Coverage will remain fairly limited with PoPs generally 20- 30% for Tuesday and Wednesday, and 30-40% for Thursday. High temperatures will peak in the low to mid 90s away from the coast, with humidity making it feel even hotter. Heat indices stay below Heat Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Mid level ridge weakens Thursday night into Friday as a shortwave passes across the mid-Atlantic states. A weak front will approach the region, but it will likely stall in the vicinity and eventually wash out. Ridging is expected to build over the eastern US over the weekend and early next week. Isolated to scattered diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s away from the immediate coast will combine with elevated humidity to yield heat indices mainly in the 100-105 range most afternoons. As it stands now, conditions remain shy of Heat Advisory criteria, but it will be something to watch.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Conditions are considerably less favorable for convection this afternoon due to a building ridge of high pressure. Scattered showers could develop near any terminal through late this afternoon but total coverage should be limited. VFR otherwise.

Extended Aviation Forecast: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly in the afternoon.

MARINE
A robust sea breeze will continue this afternoon along the coast. We could see a few gusts above 20 kt in Charleston Harbor later this afternoon. Relatively quiet conditions expected overnight.

Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. Southerly flow will persist with speeds generally 15 knots or less, except a bit higher along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor each afternoon with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-3 feet, with some occasional 4 footers in the outer portions of the waters.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.