Wednesday, July17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sullivan's Island, SC

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Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:29PM Wednesday July 17, 2019 6:36 AM EDT (10:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:16PMMoonset 5:55AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ330 Charleston Harbor- 329 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 kt. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. A chance of showers and tstms. Mariners are reminded that winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Unless otherwise noted, waves 1 foot or less. Charleston harbor water temperature 87 degrees.
AMZ300 329 Am Edt Wed Jul 17 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. The area will remain situated between inland low pressure and offshore high pressure into early next week. A stronger storm system may affect the area toward the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sullivan's Island, SC
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location: 32.77, -79.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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Fxus62 kchs 170806
afdchs
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston sc
406 am edt Wed jul 17 2019

Synopsis
The area will remain situated between inland low pressure and
offshore high pressure into early next week. A stronger storm
system may affect the area toward the middle of next week.

Near term through tonight
Today: the forecast region will lie between an atlantic ridge
with its axis roughly east-west along 30n, while a broad lee
side trough develops to the west-northwest. One interesting
feature that is worth noting is the remnants of t.C. Barry that
is now an open wave, that will move through ohio and toward
lake erie.

Meanwhile, the mid and upper levels will feature a strong
5930-5940 meter anticyclone centered over southern georgia and
northern florida, that gets nudged a little south in response to
a tail of vorticity that one could argue is associated with the
remains of barny that reaches the central and southern
appalachians late. While this could have a minor effect on the
formation of convection this afternoon, it looks like better
forcing will occur due to the sea breeze and the proximity to
the inland trough. The overall thermodynamic environment is
somewhat impressive, with the most noticeable feature the
mucape as great as 3000-4000 j kg. That along with pwat in
excess of 2 inches will lead to scattered t-storms developing
near and inland from the us-17 corridor starting around 1-2 pm
as we reach our convective temps. Dcape is forecast up near
1200-1500 j kg which will support the possibility of strong or
marginally severe downbursts of wind in isolated storms. Also
with a slow and erratic storm motion (mainly to the east-
southeast around 5 mph), there is also a heavy rain potential
with localized flooding concerns.

It'll be another hot day with h8 temps of 19-20c, or around 1-2
standard deviations above normal. This will produce MAX temps in
the mid and upper 90s most places inland from the intra-coastal
waters, with even some locations reaching the century mark from
allendale to evans, tattnall and candler county where the lower
rain chances will occur. Dew points will mix out some far
inland with a deep westerly flow, but will pool in the mid and
upper 70s along the coastal corridor. This will equate to max
heat indices reaching as high as 108-111f, and highest along the
coastal counties. For now we feel that with scattered storms
during the time of peak heating, advisory level heat indices of
110f will be too short-lived and cover too small of an area to
hoist a heat advisory. Should convection be delayed and or
coverage end up less than forecast, than we could issue an
advisory later this morning.

Tonight: convection will rapidly fade this evening and along
there are indications of some late night showers in the ocean
where the best convergence and instability will occur, we have
the bulk of the night free of showers and t-storms. Depending
upon how much convection occurs at the climate sites today, we
could be close to our record high minimums for kchs, kcxm and
ksav for both july 17 and 18.

Short term Thursday through Saturday
Moderate confidence this period. At the surface inland troughing
will prevail mainly north and west of the area while ridging
prevails to the southeast. The pattern will favor a few showers
and or storms mainly over the atlantic each morning with scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly inland during the
afternoon evening. No significant risk for severe storms is expected
due to the mostly pulse nature of the convection but certainly can't
completely rule out isolated severe storms each day because of
mesoscale boundaries like the sea breeze. The main weather story
this period will be the heat as temperatures remain well above
normal, mainly mid-upper 90s inland each afternoon with heat indices
peaking close to 110 degrees away from the immediate coast. Heat
advisories will be possible if confidence increases in greater
coverage duration of 110+ heat indices. Overnight lows could also be
near record high levels in the upper 70s to lower 80s, especially at
kchs kcxm.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
Moderate confidence this period. The low-level lee-side trough looks
to persist through the period while upper ridging gives way to more
troughing, especially toward the middle of next week. For now we
have more or less maintained a climatology persistence forecast with
rain chances mostly peaking around 30-40 percent each afternoon.

