Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Estill, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
This afternoon, most of the convection has started to depart northeast as a vertically stacked area of low spins over western TN. However, convection that is more cellular in nature, has already started to develop across western GA. The convection is developing on the LFQ of an upper level jet streak. The CWA will remain in the warm sector between a lifting warm front and approaching cold front this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to range in the mid to upper 70s.

This evening, the cold front is timed to push over SE GA this evening, then over the SC Lowcountry late tonight. This boundary should focus the development of thunderstorms, possibly developing into a band of storms. These storms will push NE across the CWA this evening and tonight. The storms may remain strong to severe across SE GA this evening given lingering instability and shear, with damaging wind gusts the primary hazard. SPC has highlighted the region with a marginal risk for severe weather. Low temperature are forecast to range in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
A closed mid level low over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys at the start of the period will continue to slowly lift north-northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, eventually opening up into a trough. Notably less convective coverage is expected overall than previous days, but there will still be at least scattered showers and thunderstorms developing each day. Higher activity/PoPs should become more focused over South Carolina on Wednesday. Highs will be within a couple degrees of normal. Lows will largely stay in the 60s.

As the mid level trough axis shifts off the East coast, ridging will begin to build into the Southeast on Thursday. The surface will largely feature higher pressure offshore and a weak trough developing inland. Dry and quiet weather is expected with warming temperatures. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s to around 90 in most locations away from the beaches.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Mid level ridge will largely persist over the Southeast through late week, although it appears to flatten some on the weekend as models indicate a weak shortwave passing over the Carolinas. At the surface, high pressure will remain offshore while troughing resides inland. A weak front could approach over the weekend, but unclear if it is actually able to make it through the area. Rain chances are fairly low through the period, with only 20% PoPs highlighted in the forecast Saturday and Sunday. Perhaps more notably will be the warming temperatures. Highs are expected to reach the low to mid 90s, with even higher heat indices, possibly exceeding 100 in spots.
Lows will also remain above climo.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Conditions vary across the region, with MVFR cigs occurring along the coast becoming VFR inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are pushing into our southeastern GA counties, with MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys as rain is falling, and will be moving into the low country counties throughout the overnight hours. Guidance continues to hint that build-down-stratus may result in patchy fog across SE GA, so have included mention of IFR vsbys at SAV. Expect conditions to improve slowly throughout the morning hours, with mostly clear skies into the afternoon hours. Isolated showers/storms develop during the afternoon, though given the areal coverage have not included mention at any of the TAF sites.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in showers/thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, prevailing VFR.

MARINE
Thunderstorms will remain common across the marine zones today and tonight, the greatest coverage this morning with another band of storms this evening. Some of these storms could produce wind gusts of 34 kts or greater, a waterspout cannot be ruled out this morning.
The pattern will support southeast winds between 10 to 15 kts with gusts around 25 kts across the Atlantic waters. Seas will build to 4 to 7 ft by this afternoon, then slowly decreasing after midnight tonight. Small Craft Advisories have been posted to highlight the wind and wave conditions for today into tonight.

Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions will vastly improve on Tuesday with the remaining Small Craft Advisories expected to be down by early afternoon. No additional concerns are expected through the remainder of the week with generally south to southwest winds 15 knots or less and seas settling into the 2-4 ft range.

Rip Currents, the combination of onshore flow and 2 to 3 breakers may produce rip currents along the SC/GA coast today. Breakers could exceed 3 ft along the Charleston County coast this afternoon.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-374.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ352.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ354.