Temperatures should remain above normal through Monday night at
least. Heat indices should mostly peak in the 105-110 degree range
each afternoon through at least Monday, so the risk for heat
advisories appears low at this time.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Due to the wet grounds from convection on Tuesday, there could
be some ground fog around daybreak at kchs. Otherwise,VFR much
of the time through 06z Thursday at kchs and ksav. The exception
would be for possible temporary flight restrictions in tsra at
both sites from about 19-23z as activity develops along the sea
breeze.

Extended aviation outlook: low risk of flight restrictions from
mainly afternoon evening showers and thunderstorms through
early next week.

Marine
Today: the coastal waters will be located under the w-nw
portions of strong ridging in the ocean, while a well defined
and broad trough forms inland. The gradient does tighten a
little this afternoon and as sea breeze circulations develop and
feed into storms inland, SW winds of 10 kt or less will back to
the S and increase to at least 10-15 the second half of the
day. Seas of 1-2 ft this morning will climb to 2-3 ft this
afternoon with the higher winds.

Tonight: there is decent pinching that occurs between the inland
trough and atlantic ridge to generate s-sw winds as high as
15-20 kt. Some of the soundings show the potential for higher
speeds, perhaps even approaching 25 kt at times. But since
geostrophic winds at 1000 mb are only 20-25 kt, this should keep
us shy of any advisory levels, even though seas build another
foot.

Waterspouts: light winds and favorable moisture and instability
this morning concerns us regarding the formation of
waterspouts. But so far there have not been any convergent lines
over the nearby atlantic and the SPC non-supercell tornado
parameter is showing values less than 1 unit, which are both
favorable for the waterspout formation. We continue to monitor.

Thursday through Monday: inland low pressure and offshore high
pressure will lead to a fairly typical summertime pattern with
mainly south southwest winds through the period, generally highest
near the coast during the afternoon evening from the sea breeze.

However, not expecting any small craft advisories as significant
wave heights will be 4 feet or less.

Chs watches warnings advisories
Ga... None.

Sc... None.

Marine... None.

Near term...

short term...

long term...

aviation...

marine...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CHTS1 1 mi54 min S 2.9 G 4.1 83°F 86°F1018.4 hPa
FBIS1 - Folly Island, SC 6 mi36 min WSW 4.1 G 6 83°F 1018.8 hPa (-0.5)79°F
41029 - Capers Nearshore (CAP 2) 15 mi28 min SW 7.8 G 12 84°F 86°F1018.3 hPa
ACXS1 - ACE Basin Reserve, SC 32 mi51 min Calm 80°F 1018 hPa80°F
41033 43 mi28 min WSW 5.8 G 9.7 86°F 87°F1018.1 hPa
41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC 47 mi26 min WSW 9.7 G 12 83°F 85°F1018.5 hPa78°F

Wind History for Charleston, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charleston Executive Airport, SC7 mi41 minN 07.00 miFair79°F77°F94%1018.3 hPa
Mount Pleasant Regional-Faison Field, SC11 mi41 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist79°F78°F100%1018.3 hPa
Charleston, Charleston Air Force Base, SC12 mi1.7 hrsS 310.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F77°F94%1018 hPa

Wind History from CHS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalm344SE5SE8SE14NW8S8S7S9S5S4S5S4S3S3S3S4S3SW5
1 day agoCalmNW4W5CalmE5CalmCalmS36E20
G29
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2 days agoW4W6W7W10W9W8NW12
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NW7NW11NW85N7N6NW6W5NW6NW3NW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Johnson, South Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Charleston Harbor Entrance, South Carolina Current
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Charleston Harbor Entrance
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Wed -- 12:33 AM EDT     -2.67 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:36 AM EDT     1.42 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:40 PM EDT     -2.05 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:40 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:04 PM EDT     1.58 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:01 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.5-2.6-1.9-0.80.41.31.41.10.80.3-0.5-1.3-1.9-2-1.5-0.70.31.21.61.51.30.90-1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.